All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Wooden > Upstate CAC Coaches Thread
12/31/2012 2:26 PM
Reworked prediction without walkons:

Team OVR-WE-DU Top 3 PE Top 2 LP DE Upperclass Score Wins Losses
Chicago 461 88 81 48 5 985 14 2
Skidmore 459 85 74 49 6 970 14 2
Washington 436 79 78 48 5 926 11 5
Brandeis 439 73 67 46 5 888 9 7
CWR 440 79 61 46 6 903 9 7
RPI 446 75 52 58 6 892 9 7
Clarkson 402 67 78 41 6 861 7 9
Rochester 394 70 67 40 6 837 6 10
NYU 411 71 75 36 4 851 6 10
St. Lawrence 407 70 78 31 4 842 6 10
HWS 425 55 71 39 5 821 5 11
Hamilton 399 48 48 51 3 721 0 16
12/31/2012 2:27 PM
Unfortunately, this control may be moree accurate than my formula (only considers OVR-WE-DU and Upperclassmen:

Team OVR-WE-DU Top 3 PE Top 2 LP DE Upperclass Score Wins Losses
Chicago 461       5 511 10 6
Skidmore 459       6 519 10 6
RPI 446       6 506 10 6
Washington 436       5 486 9 7
Brandeis 439       5 489 9 7
CWR 440       6 500 9 7
HWS 425       5 475 8 8
Clarkson 402       6 462 7 9
Rochester 394       6 454 7 9
NYU 411       4 451 6 10
St. Lawrence 407       4 447 6 10
Hamilton 399       3 429 5 11
1/2/2013 10:09 AM
One guess is you're undervaluing defense relative to this other stuff.  Hamilton has the 2nd best Def average in the league, so it'd be real tough for me to predict them to go 0-16.  Similar for RPI.  We rate really poorly in LP, but have by far the best team Def in the league.  I think your formula is probably underestimating the value of that.

Hammy has 20 points in Def on StL, and I think that should definitely outweigh a similar amount of LP or Per.  When you consider that your LP/Per is only measuring a few players, while Def is the entire team, you almost have to count Def more.  20 points in "top two LP" is basically 40 more skill points.  20 points in team Def is more like 200, depending on the number of players.

My suggestion would be to try playing with the weights on these variables.  I'd also think about including team Ath, since I think that might be the #1 rating that correlates to success right now.  Or maybe a combined Ath/Spd/Def variable.  Thanks for posting this btw, interesting stuff!
7/12/2013 2:22 PM
So, I'd like to nominate this as the new (un-)official killbatman image of choice: cdn.uproxx.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/batman.gif
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All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Wooden > Upstate CAC Coaches Thread

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