Round 1 Standings, 2020 Topic

milest
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And I'm not sure why everyone thinks 1-run game results are just pure luck. That simply is not true. There is some luck involved, but there is luck involved in every game. If a team implements mop-up level pitchers, they will lose more 1 -run games when the mop-up comes in late, when the bullpen is depleted, as opposed to a team with quality pitchers throughout their bullpen with no drop-off/mop-up type pitchers.
8/11/2020 1:32 PM
ozomatli
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Last year, the difference between 1st and 24th at the end of Round 1 was 39 points. This year it will, at worst, be 27 points. Last year's winner, brianjw, was 33 points back.

Sets us up for a pretty crazy Round 2 this year. This is anybody's game.
8/11/2020 1:48 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by milest on 8/11/2020 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not sure why everyone thinks 1-run game results are just pure luck. That simply is not true. There is some luck involved, but there is luck involved in every game. If a team implements mop-up level pitchers, they will lose more 1 -run games when the mop-up comes in late, when the bullpen is depleted, as opposed to a team with quality pitchers throughout their bullpen with no drop-off/mop-up type pitchers.
It's not just about leads. 1-run games can be deceiving in the sense that they can also be comebacks that come up short. Team goes into the 9th up 5-1. Other team scores 3, ends up losing 5-4. That wasn't a result of their pen blowing a game.
8/11/2020 1:51 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by ozomatli on 8/11/2020 1:49:00 PM (view original):
Last year, the difference between 1st and 24th at the end of Round 1 was 39 points. This year it will, at worst, be 27 points. Last year's winner, brianjw, was 33 points back.

Sets us up for a pretty crazy Round 2 this year. This is anybody's game.
8/11/2020 1:51 PM
NebHusker
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Posted by redcped on 8/10/2020 4:42:00 PM (view original):
This game might end up deciding the final standings spot. NebHusker's squad lost Game 7 in 18 innings to northof49 in the 140M.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=34895248&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=12.95
Looks like this game will indeed keep me out of the cage. THAT is a tough pill to swallow.
8/11/2020 2:55 PM
redcped
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Posted by NebHusker on 8/11/2020 2:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by redcped on 8/10/2020 4:42:00 PM (view original):
This game might end up deciding the final standings spot. NebHusker's squad lost Game 7 in 18 innings to northof49 in the 140M.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=34895248&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=12.95
Looks like this game will indeed keep me out of the cage. THAT is a tough pill to swallow.
I certainly know it will FEEL that way, but logically of course the other three losses in the series counted just as much. And then you could find just one loss from each team all season that "felt wrong" ... those ones where you give up 6 in the 9th to lose by a run that seem to happen quite a bit.

I remember well hearing Eric Karros interviewed during his playing days after a late-season game and saying that games in August count more than the ones in April. The interviewer didn't call him on it, but I turned to whoever I was with and commented on how ridiculous that was.
8/11/2020 3:03 PM
milest
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Posted by Jtpsops on 8/11/2020 1:51:00 PM (view original):
Posted by milest on 8/11/2020 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not sure why everyone thinks 1-run game results are just pure luck. That simply is not true. There is some luck involved, but there is luck involved in every game. If a team implements mop-up level pitchers, they will lose more 1 -run games when the mop-up comes in late, when the bullpen is depleted, as opposed to a team with quality pitchers throughout their bullpen with no drop-off/mop-up type pitchers.
It's not just about leads. 1-run games can be deceiving in the sense that they can also be comebacks that come up short. Team goes into the 9th up 5-1. Other team scores 3, ends up losing 5-4. That wasn't a result of their pen blowing a game.
I agree, but after reading through various forums for the past 2-3 years, it seems that many owners think 1-run games are nothing more than a coin-flip (pure luck) and I don't believe that is true. Yes, I understand that 2-run+ games have more of a correlation to how good the team actually is in comparison to 1-run games. I understand why that is true. I understand that there is luck involved when a team has a 2-run+ game winning percentage of over .600 and a 1-run winning percentage under .500. But I don't believe 1-run game results are based on pure luck. There are ways to draft that reduce your chances of 'bad luck' even though luck will always exist- and perhaps be rather prominent in some situations.
8/11/2020 3:05 PM
ozomatli
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Worst part is that you were leading going into the 9th.
8/11/2020 3:06 PM
NebHusker
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Posted by redcped on 8/11/2020 3:03:00 PM (view original):
Posted by NebHusker on 8/11/2020 2:55:00 PM (view original):
Posted by redcped on 8/10/2020 4:42:00 PM (view original):
This game might end up deciding the final standings spot. NebHusker's squad lost Game 7 in 18 innings to northof49 in the 140M.

https://www.whatifsports.com/slb/Boxscore.aspx?gid=34895248&pid=1&pbp=0&tf=12.95
Looks like this game will indeed keep me out of the cage. THAT is a tough pill to swallow.
I certainly know it will FEEL that way, but logically of course the other three losses in the series counted just as much. And then you could find just one loss from each team all season that "felt wrong" ... those ones where you give up 6 in the 9th to lose by a run that seem to happen quite a bit.

