All Forums > SimLeague Basketball > Theme Leagues > ODLXLVIII Evals **HALFWAY DONE WITH PREDICTIONS!**
7/3/2014 6:32 PM (edited)
          usage DEF Minutes Efg 0rb dreb% ast%
    Russell Westbrook 13-14 Thunder PG 34.6  66  1412 48.0 4.3 15.1 28.0    
    Karl Malone 96-97 Jazz PF 32.7  90  2998 55.0 8.3 23.4 15.6    
    Terrell Brandon 95-96 Cavaliers PG 27.6  81  2570 50.7 2.2 10.0 27.2    
    Josh Smith 12-13 Hawks SF 26.9  86  2683 49.1 5.5 20.0 15.4    
    Kyle Korver 13-14 Hawks SG 14.3  45  2408 62.6 1.0 11.6 11.2    
    Eric Snow 06-07 Cavaliers PG 11.6  60  1929 41.7 2.0 9.1 23.2    
    Dennis Rodman 91-92 Pistons PF 11.1  90  3301 56.4 17.1 31.6 7.1    
7/4/2014 2:29 PM
I loved the first three picks and really disliked the final 4 jhsukow. It looks like you have just over $3 Million in salary to cover at least 2000 minutes which means really weak bench role players. Westbrook has a hghest usage of all of your players so for 17 mpg he will get more shots that Karl Malone will which is a bad thing. Josh Smith is a poor rebounding PF since Rodman is the SF. Westbrook, Brandon and Smith will miss a ton of shots and the overall offensive rebounding is weak IMO. Kover adds 3's ahd very high EFG% but that's all he does and is just a one usage point player. Snow adds some assists but not much else. The defense is very good overall especially 4 out of 5 of the starters. The turnovers and fouls are very low. I'm projecting 45 wins max.
7/4/2014 4:06 PM (edited)
My team will be a very interesting experiment. My core seven give me only 17,640 minutes and use up about $45.76m of my cap space. May make a final tweak or two to my five scrubs but the combo I'm looking at now provide 1540 of the cheapest (and worst ) minutes in the sim. My total minutes are 19,175 but IMO I have a little more fatigue protection than my total minutes because I can run my high RL minutes players 4 additional minutes a game without adding exposure to the individual penalty. Plus my 5 scrubs already really, really suck, but they are low usage, so I can run them into the ground and still get about the same production (an empty void on the floor) as I would if they were at 100%. More about the numbers for my two groups in a few.
7/4/2014 4:51 PM (edited)
Would be interested in hearing about other's experiences here when dealing with the sub-$300k scrubs. I easily could have taken 500 fewer total minutes (that 40%+ ast guy we all love or one of those 40 cred or 15oreb guys we all generally gravitate to.) But two key factors sent me down the path of total shitsville for my scrubs this time:

(1) Most importantly I have seen what can happen here to any team with fewer than 19k in total minutes, ask dh about his Kareem/Russell team here that went from leading the division to dropping like 8 straight at the end of the season and missing the playoffs altogether. And I'm pretty sure that I recall a felon squad with sub-19k as well that looked great on paper but lost over 50 games. I personally do my best to reach 19,300 in this league as any total below that is a mathematical guarantee of fatigue setting in for someone on your squad. IMO below some minimum number: any minute, no matter how crappy, is better than losing additional fatigue from your core.

(2) The engine rarely if ever gives you what you pay for when talking about low minutes guys. This sucks, but it makes sense in terms of a consistent application of penalties and fatigue within the sim. Say your 200 RL minute guy gets in a game and there is no stoppage of play and he logs 5 total minutes. The engine sees that the same as playing a RL 24mpg guy for all 48 minutes. If you don't know what this does to a guy, then please give it a try against me when we meet this season, especially if it is a higher usage guy. There is virtually no margin of error for these guys when managing the individual penalty and something as simple a an extra two minutes without a foul or a to in a game can screw you.
7/5/2014 11:23 AM
The odds on the "will postage be able to make predictions on a holiday weekend with the girlfriend in town" prop are:

Yes +300
No -400

I'd lay the 1 to 4 and pick up a quick 25% return on my money. But in case you do get around to it below are the numbers on my squad:

66-67 Wilt will always start and be set for 48min at C; 68-69 Lucas will always start at PF; 13-14 Harden and 01-02 Pierce will always provide a full 48 minutes of 6-points usage tier at SG and will either start at PG/SG or SG/SF depending on the matchup. 11-12 Novak will always come off of the bench and my last starter will either be 93-94 McMillan at PG or 81-82 Catchings, again depending on the matchup.

