$70M: MH .263
Stadium: Target Field
This was the most challenging theme. The obvious strategy is to minimize your opponent's walks, and maximize your own. Both of these things are pretty cheap, and have been common strategies for a long time. I also did some other standard low cap things like drafting as many switch hitters and A+ range as possible.
One thing I did a little differently than most was that I drafted "too many" innings and plate appearances for this cap. I could've gotten by with less, but since I was drafting A+ range and have a bunch of low K/9 pitchers, I wanted to take advantage of that by putting them in a hitter's park. Additionally, since my hitters draw a ton of walks but my pitchers don't give up many, a hitter's park would be more advantageous for me than my opponents — walks are likely to capture their potential value in hitter's parks. However, I still wanted to minimize HR in case anyone was crazy enough to draft them, so I settled on my favorite park — Target Field.
It became clear pretty quickly that there wasn't going to be an equilibrium that I was happy with on both sides. If I drafted the hitters I wanted, and even made some concessions, I still couldn't meet myself in the middle on the pitching. To solve this, I waited until I had the lineup and pitchers I wanted and then "bought" OAV and AVG. I spent about $2.7M on bad players — one pitcher and 4 hitters. The hitters will get a little bit of playing time during blowouts but the pitcher will not.
At a low cap, this is really expensive. Normally, you want to squeeze all the juice out at low caps because every single dollar is more valuable. I didn't develop a robust method for evaluating the tradeoff, but since I didn't actually do this until the majority of my team was completed, it was easy enough to look at the team with different iterations and say whether or not it was "better" one way or the other just by eyeballing it.
Hitting: 5,086 PA, .270 / .380 / .397, $32.5M + 4 scrubs (326 PAs, .141 AVG, $1.3M)
Pitching: 1,344 IP, 1.03 WHIP, 0.44 HR/9, $34.8M + 1930 Hal Elliott (124 IP, .382 OAV, $1.4M)
Prediction: I don't think many people will be as comfortable in a relative hitter's park as I am, but we should also do well in pitcher's parks. Feels like a good team. 93 wins +/- 4
$90M: MH The Snoring 20's
Stadium: Target Field
Pitchers from 2020 are cheap because most people don't draft HR hitters, which are their only weakness. Additionally, you can get extra IP out of them due to their high real life K/9. Add in one of the best value SP at this cap, 1920 Babe Adams, and my choice was made. I briefly looked at a few other years but not seriously.
Once you picked your years, this team was easy to put together. Pitchers from 2020, hitters from 1920. I am a bit concerned about the lack of SLG but was able to fit Joe Jackson, so I'm optimistic we'll score enough.
Hitting: 4,843 PA, .323 / .391 / .459, $44.6M
Pitching: 1,355 IP, 0.94 WHIP, 0.76 HR/9, $44.0M
Prediction: There weren't a lot of choices here so I'm expecting a lot of similar teams, which means luck will play a larger factor and achieving a high win total will be challenging. 88 wins +/- 7
$110M: MH Smell Ya
Stadium: Target Field
Wasn't really a good way to do this without a spreadsheet, so I created one that was formatted like this:
|
Team |
Player |
|
Position |
|
Alternative Options |
Pair |
|
Round 1 |
Round 2 |
Round 1 |
Round 2 |
|
1 |
1925 Detroit Tigers |
Al Wingo |
Ty Cobb |
OF |
OF |
|
2 |
1920 Chicago White Sox |
Happy Felsch |
Joe Jackson |
OF |
OF |
|
3 |
1897 New York Giants |
George Davis |
Bill Joyce |
SS |
3B |
|
Once I had that, I had to think about how to approach the problem. I realized that since I had a minimum of 4 bench spots for hitters, I only needed to find 4 pairs of hitters, max. This was good news since I thought that finding pairs of hitters would be challenging. Before committing to any pairs, I also looked for interesting pitcher / hitter combos. I wrote down all the combos as I went along.
Pitchers were easier. The cap is high enough so that I could use the incredible 2020 guys, and modern pitching in general, AND most of them have a stud reliever as a teammates.
Getting under the cap was a bit challenging and required a few last minute tweaks, but thankfully I had my list of options so making tradeoffs was easier than it would've been otherwise.
I had been building with Round 2 in mind the whole time (i.e. I had a "Round 1 team" and a "Round 2 team"). I went stronger on SLG in Round 1 and pitching and defense in Round 2. This worked very well for me in the 110M theme last year, so I'm hoping for the same result.
To do well drafting these teams you had to have a good handle on when you were giving up flexibility, and when doing so was worth it. For example, drafting a great player who could only have a teammate who was a scrub 200K guy might give you a better hitter, but then you'd need to fill up another spot with the same. This meant you just spent 4 of your 50 total roster spots to fill 2 roles. Not ideal. However, if you're at teammates 21 or later, it didn't matter at all.
