As for my own teams, I flubbed it last year. I both overthought and rushed a few teams that ultimately sunk my chances of repeating as champion. This year, I took my time before finishing my teams and posting league numbers. Hopefully that means a return to the top.
With everything going on though, I really haven't spent much time on WIS in 2020 relative to past years. This means I've spent less time testing new strategies since last year's tournament as I would have liked. Hopefully that
doesn't mean an off-year.
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$80M: MH '11 Aybar, Top Shelf
Stadium: West Side Grounds
At low caps it's more about value than anywhere else. This is a pretty standard league so I just identified all players' most expensive seasons, explored the options and then applied my usual search criteria.
There were a lot of comparable options in the OF (ok speed, solid XBH, lefty/switch, good range), so I focused on starting pitching where there were fewer options. Tewks and Bernhard are among the best value pitchers over 200IP in the game, so I started with them. Almost fit Tully Sparks as well but would've had to make concessions on offense and defense to do it, so I went with the slightly more cumbersome Jack Taylor as my horse instead.
RPs were easy — just filter by Value Index at a few $/IP and IP thresholds.
I can't believe I ended up with Erick Aybar and his .322 OBP both A) on my team and B) as my most expensive offensive player, so I wanted to honor him in the team name.
Hitting: 4,995 PA, .311 / .380 / .429, $37.9M
Pitching: 1,345 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 0.25 HR/9, $41.3M
Prediction: Tommy McCreery will make some errors in left field but this is a good team. 93 wins +/- 3
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$90M: MH My Pitchers Are Alive
Stadium: Target Field
These days, everyone expects everyone else to draft deadball pitchers, so no one drafts HR hitters anymore. This actually means that modern pitchers with mediocre-to-bad HR/9 tend to be better values than deadball pitchers to begin with
before you even factor in the extra pitches they get allocated (since no one drafts hitters who strike out a lot, either) and their defensive benefits.
While I haven't tested enough of these types of teams to feel confident using the strategy across the WISC, I've used it enough to know it was the right choice for this theme, where their benefit is amplified due to the defensive benefits they provide.
On the pitching side, I rostered three 200IP+ guys (Pedro, Cliff Lee, and Chris Carpenter). Keeping them on short pitch counts in a 3-man rotation, and relying on a few 100+ IP long relievers will work in my favor here since RPs are cheaper than SPs (more on that later). I wish I had a few more strikeouts but I'll settle for minimal walks.
For hitting, pretty standard (range, speed, XBH) with the exception of C. I wanted to use 1891 Duke Farrell but he was ultimately too expensive. I spent a lot of time tweaking this but eventually left the rest of my lineup intact and settled for a 3.8M platoon at C with good OBP. Never thought about drafting HR hitters because I figured enough people would draft deadball pitchers. Also never really thought about trying to sabotage others' fielding with pre-1900 hitters specifically.
Hitting: 5,232 PA, .321 / .406 / .454, $45.2M
Pitching: 1,352 IP, 0.97 WHIP, 0.79 HR/9, $44.4M
Prediction: A little worried about innings but feel pretty good here otherwise. 90 wins +/- 4
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$110M: MH There Can Only Be One
Stadium: Citi Field
Where to start with this one? I knew two things going in:
A) I could make a great team by using +/- 1
B) I probably couldn't make a
noticeably better team by using another value for x
Okay, done. The teams themselves came together pretty easily. The tough part was figuring out how much ammo other people would spend vs. save for Round 2 and weigh that against the higher inherent value of a Round 2 win.
Ultimately I chose to go super strong on pitching in Round 2. This may work to my detriment if it causes a lot of extra inning games, since I am light on IP. I also don't like how many bench scrubs I'm carrying. Wasn't able to make it work with as large of a bullpen as I'd like. Tradeoff there was between extra arms / less wasted salary and getting to use Bernhard and a few others. Ultimately they brought more value than I was losing.
Round 1 Hitting: 5,331 PA, .330 / .406 / .478, $53.7M
Round 1 Pitching: 1,396 IP, 0.95 WHIP, 0.36 HR/9, $53.7M
Round 2 Hitting: 5,141 PA, .333 / .415 / .472, $53.0M
Round 2 Pitching: 1,390 IP, 0.87 WHIP, 0.25 HR/9, $55.5M
Prediction: For Round 1, I'm pretty nervous that I'm light on XBH and P quality — a bad combo. This will probably be my worst team. 85 wins +/- 4
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$120M: MH Prob Cobb
Stadium: Turner Field
My choices:
- SP — Joss, because the aggregate salary to the others is comparable but the $/IP is not
- RP — Kimbrel, though I should've taken Uehara
- LRP — Kershaw, duh
- Hitter — Cobb, because Ruth was too expensive
- Defender — Furcal, because I wouldn't be losing much offense relative to a normal SS I'd draft, and the impact of good D at SS is the highest
Here's where it gets fun.
