Division III NT Discussion- Season 60 Topic

pepwaves
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The NT is already underway, but I wanted to get some discussion going about this season's field. 

Final Four Predictions?
Championship Predictions?
Sleeper Teams?
Upsets?

There seems to be more parity in this year's field of 64 as compared to years past. In my opinion, no teams stand out as as having clearly superior talent...except for Hamline. They are hands-down my pick to win the NT. They haven't lost since the 1st game of the season, and of course, they come from the best conference in Wooden D3. 

Final Four prediction:
(2) Rensselaer Poly vs (1) Hamline
(1) Trinity (TX) vs (1) Beloit

Championship Game:
(1) Beloit vs (1) Hamline (rematch of the only game Hamline lost this season)

Teams that could surprise:
(2) Augsburg- a FCP press team with 8 upperclassmen and good talent will be hard to beat
(7) Brandeis- took down both RPI and Washington (MO) to win Upstate's CT...definitely getting hot at the right time. And of course, carlbuzz is a ridiculously good coach. 
(too bad above two are facing each other so early in the NT)
(5) Ohio Wesleyan- DE-FENSE! clap clap!
(5) Gettysburg- made the final four as a 12 seed last season and returned 10 of 12 players; may not sneak up on people this time around though.
8/17/2012 3:21 AM
killbatman
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I like the Hamline/Beloit prediction, that's probably what I would pick too.  I don't really see RPI as a F4 team this season, but I'd be happy to be wrong.
8/17/2012 9:40 AM
ike1024
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Fine, I'll finally admit that I probably have the most talent on paper, but we all know that FB/press reigns supreme in Wooden.  Wouldn't be shocked at all to lose along the way to just about any team from this point forward.

My predictions are actually identical to pep's.  Wouldn't be shocked to see paul win #37.

8/17/2012 10:02 AM
xulapaul
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Hamline is the pick, no doubt about it.  Trinity is awfully good too, and they are poised to break through and win it all at some point.  Don't sleep on St. Norbert - tons of talent on that team.
8/17/2012 10:38 AM
ejectgoose
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Hamline...

...
...

Beloit
Trinity

...

Augsberg
St Norbert
RPI

...
...
...

St Joseph's Sisters of the Blind

...
...
...

Finlandia
8/17/2012 11:44 AM
goatbear
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ike, I think it's inaccurate to say that FB/press reigns in Wooden when you won back-to-back NT's only 4 seasons ago with motion/man-to-man.  ;) Rose-Hulman Tech won last year with motion/man as well.  The year before RPI won with Triangle/man.  Beloit is the only press team who has won the title in the last five years.  Over the long haul, I think it's more accurate to say that xulapaul has reigned supreme rather than FB/press.  

Either way, if a Hamline v. Beloit re-match is in the cards, it will be a good one.
8/17/2012 1:39 PM
pepwaves007
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Posted by goatbear on 8/17/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
ike, I think it's inaccurate to say that FB/press reigns in Wooden when you won back-to-back NT's only 4 seasons ago with motion/man-to-man.  ;) Rose-Hulman Tech won last year with motion/man as well.  The year before RPI won with Triangle/man.  Beloit is the only press team who has won the title in the last five years.  Over the long haul, I think it's more accurate to say that xulapaul has reigned supreme rather than FB/press.  

Either way, if a Hamline v. Beloit re-match is in the cards, it will be a good one.
Very good point, goat. I would have to agree.

8/17/2012 2:01 PM
ike1024
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I don't think that's true.  I agree on championships, but on overall dominance, you have to include MBBC, a number of the Upstate teams, Trinity, etc.  And I think that some of the teams now running man have only switched over in the last 5-10 seasons.

But yes, I agree, man is certainly capable of winning championships.
8/17/2012 2:05 PM
goatbear
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I'm just saying that I don't think FB/press is inherently predisposed to win.  I think there has been solid representation of FB/press over the years because of good coaches.  If you take our conference as an example, the Minn. IAC has the highest conference RPI this season, but only five teams run the press.  There are now three teams that run FB/press, but two of those teams went 7-20 and 6-21.  Those teams are both extremely young and are just switching over the FB/press, they will be much better in a couple of seasons.  But my point is that the Minn. IAC is leading the RPI race this year not because of FB/press teams, but in spite of them.
8/17/2012 2:51 PM
killbatman
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Yeah I would agree it's more the coaches (e.g. norm and paul) than the system making the FB/Press look like magic.  Coaches as good as those two can win championships with any combination of O and D.  I actually think the sets are reasonably balanced right now if you play to their strengths.
8/17/2012 3:19 PM
pepwaves
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Yeah I agree with goat and kb. FCP seems to be all the rage in Wooden, especially among the best D3 coaches. But if you look at other worlds, man sometimes reigns supreme. 

As for the sets being reasonably balanced...I agree with regards to man and fcp. But, I am starting to wonder about zone. It has seemed far more difficult to win in the NT with zone than with other sets. I thought for sure I had a championship team last season based on talent, but I got booted in the Sweet 16. Of course, that might just be a coaching problem...or I haven't figured out how to play to the strengths of zone. Probably both...
8/17/2012 6:28 PM
pepwaves
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Posted by ejectgoose on 8/17/2012 11:44:00 AM (view original):
Hamline...

...
...

Beloit
Trinity

...

Augsberg
St Norbert
RPI

...
...
...

St Joseph's Sisters of the Blind

...
...
...

Finlandia
Back to the original discussion...

I think you were selling yourself short here goose. Finlandia is only one or two levels below St. Joseph's Sisters of the Blind...not three. 
8/18/2012 3:17 AM
pepwaves
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Lost two of my surprise teams. But, Brandeis and Gettysburg are looking good...as are the rest of the predicted Final Four teams. 
8/18/2012 3:18 AM
ggallagh
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Thanks for the bulletin board material pep. ;) In all seriousness, it's probably too late to say that I thought Millsaps had a great shot to surprise some.
8/19/2012 3:51 PM
jack_duck
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Gotta give props to Elmhurst. Ggallagh has turned them into a power fast. Also 2 E8 teams from the University conference. Can't wait to see how the FF shapes up.
8/19/2012 3:54 PM
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