Wow, I've played in the fifth most 1-run games, too.  I would have guessed I'd be more middle of the pack, especially with only 9 1-run games at 110m.

Posted by schwarze on 12/21/2010 3:29:00 PM (view original):
I am just a couple of games away from having all six of my teams with the exact same (slighty-above .500) record.  Wouldn't it be cool if all six of my teams ended up 85-77 for a combined 48 games over .500 and none of the teams made the playoffs?  I'd be ranked around 3rd overall, going into the playoffs... then drop to about 12th after the playoffs ended.  (See ff09 from round 1).

Thru 67 games
35-32
35-32
35-32
38-29
35-32
34-33

That happened to me last year, sort of. Four 2nd round teams missed the playoffs by 1 game, and one team by 2 games, even though I was 30 games above .500 or so. I finished 11th overall.

I'm pretty sure my 120m team is the unluckiest I've ever had.  .140 points below my pythag and 9-17 in one-run games.

It finally happened...an 0-6 set.  I've never finished out of the top ten for this tourney, but this has been the most frustrating of them for me.  It is great competition, though!

Actual vs. Expected Wins - Thru 148 games (Jan. 17)
 

Expected Wins
Owner_____	___60M	___80M	___90M	___100M	___110M	___120M	___Total	Exp Win%	___Act W	____Diff
contrarian23	53.7	57.7	86.1	73.9	62.9	65.9	400.2	45.1%	435	34.8
mildnhazy	61.1	65.6	61.3	78.4	86.7	83.8	436.9	49.2%	465	28.1
shaybee	61.9	58.9	87.3	75.0	86.6	78.0	447.7	50.4%	475	27.3
ballantine	63.5	48.4	69.9	77.8	71.9	81.5	413.0	46.5%	440	27.0
ybjsports	79.2	77.3	67.8	76.7	82.3	75.0	458.3	51.6%	484	25.7
bardin	77.1	78.4	66.6	62.0	81.7	62.9	428.7	48.3%	443	14.3
schwarze	76.7	77.8	84.2	65.4	75.3	76.5	455.9	51.3%	466	10.1
tjefferson	86.1	70.3	70.2	79.6	81.0	73.0	460.2	51.8%	470	9.8
odalisgagne	86.1	78.3	65.6	67.8	67.3	58.9	424.0	47.7%	432	8.0
bigmc	69.3	83.2	52.8	78.9	73.1	79.8	437.1	49.2%	442	4.9
tracyr	84.8	73.0	61.9	65.1	61.7	78.4	424.9	47.8%	423	-1.9
ronthegenius	65.4	81.7	62.9	64.8	85.8	62.2	422.8	47.6%	420	-2.8
footballmm11	71.2	72.5	66.2	63.5	78.4	45.7	397.5	44.8%	391	-6.5
ryan_horner	70.2	71.6	74.0	74.9	66.0	75.2	431.9	48.6%	425	-6.9
beirnej1	32.3	68.2	58.5	63.2	53.7	73.1	349.0	39.3%	338	-11.0
marlowe	75.9	80.5	68.4	66.0	72.1	69.3	432.2	48.7%	421	-11.2
jfranco77	82.4	79.5	87.8	79.0	58.2	71.9	458.8	51.7%	447	-11.8
batandball	80.2	71.6	91.9	74.3	63.0	75.5	456.5	51.4%	443	-13.5
tulsaslide	83.6	73.7	75.2	74.7	70.2	64.2	441.6	49.7%	426	-15.6
alleyviper	95.0	83.5	85.4	91.6	89.8	89.4	534.7	60.2%	518	-16.7
rbow923	89.8	89.5	94.7	81.1	76.4	91.3	522.8	58.9%	503	-19.8
wildthings1	86.6	90.9	84.5	91.2	78.6	81.4	513.2	57.8%	489	-24.2
calhoop	73.3	72.8	74.4	74.7	71.3	71.5	438.0	49.3%	405	-33.0
mensu1954	83.9	79.0	86.1	79.2	80.4	93.4	502.0	56.5%	455	-47.0

Record in 1-run games...
 

