Yes, passed balls.

Arm strength deters attempts.   Arm accuracy increase CS%.

what is the cause of tommy john surgeries:  limiting arm range by avoiding long toss workouts, limiting throwing between starts/bullpens, the emphasis on winning at the youth level, one inning pitchers, less unstructured play, or the decline of american fitness?

MAY I state my theory for the cause of Tommy John surgery?

The cause of Tommy John surgery is... Tommy John surgery. To be more specific, it's guys throwing 92+.

Biomechanic studies have proven that the upper limit of human arm tolerance is the forces put on the arm when a ball goes above 92 MPH. Ergo, every time you throw 92+, you are stressing the arm to close to falling apart. The weakest link is the UCL.

When I was growing up, only the very rare few pitchers threw 90+. And only the unnaturally gifted could do it for a career. Everyone today says, look at Nolan Ryan. Back then, everyone knew Nolan Ryan was a freak, no one with any sense would try to do what he did. Pitchers learned to throw with command and control, and knew they had to go 7,8,9 innings... and major league teams were looking for guys who could give them 35 starts.

Today, grade school and high school kids know that no scout is even going to come look at you if you don't go 90+ early. It's like the old joke we used to have about why Dominican players swung at everything - you can't get off the island by walking.

Everyone has to throw 90+ means everyone has to blow out their arm. But now you can reliably PATCH the arm, at least once, probably twice. Teams now are "budgeting" that a young guy is going to have TJ and take a season off. The most cynical viewpoint is that it's better if a kid has it early, get it out of the way so he get on with his career. There's even talk of a couple of kids being drafted in the first round this year who already need or just HAD TJ.

In HBD terms, it's like us hoping a prospect gets a 360 day injury so we can use the Injury Bug on him.


But you can't stop it, because no one now is going to say, we've got to stop letting these kids strike everyone out.

Sorry to hog the thread for a minute, but... AM I WRONG?

IMO, it's year-round baseball.   The arm only has so many throws in it.   Back in the day, we'd play baseball Feb/March-June/July.   We wouldn't do **** during the summer(I played in a few "summer" leagues) then play football in the fall, basketball in the winter.    So, on some made up scale, I'd have 10,000 pitches on my arm by college whereas today's kids have 3 to 4 times that many.    And, to be clear, play catch in the backyard isn't the same as throwing pitches in a game.

It's something I discovered along the way.   Yes, what you suggest is correct but there aren't that many of them.

Well, you did state your opinion.   Not sure it's that far off from my opinion.   Wear and tear seem to be the crossing point of our theories.

Would Gordie Howe need Tommy John surgery, or would he just tear the ligament out with his bare hands and pitch without it?

Gordie Howe would give himself Tommy John surgery and rename it Gordie Howe surgery.   After he was done kicking everyone's *** who has said "Tommy John surgery."

what would Chuck Norris think of that?

Do you like Gordon's fish sticks?

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Clay Cameron Am I overrating Cameron's ratings or is he underperforming at the ML level?

I eat fish sticks a couple of times a year.   Unsure of the brand.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Emmanuel Welch is probably the closest I have to him.  Welch is a lefty but his career numbers indicate that Cameron should be about 8% better than he's produced.

ok, season's over. players can still be re-signed long term before the w.s. ends. will their demands be the same after rollover when your team still has first crack at re-signing (assuming the player isn't good enough to test free agency no matter what)? and to go along with that, do you ever re-sign your mlers long term the season before or do you wait to see how much decline there is before deciding? not talking arb eligible here.

If their ratings change, demands will differ.   I'm not sure if demand will change if the ratings don't change because I never wait but I don't think they do.   I always wait until the season is over.   A crushing injury could devalue a player to the point where I don't want to bring him back.