8/4/2014 4:59 PM
Posted by discodemo on 8/4/2014 4:43:00 PM (view original):
Brian would you explain why we would need more innings with deadballers than high K pitchers, because that's counterintuitive.  HIgh K pitchers should need to throw more pitches per inning due to the strikeouts.  I assume deadballers generally don't go as deep in the count and should be more efficient with their pitches/inning.  Am I wrong?
You're correct in theory, but I believe the SIM engine makes an internal adjustment for strikeout pitchers.  So, they can throw more pitches per inning compared to deadball pitchers. 

FYI - my 120M league (6-A), the average number of pitches per game is 158.0.  And just for kicksm the six teams with the lowest IP count are all located in the same league (N.L.).
8/4/2014 5:11 PM
161 pitches per game in 6D
8/4/2014 6:25 PM
3 1-run PM2 losses. Bluughhh
8/4/2014 7:24 PM
I did envision league 6 to be a potential nightmare world for pitchers....every game a challenge with no letup. That's why I am going with a 6 man rotation- each pitcher with 235 IPs or more. Of course, the flip side is with all their potential success...hitter fatigue may become a factor as well. BTW,so far my team "Fasten Your Seatbelts" is only 1-2.
8/4/2014 7:30 PM
Yep, what schwarze said is right. There is a great post by elbirdo from several years ago that tells you have to convert real life stats into number of SIM allocated pitches. I've bumped it again in the 'Sim Baseball' forum so it is easy to find. The short version is
  • Pitcher fatigue is calculated by pitches thrown in SIM, not innings pitched. (So in that respect it is very different to hitter fatigue)
  • How many pitches a pitcher is allocated, before they fatigue, is a function both of their IP, and of their component stats.
  • The more H/IP, K/IP and BB/IP a pitcher has in real life (not normalised, just real life), the more pitches/IP they are allocated in SIM.
  • And the factor for K's makes a big difference.
The actual formula for allocated pitches per IP/162 is : 3.406*BFIP + 3.762*BBIP + 1.964*KIP, where BF is Batters Faced, i.e., WHIP + 3.

So compare these two pitchers:

A has 200 real life IP, a WHIP of 1, 0.2 BB/9, and 0.4 K/9.
B has 200 real life IP, a WHIP of 1, 0.2 BB/9 and 1 K/9.

Pitcher A will get allocated 3032 pitches, pitcher B will get allocated 3268. If you have 8 of pitcher A, you will get 24259 pitches, or 149/game. If you have 8 of pitcher B, you will get 26144 pitches, or 161/game. The 8 B's will cover how the leagues are playing so far; the 8 of A will be getting fatigued.

The complication is that the B's should be throwing more pitches in the SIM than the A's. But I don't think they throw much more. Roughly, you allocated get 2 extra pitches per K, but you only end up using 1-1.5 of them (given the low K hitters that usually play in the SIM). So there is a bit of sneaky value in high K pitches; this makes the common all deadball strategy a little less good than is sometimes thought. But that's a separate matter, and I'm not 100% sure that what I've said in this paragraph is all true.

And all this is really owing to elbirdo's great work - apart from the guesses in the last paragraph I'm just reporting what he found out.

8/4/2014 7:49 PM
Isn't it something, everyone playing in Coors and all the talk is about pitching.  I am very afraid that I didn't grab enough, do not have a low enough staff WHIP and do not have  sufficient defense.  So far, I think my Vern Stephens pick might be my worst.  We will see.
8/5/2014 9:09 AM
6-18.... sigh.... it's been a good run.
8/5/2014 9:39 AM
120m league - in the first series I hit 11 home runs and only give up one home run, but lose 2 games to 1.  In game four, my opponent throws 205 pitches and I score only three runs and lose.  In fact, his Randy Johnson threw 119 pitches in 4 2/3 and gives up zero runs, none at all.
8/5/2014 9:46 AM
Needed that 6-0 last night.  Koufax had a no hitter through five in Coors.   Two teams got off the schneid.  Moved to 13-11.
8/5/2014 9:50 AM

That sounds about right for Randy.

