All Forums > Green’s World Rankings 4-20-10
4/20/2010 10:02 AM
Below are my Rankings of the HBD worlds

Theory - my personal theory is that one way to measure the quality of a wolrd is through the comepetitive balance in the world ... and the way to do that via more easily measurable indicators is through the "spread" of statistics ... as such, a league with a tight grouping of statistics across the 32 teams is "better" than a league of haves and have-not extremes

Calculation - first, I wanted to limit the amount of data pulls I had to do, so I got all my data from the team pitching stats screen ... I'm aware that hitting statistics would provide more depth to the calculation but such is life ... from the pitching screen, I pulled 3 statistics from each world

1) Wins
2) Pitching Runs Allowed
3) Unearned Runs Allowed (an attempt to measure defense from the pitching screen)

for each world, the calculation I used is the standard deviation for those 3 stats ... I pulled the stats for both the most recent completed season, and the season before that

for the total calculation, I weighted the last completed season at 2/3rds, and the season before that at 1/3rd ... obviously, if a world has not completed 2 seasons, it is not in the Rankings

I took the average of those calculations across all worlds, and each world's "score" is the amount by which they are over or under the average of all worlds ... as such, a world with a score of zero is "average," and the sum of all world scores is zero

because the standard deviation of runs and is naturally higher than the standard deviation of wins, I applied some weightings so that the Score is composed about 50% by the wins calculation, 25% by the runs calculation, and 25% by the unearned runs calculation

the worlds are ranked by the 2-season weighted average, but in the list, I also did a score and rank based only on the last completed season and one only on the season before that ... the last set compares these ranks to the ranks I did a last may

at the top is what "score" Major League Baseball would have in this ranking, based on 2009 and 2008 MLB stats
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One big note is that the competitve balance across all worlds seems to be getting better compared to a year ago ... the average standard deviations across all worlds is coming down

This Ranking / A year ago

Wins: 14.9 / 15.5

Runs: 131.4 / 140.0

Unearned Runs: 21.8 / 24.5
4/20/2010 10:17 AM
I guess, when you get eliminated in the first round of the playoffs, you've got plenty of spare time on your hands.
4/20/2010 11:10 AM
you would certainly know
4/20/2010 11:14 AM
I think we're both sitting on the sidelines in that world. The difference was I didn't mock your lack of post-season success until today.
4/20/2010 12:24 PM
Yea Mike was busy.
4/20/2010 12:53 PM
FWIW, I think this is cool. Nice job 98greenc5.
4/20/2010 2:09 PM
so from what I see here - Moneyball is actually better than real life? LOL
4/20/2010 2:12 PM
Moneyball was ahead of the curve by laying out win requirements.
4/20/2010 2:12 PM
Quote: Originally Posted By csherwood on 4/20/2010
so from what I see here - Moneyball is actually better than real life? LOL
said more specifically for the statistics-minded users that like to poke holes in my calc, Moneyball has a lower standard deviation of win totals than the MLB
4/20/2010 2:14 PM
MLB doesn't have win minimums. They just fire people for losing.
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All Forums > Green’s World Rankings 4-20-10

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