Posted by Midge on 5/20/2015 12:31:00 AM (view original):
Isn't a chicken and egg thing as to whether the base stealers  were bad or the catchers had good arms?

What I've noticed is that when you play the deadballers against more modern catchers they steal bases at a better rate. Are they saying that these old 50% guys would do better against Bench, Rodriguez and Molina?

I think what they're saying is that they have to do better against Bench, Rodriguez and Molina because the arms that threw them out have to do worse against future base stealers.

Has that Musial worked or failed for you before, ojo?

Some ballparks seem to have some mysterious variances with some players' XBH, too.

Honestly, I have no idea. Busch Stadium is a shade towards pitchers' park (.99). The HR #s should be down (-2 to LF/RF), but the 3b rating is +1.

I'm still awaiting Musial's first triple of the season. He hit 18 in '48.

He DID hit a double for me in the PM game. So he reached double digits in XBH, 29% into the season.

Suffice to say there are some strong variances since the last revision in extra base hits. You know the last revision, right?  Was that 2007? 2006?

Posted by italyprof on 5/17/2015 6:35:00 AM (view original):
You have us all intrigued ArlenWilliams. This is already sounding like fun. Can't wait to see your solutions to these. 

Hopefully this weekend.... Edit: it's coming along...

So, I moved Stan Musial to the top of the order to maximize his .400+ OBP and minimize his .390 SLG.

Fast forward a half dozen games, and his SLG has jumped to .466.

Sigh.

Small sample size

Yeah, I'm not utterly convinced that batting order doesn't provide some kind of warp, sometimes. I've seen dudes that just don't seem to be able to live up to hitting in the #4 spot, but do fine elsewhere. Oddly like some real-life situations.

Posted by ArlenWilliam on 5/23/2015 6:15:00 PM (view original):
Yeah, I'm not utterly convinced that batting order doesn't provide some kind of warp, sometimes. I've seen dudes that just don't seem to be able to live up to hitting in the #4 spot, but do fine elsewhere. Oddly like some real-life situations.

You're seeing things that aren't there....there are simply to many variables to make a claim that batting order impacts performance.

No claim is made, TJ. I just allow that there could be a few unknown effects, when so many conditions are piled on so many others... maybe a "strange attractor," here and there, so to speak... maybe just a tiny bit of chaos theory at work. 

Programming is more like Superman 3 than Jurassic Park.....from my limited knowledge of writing code "accidental synergy" doesn't happen much.

Yeah, I suppose that in part would tend to depend upon how much AI is added and in how many layers, so to speak.  When WIS adds factors in the way pitchers, batters, and fielders perform with men on base, or the number of outs, or the speed of the baserunners, or what type of hitter is batting, such things can add up. The "law" of unintended consequences can feasibly get into chaos theory land, it would seem to me.

Here's the Theme!


http://www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx?ForumID=18&TopicID=485873

You can't rally fix this in a leage but I agree with some of the guys about defense.  Playing a guy out of position should be worse than a d-d- rating.  And my real point is how a 15 time Gold Glove MLB baseball player like Roberto Clemente can have such a low Defensive rating.   Probably a Reds or Cardinals fan set up his defensivie rating for the computer.  And like an early post mentioned Honus Wagner, greatest fielding ss of his era and an all time great should not be rated as low as he is.

Fielding and range are based directly on the stats; nobody "set up" anything.  I'm not saying Clemente was NOT a good defender, and the reality is that single-season defensive statistics have fairly low reliability/high variance.  But just quoting a number of Gold Gloves doesn't prove a lot.  Jeter won 5, and I don't think I'd say he was ever so much as average defensively.