All Forums > Question on ballparks.
6/21/2010 3:51 PM
Let’s say you pick a stadium that suppresses HR’s, but increases doubles. In your opinion, If you select a Babe Ruth would those HR’s he hits turn into doubles and his batting average stay the same? Or Would those HR’s turn into more outs and his BA decrease?
6/21/2010 5:55 PM
Good question.  I have always assumed, rightly or wrongly, that whatever is suppressed is converted into whatever is fostered.  So at the Astrodome, AT&T, Petco and Comerica, for example, HR's are converted into triples, because those parks have big (-) numbers for HR's and big (+) numbers for triples.  At Busch I and Olympic, HR's are converted into doubles, and at Dodger Stadium, HR's are converted into singles (if that's possible).  At a park like Safeco, which suppresses everything, I assume the HR's become outs.  But I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.
6/21/2010 7:14 PM
I don't know whether or not you are completely correct, but I think you are on the right track.  I do know that I have had hitters with 0 triples in a season in RL hit triples in WIS.  It doesn't happen often, but it does happen occasionally.  So the park and/or the pitcher has changed a HR to a 3B.

6/21/2010 8:12 PM
My experience suggests parks such as the Astrodome suppress HR's into long fly ball outs, but boost speedy guys past their RL triples. Ruth for instance will hit many less HR's and about normal RL #'s for doubles and overall hit below his RL average.  I simply use the formula that +1,+2, etc. will increase that particular type hit, conversely -1,-2, etc. will suppress it.  The truth of the matter is we have all seen home Petco teams hit over .300 against all logic, but as a general rule I stick with my formula. Roughly 80% of my teams consequently do better at my home park.
6/21/2010 10:54 PM
So -- and I realize this is a long drive to a small house - if what Napolean is saying is true, it makes even less sense to play Ruth in a park that suppresses HR's and encourages something he doesn't ordinarily do well.  The Astrodome won't convert Ruth's HR's into something "almost as good," like triples.  The Astrodome will punish HR hitters, as you would expect from its HR factors, and reward good triples hitters, like Willie McGee and Willie Wilson.   I guess this is all the more reason to build teams to suit their ballparks -- triples teams for the Astrodome and AT&T, singles teams for Dodger Stadium, HR treams for Coors and YS III, etc.

I guess common sense would have led me to the same conclusion, but I had to figure out first that you couldn't build the kind of balanced team you want, then "cheat" the ballpark a little by throwing in a HR hitter who will create a lot of triples in a triples park to go along with the triples hitter who absolutely flourishes.  So the HR hitter will just see a lot of homers become outs. But presumably you could still take a "fast" doubles hitter with a high speed rating who doesn't have a lot of RL triples (if such a player exists), adjust his settings to aggressive baserunning, and watch him get more than his fair share of triples in a triples park -- right?
6/22/2010 1:20 AM (edited)
If that's true, than something is really wrong.  Let's take Comerica for example...+3 triples, -2 HR RF/LF.   If a HR hitter goes there in real life, will he hit some triples? Absolutely, but to say every "homerun" ball he hits that doesn't go out is going to be either a double or triple is ridiculous.  There has to be a balance.  If a guy goes to Comerica and hits 50 balls that would be HR in a neutral park, you'd expect to see something like 30 HR, 10 doubles/triples in the gap and 10 fly outs.

Unless all his HR hits are sent to the gap, and not at a fielder, then his HR shouldn't all be turning into "lesser hits".  Therefore, his HR should go down, his triples should go up, and his BA should go DOWN.
6/22/2010 1:47 AM
Sounds logical, Boogerlips.  But I did a fast spot check of some top HR hitters' performance histories, and that doesn't really hold true.  Babe Ruth is one of the few big HR hitters who consistently outperforms his RL numbers in SIM (maybe the only one, not counting guys like Cy Williams).  His doubles tend to be up a little over RL, but that's only because his hitting in general is up a lot..  He actually overperforms his RL HR totals by a lot more than he overperforms his RL 2B totals.  That doesn't seem to indicate that a lot of his HR's are being converted to doubles in parks that suppress homers.  And a fast spot check of the top HR seasons of guys like Foxx, Greenberg, Bonds and McGwire is inconclusive.  Both HR's and doubles are down quite a bit, which is what you'd expect considering the superior quality of pitching they face in SIM.  Only Ruth and the usual cookies emerge transcendent.  But it was a good theory while it lasted.

