Posted by bad_luck on 5/15/2014 11:37:00 AM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/15/2014 9:21:00 AM (view original):All outs aren't perfectly equal, as we see with the run matrix. 75% of the time, all outs are exactly the same. 6% of the time, a productive out nets you a slight gain in run scoring. 19% of the time, an out in play is either neutral or a complete disaster.
I think we can agree that "all outs are equal, so it doesn't matter how they're made" is a pretty dumb statement.
If you understand baseball, you know that hitters don't get to pick and choose when and how they make their outs. Guys who avoid strikeouts and make a lot of outs in play also hit into a lot of double plays.
We can also look at it on the team level and see that there is absolutely zero correlation between run scoring and strikeout totals.
Hitters also don't get to pick and choose what happens when they put a ball in play. BABIP says they get a hit around 30% of time time. Actually, a little higher than that, since BABIP inexplicably excludes HR's. Add another roughly 2% of the time, there will be an error.
So let's say 33% of the time, something positive happens offensively when a ball is put in play.
What percentage of the time does something positive happen offensively when a batter strikes out?
You seem to be arguing on the premise that if a hitter KNOWS that putting a ball in play will result in an out, he might as well just strikeout, since an out on a BIP with a runner on first could be "a complete disaster". Unless Nostradamus, Jean Dixon or the Amazing Kreskin is in your lineup, that's probably not a good premise to base an argument on.