We have 96 confirmed owners, so I went ahead and calculated the owner rankings. The complex formula used is based on a combination of Past Tournament Results (more recent tournaments get more weight), Historical WIS Stats and Recency. Your ranking here is also your team ID which will be used to assign you to your league (note that it will be another week or two before league numbers are available).

Rank	Owner________	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	Win%	Titles
1	brianjw								1	2	1	6	2		1	7	1	0.567	50
2	wildthings1						1	3	12									0.602	85
3	discodemo								5	6	4	2	3	4	5	3	15	0.590	66
4	ozomatli			45									29	9	3	1	6	0.573	148
5	skunk206																10	0.588	168
6	mjkrunner																4	0.573	10
7	milest																5	0.578	7
8	schwarze	5	14	7	5	5	3	11	9	8	5	4	27	12	4	11	2	0.551	132
9	rbow923						5	1	2	44	3	12	9	16	9	10	40	0.583	135
10	mensu1954			5	10	3		10	19	15	9						9	0.552	127
11	jbohrman							58		5	14	3	4	6	21	14	13	0.551	28
12	jfranco77					1	29	9	60	10	22	38	68	7	6	5	3	0.548	117
13	mildnhazy	4	4	30	32	13	7	12	11	1	7	17	12	5	8	8	44	0.548	18
14	dougpalm								20	3	17	15	13	65	7	16	24	0.570	158
15	hebdomad																	0.594	9
16	jschirn													20				0.552	8
17	justinlee_24										16	36	7	18	32	9	8	0.539	12
18	buddhagamer								3	7	35	14	20	13	10	13	34	0.542	33
19	doctorcc											53		2	2		46	0.557	15
20	barracuda3													11	23		19	0.554	40
21	contrarian23					14	31	15	53	28	35	9	32				25	0.531	111
22	wetwillytwo			14		42	8	28	28	21	33	43						0.557	32
23	PennQuaker	23	28	2	31	12	4	39					54	35				0.559	112
24	sford		12	15	17	29	17	40	48	71	27	10	33		45		36	0.571	137
25	crystalao									29	18	20	29	3	53	6	54	0.537	11
26	redcped														46	15	7	0.540	19
27	wink0094														54	4	20	0.544	25
28	newarkwilder	64	15	10	18	19	27	42	23	26	21	39		30	55	17	48	0.533	66
29	skinndogg																39	0.554	13
30	BigScungil																14	0.533	8
31	pkearns																	0.583	4
32	Fusion27s											48	41	22	12	59	29	0.530	11
33	pfan																	0.577	8
34	marinerrott																49	0.556	1
35	magicdreamer											52	40	39	18	19	45	0.515	6
36	mpitt76	37	26	19	29	8	12	29	33	35	12	21	39	32	51	25	72	0.520	20
37	markeking	29	10	41	24	20	18	37	61	42	15	57	21	24	49	51	61	0.537	67
38	tigerrott													61	29	45	22	0.544	24
39	odalisgagne						38	17	39	32	50	50	45	68		23	18	0.526	70
40	cstrohmier		13	35	22	26	32		58	30	29			42	43	35		0.533	56
41	ejstockman						59	32	22	54	38	37	22	43	58	24	32	0.523	27
42	ledfoot														33	42	17	0.536	4
43	NebHusker														37	39	12	0.537	6
44	thunder1008																37	0.527	36
45	Humdogs											54	71	92	48	21	29	0.542	37
46	calhoop	41	7	33	20	24	15	16	58	25	90	24	35	68	11	54	27	0.493	66
47	d_rock97														59			0.536	31
48	mllama54						36	53	36	35	47	22	61	25	20	36	51	0.509	31
49	stroh23					35	30		57									0.519	36
50	teamhydro																	0.546	36
51	besterateam				65			52	18	40	52	68	37					0.521	14
52	thehuseman											67	38	36	75	32	42	0.515	13
53	Jdh34							78		56	68	23	61	74	29	22	52	0.495	18
54	dorkster												69					0.546	34
55	gorbyruss						75	71	35	74	44	73						0.523	74
56	daddyzander														68		21	0.524	9
57	beauchamp			67	48	59	81	35	41	55	13	62	44	50	15	61	38	0.482	7
58	06gsp																	0.556	20
59	tracyr	20	16				53	18	76	75								0.531	44
60	cubbies84								30	17	31	41	19	57	69	29	75	0.521	8
61	Jtpsops	83	93					46	65	52	78			47	24	55	23	0.488	12
62	jetscanes	95		44	15	67	16	89							44	33	58	0.481	6
63	footballmm11					51	39	23	61	60	72							0.510	14
64	toddcommish							38	55	80	82	47	74	80	27	40	55	0.503	10
65	bottomlee													60				0.531	13
66	sjh0825				71									37	90	46	74	0.512	45
67	ballsweatsux																59	0.523	6
68	Chisock			64	63	60	80	49	79	57	79	80	59	27	39	64	73	0.499	40
69	DarthDurron									79	73	49	80	59	42	68	68	0.507	41
70	trd3								78	47	47	66	48	56	61	64	55	0.494	19
71	bheid408								25				57				75	0.501	15
72	chargingryno								85	64								0.462	21
73	mickr9																64	0.514	5
74	Sonofodin52	61	46															0.501	12
75	bigsteve12					53		70	82	78	87			53				0.484	4
76	elvisgump									92	65							0.484	6
77	nordawg	46										74	73	80	78	61	80	0.511	25
78	just4me			88	59	47	56	93	86	46	76	77						0.454	14
79	happyhours	94	56	81	37	58	83	94	94	86				73	67	53		0.477	26
80	npg32433											86	92	87	85	37	64	0.472	1
81	thebubbaq					50	94	56	68	89	84	76	67	85	73	49	77	0.485	12
82	gigrant									77	84				80	63	87	0.497	35
83	northof49																88	0.493	21
84	midknight													74	89	58	59	0.479	13
85	duhbigcat																	0.543	3
86	big_dowg																86	0.502	12
87	cholatse						91											0.505	13
88	loyalcanuck											87				67	69	0.492	7
89	deathdealer											96	94	89		71	57	0.480	4
90	marvin_katko																82	0.468	1
91	garmansouth											82		89	82	52	90	0.478	2
92	MitchellBade																	0.472	0
93	tridentric					49	58	95	96	66	94	89	89	96	95	73	95	0.415	10
94	spoonfed									92				94	94	72	92	0.411	2
95	Zachsmikle1																	0.417	0
96	steelerfan19			96														0.360	0

