That bracketology is based on teams currently winning, holding off their opponents. There are several very close games at the moment, so this is still wide open. However, I would argue that Morehead State has locked a one seed, even with a loss. Also, Morgan State does hold a steady 17 point lead over Florida A&M. Although, we have seen crazier things, it could be safe to assume that they hang on.

Thus, two one seeds are wide open. Here is how each team can garner a one seed:

Dayton: Beat Morehead State

California State: Beat Sam Houston State. 2 of these 3 teams need to lose: Dayton, Northern Iowa, Jacksonville State

Jacksonville State: Beat Tennessee Tech

Northern Iowa: Beat Southern Illinois and needs Dayton and/or Jacksonville State to lose.

MVSU: Beat Texas Southern and ALL of these teams need to lose: Dayton, Northern Iowa, Jacksonville State.

Don't forget!

FCS Selection Show starts at 3:00PM EST

www.blogtalkradio.com/whatifsports/2014/12/12/wilkinson-fcs-bracket-reveal-show-106


Also, today's show will have a chat feature. Feel free to converse in the chat window. This is my first time using this feature, so, please refrain from profanity.

This is probably the best playoff series that I've seen since I've been playing, no one will be able to win a championship by winning one or two tough games, every team will have to face at least 3 opponents that will be a close match for them. The two and three loss schools should not throw in the towel early, this is the kind of playoff that any team can get on a hot streak and win it all.

Loved the show today, CJ. I too am really looking forward to the playoffs, but I don't like Brown's chances tomorrow as much as you do.

I have calculated some playoff odds using ELO ratings. The first column is the the team names and the numbers in parentheses represent the point spread I calculated for the round one matchup. For instance, Morgan State is favored by 31 over Sam Houston State. Then each column is the probability that team will advance to the next round. For instance, Morgan State has a 94% chance of making round 2, 82% of making round 3, 64% of making round 4, 45% chance of making the championship, and 23% chance of winning it all. Obviously these predictions are not perfect but they should be decent enough and at least a little fun to look at.

Morgan State (-31)	94	82	64	45	23
Sam Houston State	6	2
Colgate (-5)	61	11	4	1
Drake	39	5	2
Georgetown (-12)	74	34	9	4	1
San Diego	26	6	1
Northern Iowa (-19)	84	55	19	9	3
Brown	16	5	1
California State (-29)	92	67	40	19	7
Western Carolina	8	1
Jacksonville (-8)	67	24	10	3	1
Yale	33	8	2
Massachusetts (-17)	81	35	15	5	1
Murray State	19	3	1
Mississippi Valley State (-24)	89	59	31	14	5
Duquesne	11	2
Jacksonville State (-23)	88	71	48	20	10
Texas Southern	12	4	1
Florida A&M (-13)	76	22	8	2
Sacred Heart	24	3	1
Tennessee Tech (-20)	85	49	22	6	2
Southeastern Louisiana	15	3
Columbia (-21)	86	46	20	5	2
La Salle	14	3
Morehead State (-42)	98	91	72	55	38
Elon	2	1
Holy Cross (+1)	48	4	1
Texas State	52	5	1
Southern Illinois (-13)	76	31	6	2	1
Alcorn State	24	5
Dayton (-27)	91	63	18	9	4
Robert Morris	9	2

It looks like Morehead State is the favorite and Morgan State is the second most likely to win bring the trophy home. Looking at their resumes, I have to agree. But don't count pete_61 out just yet. These predictions don't take into account past playoff performance, so his chances are likely better than 10%.

Good luck to all in the playoffs.

Predicting WIS rankings is surprisingly difficult, so good job CJ. I have updated my playoff predictions. Without any major upsets today there isn't much movement. The columns are the same as yesterday so the first is the probability of winning tomorrow and the last is the probability of winning the championship. There are 5 games tomorrow that have a good chance of being decided by one possession so it should be exciting.

Morgan State (-23)	88	66	47	25
Drake	12	4	1
Georgetown (+4)	41	11	4	1
Northern Iowa	59	19	9	3
California State (-7)	64	36	15	6
Jacksonville	36	15	5	1
Massachusetts (+6)	38	16	5	1
Mississippi Valley State	62	33	14	5
Jacksonville State (-14)	77	51	22	12
Florida A&M	23	9	2	1
Tennessee Tech (-2)	54	23	7	3
Columbia	46	18	5	2
Morehead State (-28)	92	73	53	37
Holy Cross	8	2
Southern Illinois (+5)	40	8	3	1
Dayton	60	17	8	3

I don't think you can use the spread for anything useful, from what I understand the formula for it has not been updated from game version1, so they are completely bogus. If I remember right WIS left it in because of the changes that would be required to remove it, and it is probably acting as a placeholder for a future upgrade. I might be totally wrong on this and someone else may have better info.

I agree about the WIS spreads being a joke. The spreads I have listed are ones I have calculated using ELO ratings, so they should be at least reasonable predictors. Backtesting them, they correlate with actual results a little better than Vegas lines correlate with actual NFL results. Obviously they can be way off for some games, but that is what makes this game so much fun.

rwilcox, your ELO ratings did quite well yesterday. Nailed the Holy Cross / Texas State game.

Posted by rwilcox5 on 12/14/2014 10:38:00 AM (view original):
I agree about the WIS spreads being a joke. The spreads I have listed are ones I have calculated using ELO ratings, so they should be at least reasonable predictors. Backtesting them, they correlate with actual results a little better than Vegas lines correlate with actual NFL results. Obviously they can be way off for some games, but that is what makes this game so much fun.

That's really cool, I didn't know about those ELO ratings or didn't understand what had been discussed. I hope that you keep doing this, I love to see the numbers and the stats on teams and games.

Updated odds for the elite eight:

Morgan State (-11)	73	48	25
Northern Iowa	27	11	3
California State (-2)	53	22	8
MVSU	47	19	6
Dayton	22	8	3
Morehead State (-15)	78	54	36
Tennessee Tech	37	11	5
Jacksonville State (-6)	63	27	14

Remember the first column is the chance of winning tomorrow, the second is the chance of making the championhsip game, and the final column is the chance of winning the championship.
Looking forward to the rubber match between JSU and TTU. And Cal State vs. MVSU could go either way.

South Region

East Region

West Region