1AA Blog Season 106 Topic

cjsweat
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Dark Horse?




It feels like we see teams such as Tennessee Tech, Morehead State, and MVSU go from non-factors to competitors, over-night. It's very early in the season, but Morgan State appears to be the next turn around. Although the Bears have been to playoffs recently, this school has not been competitive in almost 80 seasons. Enter: tampafla. Tampafla reached 1AA in one of the fastest fashions. He spent one season at DIII, Washington (MO) and found a way into quarterfinals. The following season, he left for the Carolinas and took over Newberry. In two seasons with the Indians, he went 25-6 and reached playoffs each season.

Before the start of this season, I thought this team was going to just miss playoffs. Even though they have some talent, this tough non-conference schedule pointed to them starting 1-4, and likely losing 2 conference games. Yet, the Bears had a dominating effort against Texas Southern and routed the Tigers, 69-41. That same effort continued into their next game against UMass, as the Bears won 51-13. Currently, Morgan State is rolling Brown 21-3 at the half. Morgan State isn't just beating good teams, they are crushing good teams with good coaches. Tampafla has turned Gerald Jones into a star quarterback and has this team on the brink of their best season since 15.

Here is a look at the rest of their schedule:

 
11/29/14 Texas Southern 0-2 - - 2000champou 1-5  -5.5 41-69 W
11/30/14 at Massachusetts 1-1 - - buck18 2-3 +9.5 51-13 W
12/1/14 at Brown 1-1 - - rwilcox5 1-2  -2.5 21-3 H
12/2/14 at Drake 2-0 - - cubnation7 2-5    
12/3/14 at Appalachian State 0-2 - - Sim AI      

Conference

Date Opponent Record WIS SOS Coach vs. School Spread Result  
12/4/14 at #5 Duquesne 2-0 - - gdplayer 21-18    
12/5/14 at #25 La Salle 2-0 - - Sim AI 19-20    
12/6/14 Siena 1-1 - - Sim AI 18-21    
12/7/14 at Howard 0-2 - - reigny 46-29    
12/8/14 at Hampton 1-1 - - Sim AI 24-51    
12/9/14 SC State 1-1 - - Sim AI 25-50    
12/10/14 Bethune-Cookman 1-1 - - Sim AI 22-53    
12/11/14 NC A&T 0-2 - - Sim AI 29-46  
12/1/2014 8:08 AM
cjsweat
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Here is the link for today's show with sjurat:


http://www.blogtalkradio.com/whatifsports/2014/12/02/wilkinson-fcs-show-122

We will be LIVE at 3:30EST today. Don't miss it!
12/2/2014 2:04 PM
pete_61
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Another good interview CJ, I really like sjurat's Wishbone attack and it was interesting to hear his philosophy for team building, choosing formations to run, and his unique recruiting style.
12/2/2014 8:53 PM
cjsweat
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LIVE today at 3pm EST:


www.blogtalkradio.com/whatifsports/2014/12/04/wilkinson-fcs-show-124
12/4/2014 2:03 PM
cjsweat
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A Giant Has Fallen




In only the second time in 7 seasons, Jacksonville State has lost a game. This loss was at the hands of one of the hottest coaches in FCS, Orangepace. Not only did the Golden Eagles pull off a major upset that could change the playoff dynamic, they outscored Jacksonville State in the first and second halves. The Gamecocks will look for revenge in the conference championship. 
 



Perhaps one of the most significant wins of the season is being overlooked today. While Tennessee Tech shocked the country, Yale quietly pounded a very tough Colgate team. The Bulldogs used over 400 yards of offense to roll the Raiders, 41 - 23. This win puts Yale in the driver seat of the IVY and back in contention for a 1 or 2 seed.

 
12/6/2014 2:25 AM
cjsweat
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CJ's Power Ten Update



1.Morehead State

2. California State

3. Tennessee Tech

4. Dayton

5. Jacksonville State

6. MVSU

7. Yale

8. Morgan State

9. Columbia

10. Northern Iowa



Just missed the cut: Jacksonville, UMass, Florida A&M, Holy Cross
 
12/8/2014 8:17 AM
cjsweat
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Show Today!


Don't miss today's show! We have a HUGE announcement concerning Thursday's broadcast. We'll be LIVE at 3:00pm EST at this link: www.blogtalkradio.com/whatifsports/2014/12/09/wilkinson-fcs-show-129
12/9/2014 2:08 PM
pete_61
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I can't wait to hear the interview with Z, he is a great coach and a really good friend so I'm anxious to hear you drag out some of those closely guarded secrets to his success!
12/10/2014 11:03 PM
cjsweat
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Bracketology





 
North South East West
1. Morehead State 1. Jacksonville State 1. Morgan State 1. California State
2. MVSU 2. Northern Iowa 2. Columbia 2. Tennessee Tech
3. Dayton 3. Colgate 3. Georgetown 3. Florida A&M
4. Southern Illinois 4. UMass 4. Jacksonville 4. Holy Cross
5. Texas State 5. Drake 5. Yale 5. Murray State
6. Duquesne 6. San Diego 6. Brown 6. Sacred Heart
7. Richmond 7. Texas Southern 7. Alcorn State 7. Southeastern (LA)
8. Eastern Illinois 8. Lafayette 8. La Salle 8. Wofford
       
       
Locks (conference champions)    
UMass (A-10)      
California State (Big Sky)      
Northern Iowa (Gateway)      
Columbia (Ivy)      
Morgan State (MEAC)      
Georgetown (NEC)      
Tennessee Tech (OVC)      
Morehead State (PFL)      
Wofford (SOCON)    
MVSU (SWAC)      
12/11/2014 9:51 AM
cjsweat
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Posted by pete_61 on 12/10/2014 11:03:00 PM (view original):
I can't wait to hear the interview with Z, he is a great coach and a really good friend so I'm anxious to hear you drag out some of those closely guarded secrets to his success!
It's going to be a great interview.