Owner_____	___60M	___80M	___90M	___100M	___110M	___120M	___Total	__Win%
shaybee	21-20	17-15	30-21	18-14	20-12	30-18	136-100	57.6%
mildnhazy	29-16	18-23	23-16	33-13	18-22	24-22	145-112	56.4%
ybjsports	18-19	27-22	18-18	21-23	29-14	26-13	139-109	56.0%
rbow923	17-22	25-15	31-15	19-19	16-16	18-18	126-105	54.5%
batandball	16-16	20-23	25-16	24-14	25-30	21-13	131-112	53.9%
schwarze	22-19	29-21	31-21	20-29	18-14	18-15	138-119	53.7%
wildthings1	22-13	19-22	20-26	17-15	19-19	27-13	124-108	53.4%
ronthegenius	21-15	18-13	21-20	25-24	24-15	14-24	123-111	52.6%
ballantine	17-23	20-18	16-24	24-16	26-15	19-16	122-112	52.1%
tjefferson	22-17	17-16	21-16	18-23	27-22	17-20	122-114	51.7%
bardin	24-28	25-20	23-20	16-16	19-17	14-18	121-119	50.4%
tracyr	22-15	20-25	22-26	23-18	18-26	19-12	124-122	50.4%
alleyviper	18-21	21-20	30-18	21-23	11-17	19-24	120-123	49.4%
footballmm11	15-13	27-18	25-28	16-24	17-21	18-17	118-121	49.4%
odalisgagne	22-22	33-22	12-25	15-19	16-21	22-21	120-130	48.0%
ryan_horner	15-16	21-34	20-17	23-20	21-21	15-18	115-126	47.7%
contrarian23	18-25	25-26	13-25	21-18	17-16	21-17	115-127	47.5%
bigmc	19-28	18-22	15-23	20-17	22-17	22-26	116-133	46.6%
mensu1954	21-18	19-33	19-28	33-27	22-25	17-22	131-153	46.1%
calhoop	18-26	26-21	25-29	18-23	22-21	16-26	125-146	46.1%
marlowe	20-16	15-24	19-21	14-21	26-26	13-22	107-130	45.1%
tulsaslide	17-17	20-19	26-23	23-22	12-22	7-25	105-128	45.1%
jfranco77	17-21	25-23	19-26	14-26	16-20	19-23	110-139	44.2%
beirnej1	11-16	23-33	20-22	14-26	11-23	26-19	105-139	43.0%

since the leaders in Actual Wins are all near the bottom of the list, maybe the Expected Win formula is off for this particular tournament.

I don't put a whole lot of stock into the Exp Win% as far as the sim goes. 

The Bill James standard formula is [(Runs ^ N) / (Runs ^ N + Runs allowed ^ N)] where N is typically 2, but I've seen 1.81 and 1.83 used as the exponent.  I've plugged in all the variations and can't exactly match what is shown as "Exp Pct" (for every team) on the advanced standings page.  Even if I did match, the sum of the expected wins does not match the actual wins.  This is due to 200K pitchers giving up 15 runs in mopup duty.  The expected wins is 32 wins higher than actual, which gives the impression that more team are getting unlucky than really are.

My teams almost always exceed their Exp Pct, sometimes by a great deal.  Not because I'm a particularly good or lucky manager, but because I plan on losing 10-15 games each season in which I throw my mop-up pitcher and start my scrubs.  A 32-1 loss counts the same as a 2-1 loss in the standings, but destroys your Exp Pct.  MLB teams can't use this kind of extreme strategy obviously.  It's a loophole in WIS, but considering that we operate under artificial constraints (no AAA for example) that MLB teams do not face, it's a reasonable compromise.

From 44 games over .500 to 30 games over .500 in just three short days...  You can do the math. 

from 4 playoff teams to 2.....can't believe how poorly a couple of my teams have played down the stretch.....

I'm in the same boat, and barley hanging on to 1 of the 2 playoff teams I currently have; took an 0-6 this pm2...

Posted by schwarze on 1/19/2011 3:53:00 PM (view original):
From 44 games over .500 to 30 games over .500 in just three short days...  You can do the math. 

Down to 20 games over.  Let's see if we can go 0-12 today.

Yep, half way there... Need one more 0-6 so I can go from 44 games over .500 to 8 games over in only 5 days.

2 playoff teams, 2 playoff points, over and out.....pretty standard really.......thanks for another great tournament schwarze - see you all next year.