Posted by Jtpsops on 10/3/2010 9:10:00 PM (view original):
Posted by tjefferson on 10/3/2010 7:46:00 PM (view original):
The Cardinals won the real life WS a few years ago as an 83 win team. It happens, short series produce upsets.
Keep up with the thread. I never said it doesn't happen. I said it doesn't happen at the rate at which it seems to happen in WIS
Which you have no supporting evidence for except some anecdotal "it seems to happen" stuff. The notable stuff - like when your 105 win team loses to an 85 win team - sticks out for use in such anecdotes, but we don't remember all the other times the 105 win team steamrolls the 85 win team because that's just what's supposed to happen.
As already noted, there may be legitimate reasons (starting a Milacki, getting a couple starts a series out of elite bench bats, etc.) why this
might happen slightly more than in MLB, although the good teams could very well be employing the same strategies. But most of the advantages a SimLeague team would have (great frontline starters, strong short relief, records not representative due to division or luck, specific opponent situations) also exist in MLB.
I'd be interested to see a study, but I'd also strongly suspect that these upsets are happening at about the rate you'd expect from, say, a Monte Carlo sim, and also pretty close to MLB reality. If it wasn't, well, WIS would have to be rigging it and I'd want to stop playing.