Weekly Top 10 Review Topic

MikeT23
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Again, WI lost to LSU.  LSU might be 5th-6th best team in SEC West.   Bad look for OSU.   Your signature wins will be against teams that lost to Northwestern, LSU and Oregon.  Miss St will have beaten Auburn, LSU, TAMU and Ole Miss with their sole loss being a 5 point loss on the road to a team that some consider the best in the nation. 
11/17/2014 4:16 PM
MikeT23
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In fact, you shouldn't have argued so hard that Miss St wasn't really out of that game.   That hurts your argument because, no matter what, Bama is far superior to VaTech. 
11/17/2014 4:17 PM
moranis
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Missouri lost to Indiana. Indiana hasn't won a game in the Big Ten and yet Missouri has one SEC loss and is going to win the SEC East. I'm not sure what your point is.
11/17/2014 4:46 PM
MikeT23
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Mizzou is in the East.   Miss St is in the West.    As I said, LSU might be 5th-6th best team in SEC West.   LSU beat WI. 
11/17/2014 4:51 PM
moranis
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Missouri beat A&M who happens to be in the West.
11/18/2014 10:13 AM
MikeT23
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And that has what to do with Miss State's schedule compared to Ohio State's schedule?
11/18/2014 10:30 AM
MikeT23
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At the end of the day, your argument has to be:
1.  OSU won their conference
2.  OSU looks like the better team

You can't possibly think OSU played a tougher schedule.   Even when you're wearing your Buckeye Underoos.

11/18/2014 5:08 PM
moranis
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According to Sagarin, OSU's schedule is currently 47th and MSU's is currently 32nd.  Obviously OSU doesn't have a team like Alabama on the schedule, but MSU lost to Alabama so it isn't a win its favor either.  Ohio State has Indiana, Michigan, and likely Wisconsin while Mississippi State has Vanderbilt and Ole Miss.  Overall schedule strength will slightly favor MSU, but if you look at win quality, OSU will have the edge as Michigan St. will be the best win of the group and Auburn, Ole Miss, and Wiscy will all be in the same general range if there are no upsets in their games.

The SEC West is good, but Miss St will have also played the two weakest teams from the SEC East and a terrible non-con schedule.  It didn't do itself any favors in its scheduling.

11/19/2014 8:24 AM
MikeT23
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32nd is better than 47th, right? 

Miss St played a tougher schedule and should end up with the same number of losses(to the #1 team). 
11/19/2014 8:28 AM
MikeT23
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No surprises here:

1 Alabama 9-1
2 Oregon 9-1
3 Florida State 10-0
4 Mississippi State 9-1
5 TCU 9-1
6 Ohio State 9-1
7 Baylor 8-1
8 Ole Miss 8-2
9 UCLA 8-2
10 Georgia 8-2
11 Michigan State 8-2
12 Kansas State 7-2
13 Arizona State 8-2
14 Auburn 7-3
15 Arizona 8-2
16 Wisconsin 8-2
17 Utah 7-3
18 Georgia Tech 9-2
19 USC 7-3
20 Missouri 8-2
21 Oklahoma 7-3
22 Clemson 7-3
23 Nebraska 8-2
24 Louisville 7-3
25 Minnesota 7-3
11/19/2014 8:52 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/17/2014 10:00:00 AM (view original):
My four:
Bama, Oregon, FSU, Miss St

Outside looking in:
TCU, Baylor, OSU, KSU, MSU, GA, Ole Miss
With the exception of UCLA, my top 11 matches the committee's 11.

And the top 4 are in order. 
11/19/2014 8:57 AM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/12/2014 1:09:00 PM (view original):
That sort of got me thinking about things in a different way.   How much difference is there between OSU/MSU/Nebraska/WI/Minn and TCU/Baylor/KSU/WV/Tex(or whoever is 4/5 in the B12)?    Not much.   The top 3 are pretty comparable but I'd take the B12 if they played a round robin.   But, throw in 4/5, and I'm not sure B12 loses out.    So I broke down the top 10(plus 1 loss Duke/Nebraska) like this:   3 pts for a win over someone on the current top 25, 1 pt for a win against anyone else(I don't think beating Vandy is much different than beating some directional school from the MAC), -1 for a loss against a current top 25 and -3 for a loss against someone outside the top 25(what I consider an unacceptable loss).   Here's what I got:

Miss St - 15
Oregon -14
FSU/Bama - 13
Auburn - 11
TCU/ASU/Ole Miss -10
Baylor/OSU/Nebraska/Duke - 7

I really don't have much of a problem with that.   It would be reasonably fluid as we know some of those between 16-25 will drop out and others between 26-35 will move in.    
Doing this again with the top 7:

14-Oregon, FSU, TCU
10-Alabama, Miss St, Ohio State
9-Baylor

LSU/TAMU dropping out of the top 25 really put a hurting on the SEC teams. 
11/19/2014 9:29 AM
moranis
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Posted by MikeT23 on 11/19/2014 8:28:00 AM (view original):
32nd is better than 47th, right? 

Miss St played a tougher schedule and should end up with the same number of losses(to the #1 team). 
aren't you the guy that puts more stock in the wins than the losses.

When you compare the wins - Ohio State compares more than favorably with Mississippi State

Assuming both win out if you rank the wins against ranked opponents (by projected final rankings)

Michigan State
Mississippi
Wisconsin
Auburn
Minnesota

Those are the only 5 teams currently ranked that are (or will be) victories for OSU or MSU


I get OSU has a MUCH MUCH MUCH worse loss, but for someone like you that claims victories are what matter, Ohio State is and will end up better if they both win out. 
11/19/2014 9:46 AM
MikeT23
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LOL.

Are you counting on Minnesota being at 25 next week?    And, for the record, you know LSU/TAMU both dropped out of the top 25 this week, right?   Either of them could take Minny's spot at 25 next week. 
11/19/2014 9:52 AM
moranis
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I have no idea if Minnesota beats Nebraska, but if they do they will still be ranked and if they don't they probably won't be.  LSU and A&M both lost and LSU lost to a clearly inferior team it had no business losing to.  I don't' think LSU gets ranked again after that debacle.  I suppose A&M could, but A&M is not a good team, which it has shown time and time again this season. 
11/19/2014 11:05 AM
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