Don't forget to tune in at 3:00PM EST.

Here is the link: www.blogtalkradio.com/whatifsports/2014/12/11/wilkinson-fcs-show-1211

12/11/2014 9:55 AM
rwilcox5
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I have calculated ELO ratings for our world. These are essentially the ratings Nate Silver uses on FiveThirtyEight.com for the NFL so read about them here. One advantage of this ratings system is it is easy to predict game outcomes from the ratings data. I have adjusted the numbers so that calculating point spreads is as simple as subtracting the ratings of the two teams. Calculating the probability of a team winning is a little more complicated. The probability of team A beating team B is 1/(1+10^((ELOB-ELOA)/26.67)) where ELOB is the rating of team B and ELOA is the rating of team A.

These ratings were optimaized to rate NFL teams and they are quite good at doing that. Gridiron Dynasty football is a little different (more bad teams and blowouts, etc.), so I will eventually play around with the parameters to optimize for our game.

I have included the ELO top 50 with the top 25 on the left and next 25 on the right.The first column is the rank, the second is the rating, and then the team name.
1 146 Morehead State 26 114 Murray State
2 143 Morgan State 27 114 La Salle
3 139 Jacksonville State 28 113 Southeastern Louisiana
4 138 Dayton 29 113 Robert Morris
5 136 California State 30 112 Coastal Carolina
6 135 Tennessee Tech 31 112 Duquesne
7 135 Northern Iowa 32 112 Eastern Illinois
8 135 Mississippi Valley State 33 111 Wofford
9 131 Columbia 34 110 St. Mary`s
10 129 Massachusetts 35 110 Richmond
11 129 Jacksonville 36 109 Davidson
12 128 Florida A&M 37 109 Tennessee-Martin
13 127 Southern Illinois 38 109 Lafayette
14 127 Georgetown 39 107 Western Carolina
15 126 Colgate 40 106 Elon
16 122 Yale 41 104 Bucknell
17 121 Texas State 42 103 Tennessee-Chattanooga
18 120 Texas Southern 43 102 Southern Utah
19 120 Drake 44 102 Montana State
20 120 Holy Cross 45 102 Harvard
21 116 San Diego 46 101 Northern Arizona
22 116 Alcorn State 47 101 James Madison
23 115 Sam Houston State 48 101 McNeese State
24 115 Brown 49 100 Cornell
25 114 Sacred Heart 50 100 Idaho State

Conference championship preview:
Ivy:
Columbia is favored by 5 over Colgate and has a 61% chance of winning.
PFL:
Morehead St is favored by 8 over Dayton and has a 67% chance of winning.
SWAC:
Miss. Valley State is favored by 15 over Texas Southern and has a 78% chance of winning.
Gateway:
Northern Illinois is favored by 8 over Southern Illinois and has a 67% chance of winning.
OVC:
Jacksonville State is favored by 4 over Tenn Tech and has a 59% chance of winning.
NEC:
Georgetown is favored by 14 over Robert Morris and has a 77% chance of winning.
A10:
UMASS is favored by 30 over Maine and has a 93% chance of winning.
Big Sky:
Cal State is favored by 21 over Sam Houston State and has a 86% chance of winning.
MEAC:
Morgan State is favored by 15 over Florida A&M and has a 78% chance of winning.
SoCon:
Wofford is favored by 5 over Elon and has a 61% chance of winning.




12/11/2014 9:15 PM
cjsweat
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This is amazing. Thank you rwilcox
12/11/2014 9:46 PM
bucki22
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Loved the radio show today cj, nice work. As this season's final days approach, I hope you're around for another season or ten....     
12/11/2014 10:34 PM
cjsweat
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A-10 Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

Big Sky Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

Gateway Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

IVY League Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

MEAC Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

NEC Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

OVC Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

PFL Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

SOCON Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx

SWAC Championship: whatifsports.com/gd/GameResults/WISCast.aspx


Again, at 2:30am EST, that link should take you to the WISCAST of the respected championship game. Good luck to everyone tomorrow and throughout the bracket selection process.
12/12/2014 12:49 AM
cjsweat
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Bracketology





 
North South East West
1. Morehead State 1. Morgan State 1. Jacksonville State 1. California State
2. Northern Iowa 2. Dayton 2. MVSU 2. Tennessee Tech
3. Columbia 3. Georgetown 3. Colgate 3. Florida A&M
4. Southern Illinois 4. Jacksonville 4. UMass 4. Holy Cross
5. Drake 5. Texas State 5. Yale 5. Alcorn State
6.  Sacred Heart 6. San Diego 6. Texas Southern 6. Robert Morris
7. Duquesne 7. Southeastern (LA) 7. Brown 7. Sam Houston State
8. Western Carolina 8. Eastern Illinois 8. La Salle 8. Wofford
       
       
Locks (conference champions)    
UMass (A-10)      
California State (Big Sky)      
Northern Iowa (Gateway)      
Columbia (Ivy)      
Morgan State (MEAC)      
Georgetown (NEC)      
Jacksonville State (OVC)      
Morehead State (PFL)      
Wofford (SOCON)    
MVSU (SWAC)      
12/12/2014 9:43 AM
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