7/26/2014 2:17 PM
9 Wentworth Tech. 55.16 36.71% 8.14% 3.33% 0.77% 0.08% 0.01%
1 Millsaps 61.35 100.00% 94.62% 70.29% 54.36% 40.01% 24.98%


10,000 to 1 odds to win the finals vs 4 to 1.

7/26/2014 7:35 PM
Posted by raucous on 7/26/2014 2:17:00 PM (view original):
9 Wentworth Tech. 55.16 36.71% 8.14% 3.33% 0.77% 0.08% 0.01%
1 Millsaps 61.35 100.00% 94.62% 70.29% 54.36% 40.01% 24.98%


10,000 to 1 odds to win the finals vs 4 to 1.

No pressure...
7/26/2014 8:15 PM
I think this is where you say your opponent is underrated and you don't expect to win....
7/27/2014 11:50 AM
Year End Stats: onedrive.live.com/redir

7/27/2014 4:05 PM
nice work as always bullman.

Guys, I read in an old developer's chat that LP did not matter for PG/SG. Does that hold true for today's engine as well, or does LP factor into today's 1 and 2 positions?
7/27/2014 4:56 PM
LP matters for guards.  That was changed in new engines.  I don't think it weighs as heavily for guards compared to bigs, but it definitely matters.  In fact, I think that's one reason my guy did okay this year.  I should add, I don't know if I have read anywhere that it matters more for guards vs. bigs, but that just seems like it should be the case.
7/28/2014 5:44 AM
Thanks Brian :) I have read in several places that PER matters less as you move towards the basket so it would make sense for LP to matter less as you move away from the basket. They say an 80/30 LP/PER is more valuable than a 95/1 combo though because the former is less of a one-dimensional shooter, even if he doesn't take a single 3..
7/29/2014 6:49 PM
The way I've viewed it is PER is jump shooting and 3's, or anything outside the paint. The real question is, at what point is LP rating taken over PER rating. I consider baseline shots or "just outside the paint" to still be LP shots but I'm still reviewing this assumption.

I think the 80/30 vs. 95/1 is not a fair comparison either. Its 110 points of rating versus 96, plus the real difference between LP rating is a mere 15 points, and 80 is already very high. I think a more proper comparison would be 95/1 vs.66/30 for the conclusion you are attempting to draw.

And in this case, the engine is going to make a decision if he's going to take a jump shot versus a shot in the paint. In the 95/1, its should be disproportionately shots in the paint, and he should almost never shoot jumpers. Therefore, you want the highest rating you can. In the case of the 65/30 guy, the engine is going to have a more even mix of per/lp shots, based on his ratings, and what you'll get is a player who's slightly above average in the LP and bad in the PER taking shots. All other things equal, I want the 95 LP guy. If you want shots taken away from the basket, then get a second scorer who shoots outside the paint.
7/30/2014 8:21 AM
This is what I think......

The game decides what type of shot a player takes. There are at two types of shots, maybe more. They are:

* Jump Shot- The shooter uses mostly SPD/PER and the defender uses mostly DEF/SPD/ATH
* Post up - The shooter used mostly ATH/LP and the defender uses mostly DEF/ATH/BLK
* Drive- The shooter uses SPD/BH and the defender uses mostly DEF/SPD/BLK/ATH

Based on the how good the shooter is at each shot, the game decides which shot he takes. Guys with a 90 PER and 1 LP will take mostly jump shots.

What I am trying to figure out is:

Does the game factor in the defenders skills when choosing the shot type? Meaning will a guard with a LP in the 20's post up a defending guard with a 1 BLK and lower ATH even if the shooter is a better "jump shooter".

How do the SPD/BH guards really work? I am just guessing that it is defended by a equation including SPD/DEF/ATH/BLK.

How much does having a higher "secondary" stat (LP for jump shooters and PER for posteruppers) really help? I know a high PER helps for bigs but does having a reasonable per/lp hurt the 90/90 SPD/BH guard at D3? I have a guard that will be 90/90 but has a 20 LP and only a 10 ATH on one team. If he posts up he'll be way worse than if he drives.

Just thinking out loud.....
7/30/2014 11:25 AM
Presuming your thoughts are correct, to what degree is the user/coach able to control these decisions? For example, does adjusting the 3-pt frequency for a player change what type of shot he takes (jump shot, post up, drive), or does it just control how far away from the basket his jump shots will be once the engine decides he's going to take a jump shot?
7/30/2014 2:18 PM
I also wonder if type of offense impacts the shot selection. Clearly fastbreak offense teams bring in these guys with very low PER that score effectively. Dickinson's squad is a good example.

I would suspect there are 3 types of shots - 3pt, mid range, layup/low post. It would be interesting if there was a "drive to the basket" type of shot, but I would guess that ends up being low post?

I couldn't find anything on the developer chats about this. But I am sure there has been other discussion on the boards.
7/30/2014 2:29 PM
Posted by bullman17 on 7/27/2014 11:50:00 AM (view original):
Year End Stats: onedrive.live.com/redir

help me out bullman RE: PF%

does that mean % of possessions defense fouls opposing team?

and for offense stat does it mean % of possessions offensive player is fouled?
7/30/2014 2:38 PM
If my view is correct, then adjusting the 3 point frequency only controls how many 3's he takes. His PER to LP rating will determine where he takes the shot from there, absent other factors. Therefore, a 70 PER player with 5 LP will almost never shoot in the paint, but he will also not take 3's.

In the example of Brian's player, this was a guard with no PER but high LP. Therefore, most of his shots were in the paint, disregarding the fact his listed position or even the position on the depth chart he was playing was guard. I'm assuming he was set at -2 as well since he never shot a 3 all season.

Again, this is generally speaking. Certainly there's layups on breakaways, and on assists often result in a layup, even for guards. The game is complex, and I haven't checked to see layups by guards are due to possible distribution set by the coach. I'm still reviewing this because I'm doing a lot of testing on zone defense and answers to these questions are important on how to recruit and play against it.
7/30/2014 3:15 PM
Posted by brianxavier on 7/30/2014 2:29:00 PM (view original):
Posted by bullman17 on 7/27/2014 11:50:00 AM (view original):
Year End Stats: onedrive.live.com/redir

help me out bullman RE: PF%

does that mean % of possessions defense fouls opposing team?

and for offense stat does it mean % of possessions offensive player is fouled?
Pretty much, yes.  I found a formula that would give the approximate number of possessions that a team had based upon their stats and I used that to calculate points per possession, turnover percentage, and foul percentage.  The thing with fouls is that multiple fouls can be committed in a single possession which will make the number a little higher than it should be.
7/31/2014 8:34 AM
I read that high BH will make your guards more likely to be slashers.  Also, sublight I agree that if I had a choice between 100 LP / 0 PER and 70 LP / 30 PER I would rather have a big man with 100 LP.  That's me though.
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