Our highest debut this year is from hebdomad at #14

Tough field this year overall. Think we're in for a competitive tournament

Why have I moved from 42nd to 40th after making the cage last year, and marinerrott moved from 53rd to 34th despite missing the cage in his debut? Because Dad is a BEAST! Ask anyone in ozo's TOC Advantage League and they can tell you. Fortunately, Dad is not in any league I am in.

I was ranked 4th going into the tournament last year. I finished 2nd overall and dropped to 7th this year.

My opinion is that ozomatli's "Recency" variable* adds too much weight to the formula. If you play in a lot of competitive theme leagues like I do (I don't do open leagues), your ranking gets dinged. If you play in a bunch of soft open leagues, you ranking improves.

*I assume Recency is the overall W-L record since the last tournament

I guess justinlee_24's Ugly & Uglier theme league probably cost me a couple of ranking spots (random draw, got stuck with a 120-loss team)

I went from 78 to a whopping 63...granted I think I played...one? other league since last years tourney due to the wonders of work

Most owners fall between 1-2% weight for Recency. You're at 1% exactly. Recency is broken down as follows and has a cap of 5% weight, max:

Since your last appearance (relative to others)...

• Win%
• Playoff Win%
• Championships
• WIS Rating Points

Compared to your lifetime averages...

• Win%
• Playoff Win%

In your case, wildthings1 did not play last year, and skunk206 did well in his first appearance. Since he has less tournament experience than you, his raw stats are weighted more than yours are and he scores considerably better there (second overall, behind wildthings1). You're sandwiched closely between mjkrunner and milest. They both benefitted from the same bump skunk did, though not as much since their stats are not as good as his. One thing I'll add is that it's hard to improve your score after 16+ years in the tournament — look at jfranco77. He's one of only two people to have finished in the Top 10 for the last 4 years but is still haunted by his two finishes in the 60s.

Also, to be fair, the difference between 2nd and 6th last year was 6 total points (though margin is not factored in)

Thanks for the explanation. jfranco's 60th place finishes shouldn't really factor in his ranking. A tournament finish of 60th in 2011 should have zero weight in 2020. Just my opinion.

For what it's worth, when I did the rankings, I had a base formula, but after it spit out the numbers, I would do an eye test, comparing last year to this year, etc. and manually tweak the formula to make the eye test "look" better (i.e., fix some of the anomalies that pop up every year). I probably didn't use the exact same formula two years in a row.

Yeah — I make a tweak here or there each year as well. I should think through a solution to "The jfranco77 Problem" because I agree with your sentiment there.

The problem was that the original formula used the fibonacci sequence to weigh each appearance. This worked well until a certain point where, after 15 appearances, the only one that mattered significantly became the most recent (so a bad finish last year would have devastating effects on your ranking this year). I addressed this by switching to prime numbers, but that's probably an overcorrection.

chargingryno is replacing fire13. I also found a bug with how the formula was treating owners who have never played before, so I updated that. Your ranking may be slightly different as a result but your league assignments remain the same

Posted by ozomatli on 4/14/2020 6:26:00 PM (view original):
Yeah — I make a tweak here or there each year as well. I should think through a solution to "The jfranco77 Problem" because I agree with your sentiment there.

The problem was that the original formula used the fibonacci sequence to weigh each appearance. This worked well until a certain point where, after 15 appearances, the only one that mattered significantly became the most recent (so a bad finish last year would have devastating effects on your ranking this year). I addressed this by switching to prime numbers, but that's probably an overcorrection.

Did you just say fibonacci sequence? I knew somehow some way the secret to all of this was buried in the golden ratio.

Posted by schwarze on 4/14/2020 5:08:00 PM (view original):
I was ranked 4th going into the tournament last year. I finished 2nd overall and dropped to 7th this year.

My opinion is that ozomatli's "Recency" variable* adds too much weight to the formula. If you play in a lot of competitive theme leagues like I do (I don't do open leagues), your ranking gets dinged. If you play in a bunch of soft open leagues, you ranking improves.

*I assume Recency is the overall W-L record since the last tournament

I guess justinlee_24's Ugly & Uglier theme league probably cost me a couple of ranking spots (random draw, got stuck with a 120-loss team)

I think winning % can be misleading also. I got most of my wins in a league about 8-12 years ago. Exact same cap, exact same parameters. I knew exactly who the cookies would be and I made the playoffs every single season. And then I took a 5 year hiatus from playing WIS baseball. Playing in multiple leagues, at different caps, with different competition, makes you more vulnerable to having losing seasons.

Theme leagues with subtle differences that you didn't pick up on while building your team can make a big difference.

Yeah, I wish it were possible to parse that out. I can parse out WS wins by Theme vs Open league, but that doesn't solve the problem. I try to get around it by looking at a ton of factors rather than just win%

Going to post some quick numbers.