All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > MLB: a bag of a**holes.
5/29/2014 3:48 PM
So you're also saying that if he shortened up his swing on 2 strikes, not only would he not miss the ball, he'd hit it 330 feet?  I don't think there would be many of those.
5/29/2014 3:53 PM
Yea, the point on Jeter isn't so much him, as much as it is, it could go the other way too.  You want the guy who strikes out 180 times to strike out less to get to that spot on where you think contact and power should meet.  I could argue the guy who is a .290/10 homer guy with 80 strikeouts and say "he should swing for more power."  Daniel Murphy on the Mets comes to mind.
5/29/2014 3:53 PM

A guy capable of hitting a ball 450 ft with a full swing should be able to hit it 330 with a shortened swing.    You disagree?

5/29/2014 3:54 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Right, except that correlation doesn't equal causation.  There isn't a correlation to striking out and scoring runs when you look at the teams, individually.  The teams that aren't scoring runs aren't necessarily the teams that are striking out more.
The teams that aren't scoring runs are the teams that either have less talented offensive personnel, or play in ballparks that tend to depress offense.  Or both.

Bigger sample size > smaller sample size.

What?  Yes, the teams with less talented offensive personnel aren't scoring runs.  But it doesn't mean they are striking out more than other teams.
I didn't say they were.  I said they were scoring less runs because they're not very good offensive players.

That's why you can't pick out individual teams and compare them because they come in all different ranges of talent levels.  Take all teams as a whole, and then you've got something valid to look at.
5/29/2014 3:56 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/29/2014 3:53:00 PM (view original):

A guy capable of hitting a ball 450 ft with a full swing should be able to hit it 330 with a shortened swing.    You disagree?

Talking about the same pitch? Yes, sure. We just did this, right?
5/29/2014 3:56 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Right, except that correlation doesn't equal causation.  There isn't a correlation to striking out and scoring runs when you look at the teams, individually.  The teams that aren't scoring runs aren't necessarily the teams that are striking out more.
The teams that aren't scoring runs are the teams that either have less talented offensive personnel, or play in ballparks that tend to depress offense.  Or both.

Bigger sample size > smaller sample size.

What?  Yes, the teams with less talented offensive personnel aren't scoring runs.  But it doesn't mean they are striking out more than other teams.
I didn't say they were.  I said they were scoring less runs because they're not very good offensive players.

That's why you can't pick out individual teams and compare them because they come in all different ranges of talent levels.  Take all teams as a whole, and then you've got something valid to look at.
You're saying striking so much is a bad thing.  But there are MANY bad offensive players who don't strike out much.  There are MANY good offensive players who strike out a lot.  Isn't that odd to you?
5/29/2014 4:00 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 2:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/29/2014 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 2:20:00 PM (view original):
It's better to put the ball in play than to strike out.  It's also better to hit the ball hard than to bunt the ball back to the pitcher.  There are different "levels" to putting the ball in play.
Why does every struck ball, with two strikes, have to be a dribbler to the pitcher?   We're talking about 400ish of the best baseball players in the world.
I think the assumption is that a "just making contact with 2 strikes" means that you swing like an eight year old girl.
You never answered this:

Why don't teams score more runs when they strike out less?
2013 MLB totals:  19.9% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.17 runs/game for all teams
2008 MLB totals:  17.5% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.65 runs/game for all teams
2003 MLB totals:  16.4% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.73 runs/game for all teams

Do you see a trend between strikeouts and runs scored?

I do.

A) If you look at scoring for teams, there's no correlation between Ks and runs scored.

B) When looking at the entire league, you need to do more than just cherry pick three seasons. Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables.

Strikeouts are absolutely up in 2014. The K/game rate for the entire league is over 2 standard deviations up from the 1969-2014 mean. If that's causing a problem, there should be some sort of corresponding reduction in runs scored. There isn't. The runs/game total for 2014 is easily within one standard deviation of the 1969-2014 mean.
"Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables."

If "tons of variables" are involved, then how can you specifically pick one variable (strikeouts) in the equation and say "No, that has nothing to do with it"?  Perhaps the "tons of (other) variables" are masking the negative impact that strikeouts are having on runs scored.

