I'm no statistician but I imagine you would need a lot of data to make a valid conclusion. And you would also need to control for variables such as opponent and park etc.....

Posted by mildnhazy on 8/6/2020 5:05:00 PM (view original):
I'm no statistician but I imagine you would need a lot of data to make a valid conclusion. And you would also need to control for variables such as opponent and park etc.....

Yep - that's part of the struggle with gathering concrete data. There's so much luck that goes into every game it can be tough to differentiate between patterns vs. anomalies. I'd love to put together a test league for some of this - in order to eliminate some of the variables - but haven't put it all on paper to figure it out just yet.

Posted by schwarze on 8/3/2020 8:47:00 PM (view original):
With my 94-win team failing to make the playoffs, what is the over/under for "bonus" points my 5 playoff teams accumulate? Before you answer, please check my previous playoff performances.

I will set the line at 13.5 points.

Little did I know when I posted this, that just three days later, I wold be THRILLED to get to 13 bonus points. Looks like I will probably end up with a grand total of 8 points (my lone remaining playoff team is down 3-2).

Posted by mildnhazy on 8/6/2020 5:05:00 PM (view original):
I'm no statistician but I imagine you would need a lot of data to make a valid conclusion. And you would also need to control for variables such as opponent and park etc.....

I'm at work, so don't have time for a full reply, but I have data (in the form of spreadsheets and a private forum with data dumps of full game logs) on pitching fatigue from upwards of 600 teams and close to a dozen leagues designed around testing fatigue. I'm still running a number of teams to continue gathering data. Aside from the data component, it's also that there's so many different types (pitch-based, in-game, appearance, early-season) of fatigue that come into play, so trying to parse those out and their effects increases the difficulty of just parsing out effects of fatigue in general. Right now I'm focused on grabbing data to help differentiate appearance and pitch-based fatigue. In-game is well understood because of live play and being able to see it displayed, though it is often maligned more than necessary.

There is some theorized connections to in-game fatigue and the pitchers starting fatigue level (whether pitch-based or appearance-based), as well as IP/G components of the effect of appearance fatigue (possibly why it's harder to get 110 quality games out of Mike Marshall than out of Silver King) -- though I don't think the data supports the former, and it looks like a maybe on the latter just eyeballing what I have now. I have general observations and a handful of theories, but I still don't quite have the quantity of data I want to be able to form any conclusions and I haven't even begun to do anything with the data I have yet; other than post single-anecdotal examples here and there in support of a couple of the theories in the forums.

Once I get enough data (and I've posted in the forums asking people for links to teams and leagues I can try to pull additional data from), I plan on posting full charts of the effects, similarly as with the ballpark effects calculator, which I'm still trying to put together in-between work tasks.

But yeah, in short, regardless of cap, at 96% fatigue, the effect is minimal enough to not really be noticeable over a full season (and up to four depending on how many IP/162 the pitcher has), let alone a single game. If they lost at 96%, the probably would've lost at 100%, as well, all things considered, especially the luck factor -- which is much larger than most realize.

Posted by schwarze on 8/6/2020 7:15:00 PM (view original):

Posted by schwarze on 8/3/2020 8:47:00 PM (view original):
With my 94-win team failing to make the playoffs, what is the over/under for "bonus" points my 5 playoff teams accumulate? Before you answer, please check my previous playoff performances.

I will set the line at 13.5 points.

Little did I know when I posted this, that just three days later, I wold be THRILLED to get to 13 bonus points. Looks like I will probably end up with a grand total of 8 points (my lone remaining playoff team is down 3-2).

The UNDER easily cashes.

"My sh*t doesn't work in the playoffs. My job is to get us to the playoffs. What happens after that is f*cking luck." — Billy Beane (aka Schwarze)

Every single playoff team had a series lead and now I only have 1 playoff team remaining. Reverse swept, blow a 3-1 lead... just waiting for to see how much more bullshit WIS can throw at me

You only got 16 points from your four playoff teams, and only have one team left? Man, that sucks.

Posted by schwarze on 8/7/2020 2:54:00 PM (view original):
You only got 16 points from your four playoff teams, and only have one team left? Man, that sucks.

Although your playoff plight sucks, it’s more than balanced out by the safety net of knowing you’re on to Round 2 even if you get 0 playoff points.

Did some probability calculations for how many wins and points you can expect out of each playoff team, assuming a 50% chance to win each game (probably not far off in most cases).

Wins	Probability
0	12.50%
1	18.75%
2	18.75%
3	3.13%
4	6.25%
5	7.81%
6	7.81%
7	1.56%
8	3.13%
9	3.91%
10	3.91%
11	12.50%

Expected Points: 5.492188

Interestingly, the most likely outcome is a first round loss in either four or five, and a championship is just as likely as getting swept out in the Division Series.

Championship is higher than most other win totals because there are lots of ways to win a championship (you could go on an 11 game win streak, or go the distance in each round, or anything in between), and the combinations for everything else are more specific.

Can you calculate the probability of accumulating 4 or fewer points from 4 playoff teams (PennQuaker) and also the probability of accumulating 8 or fewer points from 5 playoff teams (brianjw and myself)?

I've been thinking about the new playoff scoring than ozomatli instituted last year.

Ironically, the depressed bonus scoring rules has probably benefited those with poor playoff performances, because by having all your teams knocked out early, you only lose the single game win points instead of the wins points + all the 5-point bonuses you'd have gotten for winning a series. BUT.... on the flip side, getting swept in the first round seems to hurt more than before the change, because under the old scoring, getting swept hurt of course, but I would always think to myself that at least I got the 5 bonus points for making the playoffs.

In other words, the difference between getting 5 points and 6 or 7 points doesn't seem that big a deal. BUT, getting a big fat zero FEELS worse, because all the work of getting to the playoffs resulted in the same "reward" as somebody who lost 108 games. ZILCH.

Posted by schwarze on 8/7/2020 5:17:00 PM (view original):
Can you calculate the probability of accumulating 4 or fewer points from 4 playoff teams (PennQuaker) and also the probability of accumulating 8 or fewer points from 5 playoff teams (brianjw and myself)?

1.27% for PennQuaker

8 or fewer is going to take me longer than I feel like spending, quite a lot of permutations. I got to three or fewer and it was at 0.29%, my guess would be in the 1 to 3% range

Looks like the clock finally struck midnight on this ol' Cinderella story. I feel like I played way over my head for two months and can't believe it took my longtime playoff ineptitude to finally do me in. Good luck in the final round to those who make it, and see you all next year!