4/27/2014 7:33 AM (edited)
DI pulldown? I thought that was impossible! Congrats and PLEASE tell me what you said to the guy to get him to come to your school. I could always use a few more DI recruits on my team :D

Nachopuzzle, you got it, I'll have a look. WIS link options are not available for Chromebooks but here is the link to nacho's poll:

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=476972&Page=1&TopicsTimeframe=30
4/27/2014 8:01 AM
If you have an A or better prestige, some local D1 recruits will be pulldownable. It's no different than if they are d2 except they most be local.
4/27/2014 6:41 PM
I see, so the 70 mile rule works for DI too, they can possibly become DII recruits. Wow that's awesome to know, thanks Trenton!
4/27/2014 10:28 PM
The whole D1 pull down thing is nice, but I haven't had too much luck with it.  It's not uncommon for the D1 recruits to suck as well.  Also, if they are ranked I have never seen them consider a D3 school.  Transfers that were ranked will consider a D3 school.  Up until last season I though Mr. Basketball of a state also would not consider D3… but then I got the Alaska Mr. Basketball (as a drop down obviously).  But anyway, D1 pull downs are great if you can find a good player that is accepting.  It seems rare to me, but maybe I have just been unlucky.
4/28/2014 12:27 AM
Posted by ezekialstarr on 4/27/2014 7:33:00 AM (view original):
DI pulldown? I thought that was impossible! Congrats and PLEASE tell me what you said to the guy to get him to come to your school. I could always use a few more DI recruits on my team :D

Nachopuzzle, you got it, I'll have a look. WIS link options are not available for Chromebooks but here is the link to nacho's poll:

http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?TopicID=476972&Page=1&TopicsTimeframe=30
thanks eze.
4/28/2014 11:17 AM
Some new names in the pre-season rankings top 10.  Will be interesting to see how they pan out.

Piedmont starts in the #1 spot.  His most recent title in Rupp D3 was in these same circumstances (6 Srs + 6 Fr) - so don't count him out just because of youth.
4/28/2014 11:27 AM
Predictions for all teams: onedrive.live.com/redir
Rosters for all teams: onedrive.live.com/redir

