All Forums > what is better for projection report
8/7/2014 1:22 PM
Losing to a top 50 rpi opponent or beating a 150+ rpi opponent? I'm asking both as to the team in question and his conference mates. And while I realize SO MANY OTHER factors should be considered, try answering with this vacuum OR answer with whatever assumptions you have to make, but list the assumptions. For example, for purposes of the question being relevant, we are working on the assumption that the team in question has to win enough games to qualify for the NT.
8/7/2014 1:34 PM
For the team in question: I would guess beating a top 150 opponent, but am not 100% sure. I'm pretty sure there's no "quality loss" section of the PR, but I'm not sure if the PR cares much about RPI 100+ wins.

For that team's conference: definitely, definitely beating the RPI 150+ team. Your conference mates' RPIs will be determined 50% by their opponents' records (including yours) and only 25% by their opponents' opponents records. But while that 50% is dispersed 26 ways, that 25% is dispersed 26 times 26 ways. Which means, unless I'm having a brain fart right now, a one-game swing for you is equally important to your conference mates as a 52-game swing for your opponents (at least, for the opponents that are not also on the schedule of your conference mates). Assuming the 150+ RPI school does not have a record that is 52 games better than the top 50 opponent, your conference is better off when you beat the top 150 opponent.
8/7/2014 2:38 PM
Posted by jtt8355 on 8/7/2014 1:22:00 PM (view original):
Losing to a top 50 rpi opponent or beating a 150+ rpi opponent? I'm asking both as to the team in question and his conference mates. And while I realize SO MANY OTHER factors should be considered, try answering with this vacuum OR answer with whatever assumptions you have to make, but list the assumptions. For example, for purposes of the question being relevant, we are working on the assumption that the team in question has to win enough games to qualify for the NT.
beating a 150 rpi opponent is definitely better. you do need some quality wins, but losing to good teams doesn't really get you anywhere. neither does beating 150 rpi opponents, but that is better for your rpi (well, depends how high the top 50 and how low the 150, but 50/150 is definitely the 150) and record, which is important on the projection report.
8/7/2014 6:48 PM
Check out my Naismith team if you want the real example. No. 3 rpi with the no. 1 sos. But we're 6-4 headed into conference play. Should I have scheduled easier to get more wins but in the process sacrificing the rpi / sos?
8/8/2014 2:11 PM
Yes, you could have scheduled a "little" softer at the top end to produce 2-3 more wins. With your conference, you don't want to schedule too soft.
8/8/2014 2:34 PM
i dont think the original question really speaks to what you were trying to get at. losing to a 50 rpi school vs beating a 150 rpi school is an easy one, but that's not really the tradeoff for anybody. you are really asking about if its worth scheduling tough games that you have a good chance of losing, or easy ones you most likely win. the answer is neither really (i know that's kind of violating the question). its best to schedule relatively tough games that you still probably win. if you are 50 rpi, play a lot of top 100 rpi teams who you are still favored against. don't go play teams who are going to beat you down. its always better to beat a good opponent than to lose to a great one. don't play awful teams for wins, but don't play killer ones for sos, either. play for a good record vs the top 25/50/75/100 rpi, whatever that means for your team (i.e. a 2nd round nt team should be less worried about their record vs top 25 and more worried about trying to squeak in a couple top 50 wins with a bunch of top 100 wins).
8/8/2014 2:35 PM
Posted by coachvegas44 on 8/8/2014 2:11:00 PM (view original):
Yes, you could have scheduled a "little" softer at the top end to produce 2-3 more wins. With your conference, you don't want to schedule too soft.
I think this is the first time I've heard it insinuated that the WVIAC in Naismith isn't very good. Although we are admittedly very young this year.
8/11/2014 5:49 PM
We have the 2nd best conference rpi with 3 Sims. Not sure anyone can call us soft with a straight face...
8/13/2014 2:22 AM
Posted by tarvolon on 8/7/2014 1:34:00 PM (view original):
For the team in question: I would guess beating a top 150 opponent, but am not 100% sure. I'm pretty sure there's no "quality loss" section of the PR, but I'm not sure if the PR cares much about RPI 100+ wins.

For that team's conference: definitely, definitely beating the RPI 150+ team. Your conference mates' RPIs will be determined 50% by their opponents' records (including yours) and only 25% by their opponents' opponents records. But while that 50% is dispersed 26 ways, that 25% is dispersed 26 times 26 ways. Which means, unless I'm having a brain fart right now, a one-game swing for you is equally important to your conference mates as a 52-game swing for your opponents (at least, for the opponents that are not also on the schedule of your conference mates). Assuming the 150+ RPI school does not have a record that is 52 games better than the top 50 opponent, your conference is better off when you beat the top 150 opponent.
And if that conference opponent is in your division, its doubly important to get wins.

gillispie - I specifically used our Big 10 conference as an example of how to schedule.   Lots of 8+ win teams after non-conf and the RPIs really drop when conference play hits.
All Forums > what is better for projection report

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