All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Luck, or Random Chance
5/15/2008 4:30 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By JohnGPF on 5/15/2008
And then I get to wondering how much luck is involved in real life: when Barry Zito can't live up to his high-value contract or when a Walt Dropo comes along and has one sensational season and then falls into mediocrity. Luck in the form of random outcomes must be more of a factor in the sim than in life, but I wonder if luck isn't a much larger factor in real life than most of us are accustomed to thinking that it is.

...while "luck" is almost certainly a greater fact in a computer simulation than real life, i really agree with your last sentence...i think one of the keys to long term careers as a player, manager and gm is the equanamity that comes from realizing how much luck plays a role in the relative short term...

Are you familliar with the works of Voros Mccracken?
5/15/2008 5:18 PM
Are you familliar with the works of Voros Mccracken?

...sure...it's turning out that the, at least seeming, univeralism of his claims were overstated...however as in depth analysis of pitcher performance along the general lines of "things" like BABIP has become more refined that there is a good bit of "obvious" truth in what he brought to the forefront of sabremetric consciousness...

...taken from Diamond Mind, here is one of the many excellent followup pieces to mccracken's work...
5/15/2008 5:20 PM
This post could not be converted. To view the original post's thread, click here.
5/16/2008 8:17 PM
probably more luck than anything else
5/19/2008 2:32 AM
It would be interesting to have the serie of 1000 sided.



Each time i asked that theresponse was L4.


5/19/2008 3:06 AM
Therefore, if the pitching team does walk a batter because it would rather pitch to the following man, it is almost alwaysmaking a mistake by opening the door to a big inning."[

Unless that following man is Richie Sexson...
1/31/2009 10:23 AM
Quote: Originally Posted By JohnGPF on 5/14/2008
...the site uses an electronic 1000 sided die to determine it's basic results...presumably because baseball deals in so many 3 digit numbers---.310, .405, .788 etc...

...let's say there is a player who has a .299 AVG and no walks and there are no other effects in the game to alter his AVG....to get a hit all he has to have is a "die roll " between 1-299 and he has a hit...he has 299 successful hit numbers out of the 1000 possible numbers...

...let's say that in SIM play he achieves exactly 700 PA which for him would be 700 ABs...there is a very, very small chance he will get 700 different die rolls in his 700 PAs...there is a very, very, very minute chance that all 700 will be above 299...in which case he'll bat .000...

...no alteration to his stats, no introduction of streaks, no being cursed by hateful programmers, just incredilby bad "luck"....

...and the SIM is much more complicated than that simple example...sometimes his "target" number will be 250, sometimes 400...and there is no telling when he'll get a die roll of 325...if he gets it when the target is 250, he's out...if he gets it when the target is 400, he has a hit...



3/24/2009 1:24 PM


Quote: Originally Posted By doubletruck on 5/14/2008




Most of us have experienced the kind of weird variation that John's example invokes.

On my current teams, the same Bobby Abreu is playing on two very similar teams, both in $80m leagues in RFK Stadium.

One of them has 174 PA, 3 HR, 15 RBI, a .215 BA and .322 OBP.
The other one is 113 PA, 4 HR, 22 RBI, a .337 BA and .398 OBP.

Given the same talent and similar context, the rest is just luck.

What drives must of us stir crazy is when bad luck sticks to one player -- or one lineup spot or roster position -- and won't go away.

I've used both Sandy Koufax and Joe Wood in their best years in the same rotation spot on one high-cap team that is in first place just barely. If either Sandy or Joe came anywhere close to expectations, the team would have a sizeable lead. Instead, Koufax went 2-7 and Wood is 1-8. Two other Joe Wood '12 iterations on other teams in the league are 7-5 and 7-7.

And then I get to wondering how much luck is involved in real life: when Barry Zito can't live up to his high-value contract or when a Walt Dropo comes along and has one sensational season and then falls into mediocrity. Luck in the form of random outcomes must be more of a factor in the sim than in life, but I wonder if luck isn't a much larger factor in real life than most of us are accustomed to thinking that it is.


excerpts from my now extinct " Does the SIM insert drama intentionally? " thread



If doubletruck's Every - Player - Is - An - All - Star - Theory applies, would this mean themes and progressive leagues which have a small, more similar to Real Life population of players have significantly less drama.

I do not accept the Every - Player - Is - An - All - Star - Theory as an explanation for the drama. I anticipated hearing it, but do not think that is the reason for how the SIM works.

The first year I was on the site I tried out many types of leagues, only a handful of open leagues, and now am currently only in Year by Year Progressive Leagues and/or Historical era Leagues, progressing at two or six seasons at a time.

And my problem is it is much more likely to see Dal Maxvil, Duane Kuiper, or picher Bill Hands slug his team to victory then baseball history would lead us to believe.


----------------------------------------------------------------


10/09/2006 at 5:01 am
doubletruck

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 2934 Dal Maxvill was a stick. That's history...




----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 9:16 am
JohnGPF

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 19150 ...assuming a given owner is neither an idiot nor a genius, the salary cap keeps the talent levels of the various teams much, much closer than they are in real life...

...the only drama in the game is the drama we impose upon it...


----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 10:12 pm
harnclan

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 353 In addition to John's comment, couldnt it just be as simple as the fact that during the season there are only 16 games a night and "stranger than fiction" things still happen occasionally

(how 'bout an 0-11 streak in the middle of a 30 game hitting streak) ...

but seem to happen much more often here where there are literally hundreds (thousands?) of games played each night?

Maybe just sheer volume of games combined with (in most cases) far more closely matched talent levels?


----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 10:14 pm
billyho1515

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 41963 The online poker:bad beat argument.


----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 10:23 pm
harnclan

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 353 I'm afraid I'd have to agree with that argument too. Have taken my share of bad beats at the poker tables in Vegas ... but the pure volume of hands that I've played online hugely outnumber the 20 or so hands per hour at the table.


----------------------------------------------------------------






10/09/2006 at 10:38 pm
JohnGPF

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 19150 ...there were 42 MLB games from 9/28-9/30 with 11 decided in the last 2 at bats for each team...the last 3 games for the first 14 of teams in my TMC have 10 decided in the last 2 at bats...


----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 10:41 pm
JohnGPF

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 19150 ...same # from 9/26-9/28 with 10 late decisions...

...same # from 9/18-9/20 with 10 late decisions...


----------------------------------------------------------------




10/09/2006 at 11:02 pm
harnclan

Hall of Famer

Forum Posts: 353 wow, thats pretty consistent

-----------------------------------------------------------------------



new thread
Luck league??doubletruck




10/13/2009 3:23 AM


of 2
All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Luck, or Random Chance

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

Popular on WhatIfSports site: Baseball Simulation | College Basketball Game | College Football Game | Online Baseball Game | Hockey Simulation | NFL Picks | College Football Picks | Sports Games

© 1999-2014 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.