Round 1 Hitting: 5,054 PA, .345 / .408 / .533, $52.9M
Round 1 Pitching: 1,408 IP, 0.91 WHIP, 0.67 HR/9, $55.6M
Round 2 Hitting: 5,129 PA, .335 / .419 / .509, $54.5M
Round 2 Pitching: 1,394 IP, 0.88 WHIP, 0.60 HR/9, $54.5M
Prediction: I've probably sacrificed some Round 1 wins in exchange for a better Round 2 team. 86 wins +/- 4
$120M: MH Doubles, Obv
Stadium: Jefferson Street Grounds
I made this team by process of elimination of each hit type's primary obstacles:
- Singles teams won't be able to generate enough runs — Dodger Stadium is their only hope.
- Not quite enough people are drafting modern pitchers yet for HR teams to be the best option at this cap. Maybe if it were 20-40M higher.
- Triples teams will do well in triples parks, but are vulnerable elsewhere since triples are rare
- Doubles hitters typically don't have great defense and are slow
The doubles and triples obstacles seemed easier to overcome, so I built two teams. I didn't really care about maximizing the amount of doubles or triples I drafted. In fact, as long as they were over the threshold I didn't pay attention to those stats at all. The hitting stats of the doubles team was simply so far better than that of the triples team that it would've been foolish to pick triples.
I picked Jefferson Street Grounds to give myself at least a +2 on doubles, which does leave me more vulnerable to HR teams than I would've been if I picked Target Field, but it was a risk worth taking since I didn't think too many people would take HR teams.
Hitting: 4,846 PA, .343 / .434 / .527, $57.6M
Pitching: 1,398 IP, 0.82 WHIP, 0.80 HR/9, $61.7M
Prediction: Seems like a bit of a toss up based on who you get paired up with in your league. However, I think this team is pretty good in a vacuum so I'll say 92 wins +/- 6
$140M: MH 2000+ & The Other 20's
Stadium: Target Field
Box 1 gave a lot of interchangeable choices for pitching, and Box 3 gave 1 option that was better than the rest (2000's), so that left Box 2 as the key decision. I thought that both the 1920's and 1880's could be interesting.
The 2000's bring great relief pitching and a couple hitters to get me to $40M minimum (I went with Chipper Jones, Jimmy Rollins, and felt Albert Pujols and Todd Helton were both ok options at 1B).
The 1880's gave less hitting and more pitching than I expected, which meant I needed to use a decade from Box 1 that had a bit of both. The clear choice was the 1910's, so I built that team in full.
Then I turned my focus to the 1920's, which had an abundance of hitting and no pitching. This meant I needed a decade from Box 1 that had a ton of great pitching. Both the 2010's and the year 2020 had that, so I built both of those teams.
Between my options, the 2010's + 1920's + 2000's team reigned supreme. I was hoping to take advantage of the 1880's bad defense mixed with the 2010's great impact on defense, but the team was just way worse.
Hitting: 5,619 PA, .356 / .440 / .560, $71.5M
Pitching: 1,430 IP, 0.81 WHIP, 0.70 HR/9, $67.9M
Prediction: This team should do really well. I feel confident I have the optimal combination. 95 wins +/- 3
Variable Cap: MH Arbitrage .80
Stadium: Yankee Stadium (III)
This was the most interesting league. The stadium restriction is the key to this theme. Since everyone will be in a HR+ park, there's a confusing incentive structure: raise your cap or risk giving up way more HR. Also, to pick your hitters you needed a good read on how everyone else would make that choice. How many HR should you draft?
I figured most people would not be able to resist raising their cap at least a bit, so I wanted to lean into hitting HRs. However, it'd be hard to do that without giving them up myself, right?
To get around this, I spent $3.5M on 300 IP of 2.0 or higher HR/9 (thank you Jose Lima), which let me reach 0.80 HR/9 in aggregate, bumping my cap up by $12M. I basically "spent" 3 roster spots in exchange for $8.5 in salary and now had the freedom to draft pitcher's that restrict HRs but lean fully into hitting them on offense (my starting 8 hit 335 in real life).
Little worried about IP because Walter J doesn't get the same pitch-boost that those 400 IP would get if they were from modern pitchers, but that's a minor concern.
Hitting: 5,185 PA, .338 / .468 / .684, $94.9M
Pitching: 1,398 IP, 0.83 WHIP, 0.29 HR/9, $76.1M
Prediction: Thinking that this will be my best team. 98 wins +/- 3
Overall Prediction: My predictions put me at 552 wins, with a high of 579 and a low of 525. This feels a little low based on how good I feel about my teams, so I think I'll land somewhere in the higher end of that. Since there are 120 participants this year, the stiffest competition is more spread out. I may have been conservative with my predictions. See you in Round 2.