Does anyone else see a BS trend here?  I know the playoffs are a crap shoot, but the number of 100+ win teams getting beaten in the first round by teams 15-25 games worse than them in the standings (with a lot being sweeps) is absolutely ridiculous.  Especially when those weaker teams got owned in the regular season.  WIS really needs to look into that.

My two 98-win teams were beaten by an 84-win team and an 85-win team.

Ask the 1954 Indians, 2001 Mariners, 1906 Cubs, 1988 A's. 

With factors such as luck, platoon advantages, teams tailored to particular parks, etc, I would need to see a systematic study in order to believe that WIS results were anything out of the realm of probability.  I certainly would hate to see WIS built in some additional "advantage" in the post-season just because one team finished with a better record than another.

I've already brought this issue up with admin many times.  If you look at MLB real-life stats, there is a measurable home field advantage.  I'm not talking about ballpark effects.  Check MLB.com.  Almost all teams hit better AND pitch better at home (the exceptions are the teams in extreme parks).  In aggregate, there is an inherent statistical advantage to being home that is not captured in the sim.  In fact, I've played in a number of leagues where the road teams win more than 50% of the games.  This just doesn't happen in real life.  Until they add a small statistical home field edge (even 5%), we will contiunue to see 80 win teams beat 100 win teams in the playoffs.

As a member of the council, I've presented pages of stats to back my argument.  After many years of me arguing about this, they have finally acknowledged the fact that there is a home field avdantage in real baseball.  Now, comes the hard part... convincing them to incorporate into the game. 

And yes, this is coming from somebody who has had dozens of 100-win teams lose in the first round of the playoffs.  (At one point, I want to say that I was something like 3/14 in getting 100 win teams to advance even 1 round). 

I'm done ranting

Home field should count. Speaking of home field advantage, I'm in a new fantasy football league that starts each week off with the home team getting +5 points. I know this is apples to oranges, but the principle is the same... home field should matter.

In terms of the home field advantage proposal.....wouldn't we have a problem if, say a 95+ win wild card team plays a .500 record division winner?......We've already seen .500 teams take out far suprerior teams in the playoffs - we would be furthering the chances of the poorer team in this type of scenario.
The home field advantage proposal does not spefically address the playoff issue (if there is one).

No, but more times than not, the home team will have a better record than the road team.

Big pm game 7 today in 100mm league MLB90739  ALCS

ronthegenius' 1909 Cubbies vs. ballantine's 1940 Yankees.  

Pay-per-view worthy!!!

Posted by contrarian23 on 10/2/2010 2:12:00 PM (view original):
Ask the 1954 Indians, 2001 Mariners, 1906 Cubs, 1988 A's. 

With factors such as luck, platoon advantages, teams tailored to particular parks, etc, I would need to see a systematic study in order to believe that WIS results were anything out of the realm of probability.  I certainly would hate to see WIS built in some additional "advantage" in the post-season just because one team finished with a better record than another.

It seems to happen 1-2 times PER SEASON in the SIM.  You just named 4 teams from 100+ years of baseball.

Posted by mildnhazy on 10/2/2010 5:42:00 PM (view original):
In terms of the home field advantage proposal.....wouldn't we have a problem if, say a 95+ win wild card team plays a .500 record division winner?......We've already seen .500 teams take out far suprerior teams in the playoffs - we would be furthering the chances of the poorer team in this type of scenario.
The home field advantage proposal does not spefically address the playoff issue (if there is one).

If an 82-win team hosts a 98-win team in the first round of the playoffs, I'd expect them to get an edge from that.  Should the edge be big enough to put them over the top? No, but there should still be a marginal edge for that 82-win team at home.  

well then that defeats the purpose of what you are trying to achieve......it seems that you complain about excellent teams losing in the first round of the playoffs to inferior competition.....this will just make it worse in the scenario I described......why should the 82 win team deserve a "home field" edge over the 98 win team wild -card team?...because they got lucky and were in a terrible division?......

we already have a situation where some would say that the 82 win teams are winning far more than is reasonable in the playoffs - in my scenario we are giving them an even better chance of winning......

1-2 times per season in the SIM?  Really?  I'd like to see the evidence of that.  I have a bunch of just completed leagues that I can still view...8 to be exact, and I see exactly 1 example of a team with 100+ wins losing in the playoffs to a team "15-25 games worse in the standings."  And the owner who led the inferior team admitted to running a fatigue strategy - exactly the kind of team that is much better in quality than its record would indicate.

At any given time in WIS, there are at least 100 (probably 2-3 times that) leagues running.  So the entire history of MLB is actually a very good comparison for "recent history" in WIS.  And my list of MLB teams was hardly exhaustive - I just named teams that had 3 of the 4 highest regular season wins totals in MLB history.  All of them lost in the postseason to teams with very inferior W-L records. 

I think the main issue is that there is a measurable home field advantage in real life that isn't captured in the sim.  It doesn't matter if we're talking about 105 win teams or 92 win teams.  It's only when 100+ win teams lose to clearly inferior teams (80-85 wins) does the issue ever come up.  It may not be 1-2 times per league, but I have sim data that shows that regular-season wins has virtually no correlation to success in the playoffs. 

Posted by mildnhazy on 10/3/2010 4:19:00 PM (view original):
well then that defeats the purpose of what you are trying to achieve......it seems that you complain about excellent teams losing in the first round of the playoffs to inferior competition.....this will just make it worse in the scenario I described......why should the 82 win team deserve a "home field" edge over the 98 win team wild -card team?...because they got lucky and were in a terrible division?......

we already have a situation where some would say that the 82 win teams are winning far more than is reasonable in the playoffs - in my scenario we are giving them an even better chance of winning......

It's two different issues.  Home field advantage is a REAL thing and should be credited to all home teams, regardless of record.

But there is clearly some other "flaw" in the system that is making really good teams vulnerable to mediocre teams in the playoffs at (what seems to me to be) an alarming rate.  Whatever that issue is, needs to be identified and fixed.

The Cardinals won the real life WS a few years ago as an 83 win team. It happens, short series produce upsets.