Tournament Projections:
Rank Team Conference Wins Conf Wins Rating seed
1 Millsaps University 23.80 15.29 57.94 1
2 Nichols Coast 24.29 15.45 56.57 1
3 Penn St. Altoona CC 23.31 15.89 56.40 1
4 Piedmont USA South 22.51 14.26 55.95 1
5 Johnson and Wales Great NE 23.57 15.04 55.95 2
6 Webster St. Louis 24.40 15.30 55.77 2
7 Palm Beach Atlantic USA South 21.92 13.99 55.61 2
8 Allegheny N. Coast 22.56 13.88 55.21 2
9 Dallas University 21.69 13.29 55.15 3
10 Wisconsin, La Crosse Wisconsin 25.25 15.76 55.09 3
11 Ursinus Centennial 22.95 15.16 54.87 3
12 Austin ASC 22.52 14.23 54.62 3
13 Calvin Michigan 22.93 15.46 54.40 4
14 Hamline Minn. IAC 24.02 15.63 54.32 4
15 Colorado S. Cal. 23.40 13.84 54.31 4
16 Whittier S. Cal. 22.36 13.79 54.20 4
17 Ohio Wesleyan N. Coast 21.07 12.32 54.06 5
18 Hardin-Simmons ASC 21.63 13.59 53.80 5
19 California Tech. S. Cal. 23.28 14.29 53.72 5
20 Texas Lutheran ASC 21.73 14.41 53.55 5
21 Capital Ohio 22.39 15.14 53.45 6
22 Wittenberg N. Coast 18.16 11.33 53.43 6
23 Oglethorpe USA South 19.97 12.12 53.43 6
24 Westfield St. NESCAC 24.38 14.73 53.39 6
25 SUNY Cortland SUNYAC 22.85 15.23 53.38 7
26 Ramapo New Jersey 22.41 15.02 53.35 7
27 Dickinson Centennial 18.44 13.70 53.18 7
28 U.S. Merchant Marines Skyline 20.02 14.88 53.15 7
29 Sewanee University 17.55 10.46 53.07 8
30 W. New England Great NE 20.06 11.83 52.94 8
31 Kenyon N. Coast 20.20 10.90 52.93 8
32 Millikin CCIW 23.04 13.64 52.83 8
33 Mount St. Mary Skyline 21.97 13.93 52.57 9
34 Chapman Northwest 20.12 13.45 52.32 9
35 Worcester St. NESCAC 19.71 13.85 52.26 9
36 Louisiana University 16.77 9.27 52.24 9
37 Concordia (IL) St. Louis 19.70 12.21 52.21 10
38 New England Coast 18.12 11.37 51.88 10
39 Earlham N. Coast 15.27 9.22 51.79 10
40 Wooster N. Coast 15.46 8.91 51.75 10
41 Buena Vista Iowa IAC 21.69 13.41 51.70 11
42 Trinity (TX) University 15.68 8.30 51.69 11
43 E. Nazarene Coast 19.54 12.75 51.63 11
44 Vassar Empire 8 20.08 13.99 51.57 11
45 S. Vermont Great NE 15.27 9.75 51.56 12
46 Christopher Newport USA South 18.84 11.52 51.56 12
47 Willamette Northwest 16.42 12.66 51.54 12
48 Howard Payne ASC 17.70 11.57 51.51 12
49 Maranatha Baptist Bible Michigan 20.20 13.29 51.48 13
50 Cazenovia New Jersey 20.31 13.70 51.47 13
51 CSU, Eastbay S. Cal. 18.65 10.91 51.37 13
52 Emmanuel Great NE 13.41 9.49 51.36 13
53 N. Park CCIW 17.66 11.69 51.32 14
54 Medgar Evers CUNY 19.38 13.17 51.30 14
55 Wabash N. Coast 16.32 8.15 51.26 14
61 Husson N.Atlantic 20.47 13.76 51.01 14
67 Lynchburg ODAC 17.68 13.50 50.79 15
69 Carroll Midwest 21.71 14.52 50.76 15
76 Clarkson Upstate 20.35 13.39 50.59 15
81 Misericordia Penn. 22.14 13.26 50.50 15
85 Defiance Heartland 20.51 13.25 50.40 16
86 Frostburg St. Freedom 18.91 12.48 50.38 16
92 UMass, Dartmouth Little E. 18.94 12.31 50.17 16
116 Hood Capital 18.56 12.26 49.32 16





4/28/2014 3:13 PM (edited)
Way Too Early Final Four

It's back...it's not bigger, and we won't even claim it's better. But, hey, 1 out of 3 is still worth millions in baseball, right? As always, in alphabetical order...

Austin (ricosuave21) was 23-7 last season, advancing to the second round of the national tournament. Rico will be running with a 10-man rotation this season, which always leaves open the door to an injury bug and questions about how the team might fare against uptempo competition (especially since rico runs a press), but there's no denying the values are there to make this an elite team this season. Austin will "steak" its title hopes to Andrew Salisbury, who averaged 11.4 points per game last season after transferring in from Kent St. (because of Austin's outstanding "Rocks for Jocks" department). Nathan Thompson will be a steals magnet and should end his career in Austin's top 25 in the category.

Colorado (bdpoor) went 25-5, but got ejected in the opening round of the national tournament. That shouldn't be an issue this year as the team features an amazing inside-outside game. Justin Johnson (10.0 ppg last season) will jack them up from the perimeter and give opponents fits from the outside. But you can't extend the defense too far, because inside lies Mark Treadwell (9.4 ppg/8.7 rpg last season) waiting to penalize teams that open the middle too much. Like Austin, Colorado is running with 10 this season, which leaves open the same risks and depth-related questions.