17,640 minutes from my core.
FG% .512
3pt% .403 that's 636/1580
Efg% .565
PER .263
FGA/FTA ratio 2.25
PF rate .072
Ts% .600
Tov% .154
Ave D 70.09

Starting lineup (McMillan version/ Catchings version)
Def 71.6; 71.8
Oreb 36.6; 42.9
Dreb 92.7; 93.8
Creb 129.3; 136.7
Ast 83.1; 61.2
Stl 11.3; 8.4
Blk 7.4; 12.6
7/5/2014 11:54 AM (edited)
Scrub bench:
1540 min
2 players with a 60D+ and 3 players with a D in the 30's for a 46.4 ave D
Tov% .249
PF rate .134 (206 RL)
Oreb 4.4
Dreb 10.8
Creb 15.2
Ast 11.2
Stl 1.1
Blk 1.3

Mother of all low efg: .352

Biggest concerns for entire squad:
Tov% is very high even before any scrubs come in, only 6310 RL FGA's for entire squad means 20+ tov a game is on the way
Ave D of starters of 70.09 is just above where you need to be to hold opponents to RL percentages, when Novak or the scrubs come in then it will be below and someone will light me up
How often will Pierce and or Harden hit the individual penalty?

Find a way to stop this:
Core efg of .565 with 3-4 ast players on the court
PER of .263 at over 40% = raining down triples all day on your ***
2.25 RL FGA/FTA ratio and .072 PF rate = domination in the PF/FTA battle
McMillan version is an elite turnover creating machine with an 11.3 stl%
Catchings version is an elite shot blocking machine with a 12.6 blk%

IMO this squad is all or nothing in a difficult division. If I win the division then I'll be almost impossible to stop in the playoffs with the bonus minutes from my core, but if I go into the playoffs with fatigue then it's likely going to be a pretty quick exit. Of course I may be underestimating the amount of damage my scubs will do or Pierce/Harden may live in the individual penalty all season and be crappy. I of course believe this team will cruise to 60+ wins, but if it doesn't at least I set myself up to fail on my own terms.
7/5/2014 3:51 PM
Best of...Guardians

offense
Name Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
02-03 Tracy McGrady SF 35.4 48.3 38.6 50.5 4.3 13.7 18.7 1.9 1.2
70-71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar C 28.7 58.3 16.9 57.8 13.2 22.7 8.2 1.3 3.6

defense
Name Pos Salary Per% Mid% Pnt% Def Rtg PG Eff% SG Eff% SF Eff% PF Eff% C Eff%
85-86 Maurice Cheeks PG $7,787,466 2 55 43 90 100 100 83 70 60
88-89 A.C. Green PF $6,465,629 2 37 60 80 70 85 98 100 99
70-71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar C $10,583,527 1 39 60 80 60 70 80 92 100

boards
Name Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
68-69 Wes Unseld C 15.7 48.2 0.0 47.6 12.8 29.4 7.5 1.2 3.5
70-71 Kareem Abdul-Jabbar C 28.7 58.3 16.9 57.8 13.2 22.7 8.2 1.3 3.6
63-64 Bill Bridges PF 17.7 41.2 32.7 41.3 9.4 22.5 10.7 1.7 1.3
97-98 Eric Montross C 12.0 45.7 0.0 45.6 13.2 21.0 1.6 0.8 2.7
88-89 A.C. Green PF 17.0 53.2 23.9 53.2 11.4 19.0 4.7 1.5 1.2

assist
Name Pos Usage% 2pt%# 3pt%# eFG% OReb% DReb% Ast% Stl% Blk%
88-89 Sidney Lowe SG 6.4 34.5 0.0 32.0 2.4 12.5 42.5 2.3 0.9
02-03 Brevin Knight PG 16.5 43.5 25.0 43.0 1.7 7.5 32.8 3.3 0.1
85-86 Maurice Cheeks PG 16.0 53.8 24.5 53.9 1.8 5.9 26.7 2.6 0.5
84-85 Phil Ford PG 9.8 32.1 0.0 29.8 1.1 8.7 22.3 0.8 0.2
02-03 Tracy McGrady SF 35.4 48.3 38.6 50.5 4.3 13.7 18.7 1.9 1.2


7/5/2014 4:04 PM
How many minutes do you have smokey?
7/5/2014 6:42 PM
19,369 min's..barely enough.
7/5/2014 8:13 PM
I made Duncan's rookie year work.  Most of my eggs are in one basket, but at least my seven draftees account for 91% of my total minutes.
7/5/2014 8:40 PM
I have about 8% crap on this team, but that's probably not too bad in this league. This is an exercise in giving tmac & jabbar what they need to be great, in the DH52 tmac's @ 54%efg and doing great MJ imitation. Tmac is a beast @ 54%efg. I can't decide whats worse Tmac & the '66' Wilt or Tmac & the '70' Jabbar...
7/5/2014 8:45 PM
btw - in the DH52 Tmac is the #2 scorer in the league @ 31.3ppg, just 0.1 ppg behind the league leader....Kareem Abdul-Jabbar!   ooooops!!! 
7/6/2014 9:32 PM
hey look, scud castrated kobe...woot! 
7/7/2014 8:28 AM
maybe i did... maybe i didn't... maybe not the same team as i entered.  
7/7/2014 10:31 AM
well, went back to the 8.1m version... 10m Gilmore... 8.3m brand... we'll see
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