I remember well hearing Eric Karros interviewed during his playing days after a late-season game and saying that games in August count more than the ones in April. The interviewer didn't call him on it, but I turned to whoever I was with and commented on how ridiculous that was.
Yeah yeah yeah, frame it any way you want. . . but to me it will be this game.
8/11/2020 3:11 PM
schwarze
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If owners had a measure of control of how their teams performed in 1-run games, then I would expect to see the same owners having good 1-run records year after year, league after league. I don't have the data handy, but I would be shocked if this were true. My 1-run game record has historically been bad. I don't think I drafted this year's teams with any different strategy than I normally do and I had the best 1-run record in the tournament this year. I will admit that I was very lucky.

While I will agree that 1-run game winning% is not pure luck, it's way more luck than skill. If I recall, Bill James devoted an entire chapter to this in one of his early Baseball Abstracts. When I first read this, I remember thinking this was crazy. Good teams have better relievers and should win more 1-run games than bad teams, but Bill James' had all sorts of data that proved the opposite was true.
8/11/2020 3:32 PM
schwarze
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Somebody should create a theme league to test this. Set the rule where the 8 playoff teams are the teams with the 8 best 1-run game records. Have every team try to maximize their 1-run game record. Then once the season is over, analyze those playoff rosters vs the other teams to see what, if anything, differentiates the teams. Will owners draft strong bullpens? Great defense? Better pinch hitters? Maybe there is a some combination of things that owners can do with their rosters which would affect their 1-run game record.
8/11/2020 3:37 PM
Jtpsops
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Posted by schwarze on 8/11/2020 3:32:00 PM (view original):
If owners had a measure of control of how their teams performed in 1-run games, then I would expect to see the same owners having good 1-run records year after year, league after league. I don't have the data handy, but I would be shocked if this were true. My 1-run game record has historically been bad. I don't think I drafted this year's teams with any different strategy than I normally do and I had the best 1-run record in the tournament this year. I will admit that I was very lucky.

While I will agree that 1-run game winning% is not pure luck, it's way more luck than skill. If I recall, Bill James devoted an entire chapter to this in one of his early Baseball Abstracts. When I first read this, I remember thinking this was crazy. Good teams have better relievers and should win more 1-run games than bad teams, but Bill James' had all sorts of data that proved the opposite was true.
But good teams with bad pens could also end up turning sizeable leads into one-run wins. There are so many ways to get to a one-run result. That’s why it varies so much.
8/11/2020 3:46 PM
ozomatli
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Posted by schwarze on 8/11/2020 3:38:00 PM (view original):
Somebody should create a theme league to test this. Set the rule where the 8 playoff teams are the teams with the 8 best 1-run game records. Have every team try to maximize their 1-run game record. Then once the season is over, analyze those playoff rosters vs the other teams to see what, if anything, differentiates the teams. Will owners draft strong bullpens? Great defense? Better pinch hitters? Maybe there is a some combination of things that owners can do with their rosters which would affect their 1-run game record.
I would play
8/11/2020 4:02 PM
justinlee_24
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well the first question is, what do you mean by 8 "best" 1 run game records? Is it the number of 1 run wins? The overall winning % in 1 run games?

I ask the question because who's 1 run record is considered better? A team who is 4-0 in one run games or a team who is 37-12 in one run games?

If it is just based on highest winning %, the optimal strategy might be to play as few 1 run games as possible and build a dominant team and then hope to get lucky. This is because in general, I think 1 run winning % will always be closer to 0.500 for most teams than their true team winning %.

I think this league would be only interesting if the goal is to get the most 1 run wins, with the caveat that you have to exceed a certain winning %.
8/11/2020 4:14 PM
schwarze
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It would be 1-run win differential (i.e., 1-run wins minus 1-run losses). And it wouldn't shock me if a few teams below .500 teams made the playoffs in this format.
8/11/2020 4:28 PM
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