Hamline (foofighter13) was 28-2 last season but, like Colorado, was sitting at home as a spectator after the opening round of NT play. That shouldn't be an issue this season. The beauty about Hamline's roster in my eyes is that there isn't a superstar. This is a roster built for balance and, on any given night, there's 4 or 5 names on it that COULD go off on you. Good luck picking whose night it is tonight when you set your game plan against Hamline. Worth noting, big man Phillip Hall sports an A+ free throw rating. That's noteworthy because 1. I'm not sure I've seen an A+ rating at D3 and 2. he's a center, which by definition means he should be netistically challenged from the charity stripe.

Millsaps (brianxavier) was 20-9 last season and reached the second round of the national tournament. Millsaps, like Hamline above, returend everyone from last season's roster and appears poised to make a title run in Season 73. Michael Englehart is just criminal good. After transferring in from Kent St. last season joining the team out of JUCO two seasons ago after his childhood dreams of playing at Kent St. fell through, all he did was average 10.7 ppg last year, a figure that could grow significantly this season. Shon Leos (bonus points for the name alone!) is the likely beneficiary of the attention folks will be forced to pay to Englehart...it's a role that served him well last season with 10.9 ppg to his credit. Aside from that, Millsaps opens the season with Ath and Def values in the mid 60s, which makes them pop in a comparison with pretty much every team in Rupp right now.


One final note...I don't know what frankgrimes did to national voters, but don't sleep on Penn St. Altoona, which strikes me as being under-rated by about 10-15 spots to open the season. Absolutely a whiff by the pollsters in my opinion.
4/28/2014 3:12 PM (edited)
Thanks for the correction brian...now I must try to figure out where the Kent St. reference that I scrawled down belongs...

[ETA: Found it...that should have been with Salisbury and Austin. Changes made accordingly, with bonus humor]
4/28/2014 4:06 PM
Englehart -  "dreams of playing for Kent St. fell through"

Outstanding.
4/28/2014 5:49 PM
I just went through my last three seasons at TLU and compared both my actual overall and conference records with the bullman17's predictions. Each number was spot-on or within one game. The NT seeding was a little off, but that's an effective projection formula you're using!
4/28/2014 6:33 PM
Englehart's IQ's still aren't quite there yet... and he's still already one of the ten best players in the league. He definitely has the potential to be in the running for player of the year when all's said and done.
4/29/2014 10:59 AM
Posted by ajlillie on 4/28/2014 5:49:00 PM (view original):
I just went through my last three seasons at TLU and compared both my actual overall and conference records with the bullman17's predictions. Each number was spot-on or within one game. The NT seeding was a little off, but that's an effective projection formula you're using!
If it was predicting the number of wins accurately within one or so but the seeding was off, you may want to take a look at your scheduling and adjust it if the actual seed you got was worse.  If you had an easy strength of schedule you may want to toughen it up and if your strength of schedule was pretty hard, you may want to lighten it up a little.  
4/29/2014 12:34 PM
Posted by bullman17 on 4/29/2014 10:59:00 AM (view original):
Posted by ajlillie on 4/28/2014 5:49:00 PM (view original):
I just went through my last three seasons at TLU and compared both my actual overall and conference records with the bullman17's predictions. Each number was spot-on or within one game. The NT seeding was a little off, but that's an effective projection formula you're using!
If it was predicting the number of wins accurately within one or so but the seeding was off, you may want to take a look at your scheduling and adjust it if the actual seed you got was worse.  If you had an easy strength of schedule you may want to toughen it up and if your strength of schedule was pretty hard, you may want to lighten it up a little.  
For my part, I notice that you generally predict my record accurately, but at least last year, my seed was significantly better than predicted. I assume that your seed prediction is based on team quality, and that I can effectively beat your seed prediction with strategic scheduling? 
4/29/2014 1:32 PM
I was a #10 seed last season, when the prediction was at #6. Overall I'm impressed with how close it is. How do you generate the estimated numbers of wins? I see lots of iffy equations or analytics on here - I'm wondering how yours is so close.
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