5/29/2014 4:02 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Right, except that correlation doesn't equal causation.  There isn't a correlation to striking out and scoring runs when you look at the teams, individually.  The teams that aren't scoring runs aren't necessarily the teams that are striking out more.
The teams that aren't scoring runs are the teams that either have less talented offensive personnel, or play in ballparks that tend to depress offense.  Or both.

Bigger sample size > smaller sample size.

What?  Yes, the teams with less talented offensive personnel aren't scoring runs.  But it doesn't mean they are striking out more than other teams.
I didn't say they were.  I said they were scoring less runs because they're not very good offensive players.

That's why you can't pick out individual teams and compare them because they come in all different ranges of talent levels.  Take all teams as a whole, and then you've got something valid to look at.
You're saying striking so much is a bad thing.  But there are MANY bad offensive players who don't strike out much.  There are MANY good offensive players who strike out a lot.  Isn't that odd to you?
Here's the top 15 single-season strikeout seasons for hitters.  How many of these guys are "elite"?

Rank Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Bats
1. Mark Reynolds (25) 223 2009 R
2. Adam Dunn (32) 222 2012 L
3. Chris Carter (26) 212 2013 R
4. Mark Reynolds (26) 211 2010 R
5. Drew Stubbs (26) 205 2011 R
6. Mark Reynolds (24) 204 2008 R
7. Chris Davis (27) 199 2013 L
  Adam Dunn (30) 199 2010 L
  Ryan Howard (27) 199 2007 L
  Ryan Howard (28) 199 2008 L
11. Jack Cust (29) 197 2008 L
12. Mark Reynolds (27) 196 2011 R
13. Adam Dunn (24) 195 2004 L
  Curtis Granderson (31) 195 2012 L


5/29/2014 4:02 PM
We seem to agree that certain types should do certain things.   I'm not sure I want Chris Davis shortening his swing but he's a good example of someone who might benefit.  His homers aren't fence-scrapers.

I'm not sure where the disagreement starts unless it's the "certain type".
5/29/2014 4:05 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 4:02:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:56:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:21:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 3:17:00 PM (view original):
Right, except that correlation doesn't equal causation.  There isn't a correlation to striking out and scoring runs when you look at the teams, individually.  The teams that aren't scoring runs aren't necessarily the teams that are striking out more.
The teams that aren't scoring runs are the teams that either have less talented offensive personnel, or play in ballparks that tend to depress offense.  Or both.

Bigger sample size > smaller sample size.

What?  Yes, the teams with less talented offensive personnel aren't scoring runs.  But it doesn't mean they are striking out more than other teams.
I didn't say they were.  I said they were scoring less runs because they're not very good offensive players.

That's why you can't pick out individual teams and compare them because they come in all different ranges of talent levels.  Take all teams as a whole, and then you've got something valid to look at.
You're saying striking so much is a bad thing.  But there are MANY bad offensive players who don't strike out much.  There are MANY good offensive players who strike out a lot.  Isn't that odd to you?
Here's the top 15 single-season strikeout seasons for hitters.  How many of these guys are "elite"?

Rank Player (age that year) Strikeouts Year Bats
1. Mark Reynolds (25) 223 2009 R
2. Adam Dunn (32) 222 2012 L
3. Chris Carter (26) 212 2013 R
4. Mark Reynolds (26) 211 2010 R
5. Drew Stubbs (26) 205 2011 R
6. Mark Reynolds (24) 204 2008 R
7. Chris Davis (27) 199 2013 L
  Adam Dunn (30) 199 2010 L
  Ryan Howard (27) 199 2007 L
  Ryan Howard (28) 199 2008 L
11. Jack Cust (29) 197 2008 L
12. Mark Reynolds (27) 196 2011 R
13. Adam Dunn (24) 195 2004 L
  Curtis Granderson (31) 195 2012 L


Rob Deer says "Damn.  Those ******* strike out a lot.   I'm a contact hitter if I played today."
5/29/2014 4:05 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 4:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 2:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/29/2014 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 2:20:00 PM (view original):
It's better to put the ball in play than to strike out.  It's also better to hit the ball hard than to bunt the ball back to the pitcher.  There are different "levels" to putting the ball in play.
Why does every struck ball, with two strikes, have to be a dribbler to the pitcher?   We're talking about 400ish of the best baseball players in the world.
I think the assumption is that a "just making contact with 2 strikes" means that you swing like an eight year old girl.
You never answered this:

Why don't teams score more runs when they strike out less?
2013 MLB totals:  19.9% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.17 runs/game for all teams
2008 MLB totals:  17.5% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.65 runs/game for all teams
2003 MLB totals:  16.4% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.73 runs/game for all teams

Do you see a trend between strikeouts and runs scored?

