Posted by tecwrg on 6/10/2015 2:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 6/10/2015 1:18:00 PM (view original):
The math is pretty simple. 500 PA. .300 vs .220 = 40 hits. .370 vs. 380 = 5 on-base. It's almost silly to throw away 40 more hits for 5 more times on base(or, if you prefer, 5 less outs).
That's not what Perfesser BL teaches at Sabrmetric U.
Given an almost identical OBP, the .300 hitter is way more valuable than the .220 hitter, unless the majority of the .220 hitter's hits are extra base hits.
If you assume league average-ish home runs and doubles, the first batter hits:
.300/.370/.407 with 107 singles, 18 doubles, 10 home runs, and 50 walks.
A very good, if slightly underpowered line. Basically 2008 Jeter, 2013 Pedroia, or 2011 Yunel Escobar.
Again, assuming average-ish HR & doubles, the second guy has a line of:
.221/.380/.342 with 60 singles, 18 doubles, 10 home runs, and 102 walks.
This second guy just doesn't happen. No one*** with a full season of PA has an average that low with an OBP that high. The batter would have to walk 100 times but only get around 90 hits.
For guy two to be more valuable, instead of 60 singles, 18 doubles, and 10 home runs. He'd need to do something like hit 20 home runs and 30 doubles while only hitting 38 singles. That's just not something anyone does.
EDIT: The line for the second guy with the increased extra base hits would be .221/.380/.447. That would be more valuable than the first guy at .300/.370/.407.
***It's happened like six times in the history of baseball.
6/10/2015 4:55 PM (edited)