Assuming an even 60M/60M split between hitting and pitching, that left me with $23.2M "for" pitching and $28.4M "for" hitting. However, since the share of IP and position spots taken up by these players is not equal, you need to do some math.
It's easy on the hitting side. 6 positions open / 8 total positions = 75% and 28.4M salary open / 60M salary "total" = 47%. Then I compared .75 / .47 to quantify how much "ahead" I was on salary for hitting, and got a ratio of 1.59. Pause there.
On the pitching side I did the same thing, except using innings and 1,400 IP as my "total". This got me a ratio of 1.55.
When you compare those two values, I saw that I was further ahead on the hitting side, but not by much. I took this to mean that I could spend the remaining salary pretty evenly between hitting and pitching.
Hitting: 5,175 PA, .320 / .405 / .475, $57.3M
Pitching: 1,368 IP, 0.89 WHIP, 0.25 HR/9, $61.8M
Prediction: Worried that I should have taken less salary for pitching and bolstered the lineup more. Call it 88 wins +/- 3
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$140M: MH Dodgers A's Twins
Stadium: Target Field
I started with Group C because it seemed unlikely I'd be able to find 40M from each franchise in that group, which would let me rule out some combinations right away. This ended up being true, and I was left with the Twins and Braves.
Then I went to Group B and did the same thing, but with my players of choice from the Group C teams already in place. I knew these wouldn't be the exact players I would necessarily end up using, but I was just judging overall fit (i.e. the Braves and A's were a weird fit because you had Hornsby/Chipper AND Collins/Baker).
This process left me with only a few combos that I felt great about so I did the same thing with Group A, except this time trying to build full, real teams. I then compared the rosters and picked the best one.
The Dodgers bring most of the pitching and an A+++ center fielder, while the A's bring great hitting and RP, and the Twins/Senators round things out with Walter J and Mauer, Carew, Delahanty, and Travis to fit in nicely against the A's strengths. I actually ended up spending the most on the Twins/Senators.
Hitting: 5,529 PA, .361 / .429 / .531, $68.8M
Pitching: 1,474 IP, 0.86 WHIP, 0.40 HR/9, $70.4M
Prediction: Since I explicitly compared teams here, I really like my chances here but franchise leagues with limited player pools tend to produce parity. Let's say 91 wins +/- 5
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Variable Cap: MH Down 5M But Up 100W
Stadium: Target Field
Ok, so 100 may be a bit of a stretch, but I really like my chances in this theme.
Optimizing for the highest salary seemed like the wrong strategy (if there's one thing we've learned from variable cap leagues, it's that salary is not the biggest predictor of success) but so did being wanton about it. To strike a balance, it seemed obvious to start with Silver King who is already one of the best value elite SPs in the game on a $/IP basis (even if you assume you won't get the full 700 out of him).
I may have been able to get by with two 100-150 IP pitchers to pair with him, rather than three and I sort of regret not doing that and getting an extra 2M, but I think it will wash out. My pen is stocked with the usual, modern suspects. One benefit of having so many low inning RPs is that low inning pitchers are inherently cheaper. There is a direct correlation between number of IP and Value Index (my metric that compares $/IP and ERC#, among a few other things).
For hitting, platooning is generally less valuable at high caps because the $200K you gain/activate by platooning means a lot less than it does at low caps. Regardless, I platooned half of my lineup because there were good options (1902 Lajoie, 2014 Tulo, 1895 Clements as examples) at a few positions where I wouldn't end up sacrificing much. Basically my strategy here was to avoid losing more in efficiency than I would in quality due to having to use lower salaried players otherwise.
Hitting: 5,982 PA, .370 / .438 / .593, $90.1M
Pitching: 1,532 IP, 0.79 WHIP, 0.22 HR/9, $84.9M
Prediction: I'll hedge against my team name and say 95 wins +/- 4
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My predictions put me at 542 wins with a full range of 519 to 565. I had exactly 542 regular season wins in Round 1 last year and that was only good for 17th (565 would've been good for 3rd). So, hoping for strong playoff performances yet again. Luckily I have good bullpens. Good luck everyone.