I do.

A) If you look at scoring for teams, there's no correlation between Ks and runs scored.

B) When looking at the entire league, you need to do more than just cherry pick three seasons. Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables.

Strikeouts are absolutely up in 2014. The K/game rate for the entire league is over 2 standard deviations up from the 1969-2014 mean. If that's causing a problem, there should be some sort of corresponding reduction in runs scored. There isn't. The runs/game total for 2014 is easily within one standard deviation of the 1969-2014 mean.
"Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables."

If "tons of variables" are involved, then how can you specifically pick one variable (strikeouts) in the equation and say "No, that has nothing to do with it"?  Perhaps the "tons of (other) variables" are masking the negative impact that strikeouts are having on runs scored.

You've been shown the correlation of runs to Ks.  There isn't one.
5/29/2014 4:06 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/29/2014 4:02:00 PM (view original):
We seem to agree that certain types should do certain things.   I'm not sure I want Chris Davis shortening his swing but he's a good example of someone who might benefit.  His homers aren't fence-scrapers.

I'm not sure where the disagreement starts unless it's the "certain type".
I don't think Chris Davis should really change his approach.
5/29/2014 4:12 PM
Chris Davis had a fantastic year, finished 3rd in MVP voting.  Adam Dunn will probably hit 500+ homers.  Ryan Howard was great in that time period - he won an MVP.  You make it sound like striking out is a good thing.
5/29/2014 4:27 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 4:00:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 3:35:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 3:11:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bad_luck on 5/29/2014 2:33:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tecwrg on 5/29/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 5/29/2014 2:25:00 PM (view original):
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 2:20:00 PM (view original):
It's better to put the ball in play than to strike out.  It's also better to hit the ball hard than to bunt the ball back to the pitcher.  There are different "levels" to putting the ball in play.
Why does every struck ball, with two strikes, have to be a dribbler to the pitcher?   We're talking about 400ish of the best baseball players in the world.
I think the assumption is that a "just making contact with 2 strikes" means that you swing like an eight year old girl.
You never answered this:

Why don't teams score more runs when they strike out less?
2013 MLB totals:  19.9% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.17 runs/game for all teams
2008 MLB totals:  17.5% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.65 runs/game for all teams
2003 MLB totals:  16.4% strikeout rate for all hitters.  4.73 runs/game for all teams

Do you see a trend between strikeouts and runs scored?

I do.

A) If you look at scoring for teams, there's no correlation between Ks and runs scored.

B) When looking at the entire league, you need to do more than just cherry pick three seasons. Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables.

Strikeouts are absolutely up in 2014. The K/game rate for the entire league is over 2 standard deviations up from the 1969-2014 mean. If that's causing a problem, there should be some sort of corresponding reduction in runs scored. There isn't. The runs/game total for 2014 is easily within one standard deviation of the 1969-2014 mean.
"Runs scored will vary depending on tons of variables."

If "tons of variables" are involved, then how can you specifically pick one variable (strikeouts) in the equation and say "No, that has nothing to do with it"?  Perhaps the "tons of (other) variables" are masking the negative impact that strikeouts are having on runs scored.

It's actually pretty easy.

You can do it the way I did above, which is certainly not fool proof, and take a look at each stat's standard deviation. K's are above the normal range but run scoring is still easily within the normal range.

Another way to do it is scatter plots. When something correlates, like OBP and runs, the plot looks something like this:


When there's no correlation, it looks similar to this chart of runs per game and caught stealing per game:


Pulling all of the runs/game for both leagues from 1910 to 2014 and plotting that against the K's per game for the same time frame, you get this:




5/29/2014 5:36 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 5/29/2014 4:12:00 PM (view original):
Chris Davis had a fantastic year, finished 3rd in MVP voting.  Adam Dunn will probably hit 500+ homers.  Ryan Howard was great in that time period - he won an MVP.  You make it sound like striking out is a good thing.
Dave Kingman hit 400 homers when 400 homers was fanfuckingtastic.    Great player?
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