Posted by schwarze on 8/12/2020 1:20:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ozomatli on 8/12/2020 12:22:00 PM (view original):
Of seeds 15-24, only one (Jtpsops) is in the AL. There's a chance that seeds 2-9 all end up in the AL.
Although this is a true statement, we all know that brianjw is not the 15th best owner. discodemo at 13th is also underrated. Also, mildnhazy & mjkrunner have top 5 finishes in previous tournament(s). Will the AL win more games the the NL in aggregate, maybe.... but I think the difference between the leagues is not as pronounced as everybody seems to think.
Of the top 24 pre-ranked owners, there are 7 in each.
NL: 1, 3, 6, 13, 14, 17, 23
AL: 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 12, 19
Yes, AL is a little stronger.
I really think this pre-rank analysis sells the reality a bit short.
For example, 06gsp is #2 in the standings but he is #58 by pre-rank. Raise your hand if you think 06gsp is anywhere near the #58th owner in WISC...
As you've pointed out yourself, there are other owners like jfranco77 who are significantly underrated by pre-rank.
Naturally, there are also big problems with just taking the current standings as reflective of the true ability of an owner (see brianjw).
I decided to compromise and use a composite (50% standings and 50% pre-rank). The results are below...
EDIT: actually after a bit more thinking, it makes more sense to make sure that the pre-rank #s should also be 1-24, just like the standings.
Doing this, ranking the remaining owners by pre-rank...
- brianjw
- discodemo
- ozomatli
- skunk206
- mjkrunner
- milest
- schwarze
- mensu1954
- jfranco77
- mildnhazy
- dougpalm
- justinlee_24
- doctorcc
- PennQuaker
- wink0094
- pkearns
- marinerrott
- tigerrott
- ejstockman
- d_rock97
- thehuseman
- beauchamp
- 06gsp
- Jtspops
NL East:
Pre-rank Order: #1, #5, #10, #14 (Avg = 7.50)
Standings: #15, #17, #10, #24 (Avg = 16.50)
Composite: Avg = 12.00
NL Central:
Pre-rank Order: #12, #18, #20, #22 (Avg = 18.00)
Standings: #1, #18, #21, #23 (Avg = 15.75)
Composite: Avg = 16.88
NL West:
Pre-rank Order: #2, #11, #17, #21 (Avg = 12.75)
Standings: #13, #16, #19, #22 (Avg = 17.50)
Composite: Avg = 15.13
NL Composite Avg = 14.67
AL East:
Pre-rank Order: #3, #8, #23, #24 (Avg = 14.50)
Standings: #5, #6, #2, #20 (Avg = 8.25)
Composite: Avg = 11.38
AL Central:
Pre-rank Order: #7, #9, #15, #19 (Avg = 12.50)
Standings: #8, #3, #12, #7 (Avg = 7.50)
Composite: Avg = 10.00
AL West:
Pre-rank Order: #4, #6, #13, #16 (Avg = 9.75)
Standings: #9, #4, #11, #14 (Avg = 9.50)
Composite: Avg = 9.63
AL Composite Avg = 10.33
The big takeaway? That the AL Composite Avg in all 3 of its divisions is tougher than the NL Composite Avg for the entire conference. Even if difficulty was 100% done by pre-rank though, the AL would still wind up being more difficult than the NL.
8/12/2020 6:55 PM (edited)