8/5/2014 10:01 AM
Pedro Martinez threw a no-hitter through 5 for me in Coors (reached his pitch count limit thanks to 4 walks and 11 Ks).  Lost the game 9-8. 
8/5/2014 2:42 PM
Posted by brianjw on 8/4/2014 7:31:00 PM (view original):
Yep, what schwarze said is right. There is a great post by elbirdo from several years ago that tells you have to convert real life stats into number of SIM allocated pitches. I've bumped it again in the 'Sim Baseball' forum so it is easy to find. The short version is
  • Pitcher fatigue is calculated by pitches thrown in SIM, not innings pitched. (So in that respect it is very different to hitter fatigue)
  • How many pitches a pitcher is allocated, before they fatigue, is a function both of their IP, and of their component stats.
  • The more H/IP, K/IP and BB/IP a pitcher has in real life (not normalised, just real life), the more pitches/IP they are allocated in SIM.
  • And the factor for K's makes a big difference.
The actual formula for allocated pitches per IP/162 is : 3.406*BFIP + 3.762*BBIP + 1.964*KIP, where BF is Batters Faced, i.e., WHIP + 3.

So compare these two pitchers:

A has 200 real life IP, a WHIP of 1, 0.2 BB/9, and 0.4 K/9.
B has 200 real life IP, a WHIP of 1, 0.2 BB/9 and 1 K/9.

Pitcher A will get allocated 3032 pitches, pitcher B will get allocated 3268. If you have 8 of pitcher A, you will get 24259 pitches, or 149/game. If you have 8 of pitcher B, you will get 26144 pitches, or 161/game. The 8 B's will cover how the leagues are playing so far; the 8 of A will be getting fatigued.

The complication is that the B's should be throwing more pitches in the SIM than the A's. But I don't think they throw much more. Roughly, you allocated get 2 extra pitches per K, but you only end up using 1-1.5 of them (given the low K hitters that usually play in the SIM). So there is a bit of sneaky value in high K pitches; this makes the common all deadball strategy a little less good than is sometimes thought. But that's a separate matter, and I'm not 100% sure that what I've said in this paragraph is all true.

And all this is really owing to elbirdo's great work - apart from the guesses in the last paragraph I'm just reporting what he found out.

Now I know why I never win. I am competing against Mensa math geniuses. I understood not a word of what you wrote Brian. I am so old we used slide rules in school. I do feel good about my 2100+ IP in league 6 though. No serious fatigue (so far).  Now if my guys can just figure out how to hit.
8/5/2014 4:56 PM
The folks who drafted the high-end innings in the 120M theme will probably start winning once the fatigue really starts to kick in.  Right now though, those teams are probably weaker offensively and will lose to the low-IP[ teams whose fatigue is still ok.

Personally, I am waiting for the hitting fatigue to start affecting teams' offenses.  My eight starting batters average about 725 PA per player. 
8/5/2014 7:11 PM
I didn't think about PAs. I went heavier than I normally do, but no one has more than 701. And right now we're "on pace" for 800 per starter. (Sample size, both in terms of games and opponents, but still.) I figured that I would be OK at the plate, but wasn't sure about the pitching, and that's exactly what's happened so far.

.500 overall, with a 4-2, a 2-4, and 4 3-3s. No 0-6 cycles. I couldn't decide between the '55 Reds and 2013 Tigers for the $90M league, and it's looking like the Tigers may have been a better bet (the numbers looked pretty close to me) ... the Reds are my 2-4.



8/6/2014 9:17 AM
I suppose I would rather have slightly fatigued hitters in Coors over fatigued pitchers. That could be my saving grace in the $120M. My $70M could be my Spider. No Mauchs or Schwarze's yet but definitely under .500 overall. Some of my divisions started slowly so 2-6 still gives me a share of first in the $110M. I suppose sneaking into the playoffs with a bad team here or there can't hurt. But it's early and it's baseball, so anything can happen!
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