And if all suppressed hits are still hits of lesser value, what is a suppressed single?
6/22/2010 7:00 AM (edited)

I've been here nearly three years and seen this topic discussed countless times. You haven't been here for three years and haven't seen this topic discussed countless times. I don't really care what you end up believing, but I'll at least offer you the truth of how the game works...

As I stated in my first post, suppressed singles become outs. They are the only batting average modifier. All other suppressed hits become a lesser hit. HRs will become either a 3b,2b, or 1b.  Ballpark factor is taken into account as I recall. I don't know if the hit ratios assigned represent a normal distribution or if a heavy percentage of HRs become doubles. Before the '07 update, all suppressed hits became singles only, so the xbh's are an improvement in most peoples opinion.

As for the performance histories, it looks like you ran into our old friend Normalization. Babe Ruth hit HRs when no one else was. That can't be said of his doubles. If you can't take my word on all this and need evidence, I'd recommend you look at performance histories from a relatively neutral normalization era.

6/22/2010 8:02 AM
I always thought that fast HR hitters (Mays, Bonds) got their missed HRs converted into triples, and slow HR hitters (Gehrig, Bench) got their missed HRs converted to doubles. I am sure the park has something to do with it but that was always my assumption.
6/22/2010 8:09 AM
I just submitted a ticket about forum health. All of the great discussions of the past are being deleted which is a shame. I'm pretty good at remembering topic titles and posting users who started it etc..., so I used to be able to find old topics and hyperlink them, but looks like those days are over. I suggested to admin that they keep topics with a lot of posts longer (like 18months).
6/22/2010 8:11 AM
Quote post by boogerlips on 6/22/2010 7:00:00 AM:

As I stated in my first post, suppressed singles become outs. They are the only batting average modifier.

End Quote

Oddly, I'm not seeing that first post but I agree that the singles modifier is the only one that affects batting average.
6/22/2010 8:13 AM
My first post got deleted in my process of figuring the quoting process out. Oh well...
6/22/2010 11:15 AM
Not disagreeing with anyone about how the SIM works, but I will say again, if that's indeed how things go, then it is wrong, because in real life, "home run" balls at bigger parks do not all become lesser hits. You would have at least a handful of flyouts to the warning track, etc.
6/22/2010 1:13 PM
Right.  Look at old (1950's) Yankee Stadium; look at what happened to Juan Gone in Comerica; look at Griffith (in RL); etc.

What about the opposite situation?  Do 3B become HR in smaller yards?  B. James contended that Sam Crawford would have been a monster HR hitter today.

Only, I don't think the sim works that way, while agreeing that it should.  I think the sim only takes into account the rate of HR, etc., not the overall size or detailed dimensions of the park, let alone the physical ability of the hitters.  So---a shortcoming of any sim I've seen---it's theoretically possible, given enough simmed games,  for banjo hitters to hit a HR to CF, or even down the line, in Comiskey or Forbes.
6/22/2010 2:14 PM
Posted by boogerlips on 6/22/2010 7:00:00 AM (view original):

I've been here nearly three years and seen this topic discussed countless times. You haven't been here for three years and haven't seen this topic discussed countless times. I don't really care what you end up believing, but I'll at least offer you the truth of how the game works...

As I stated in my first post, suppressed singles become outs. They are the only batting average modifier. All other suppressed hits become a lesser hit. HRs will become either a 3b,2b, or 1b.  Ballpark factor is taken into account as I recall. I don't know if the hit ratios assigned represent a normal distribution or if a heavy percentage of HRs become doubles. Before the '07 update, all suppressed hits became singles only, so the xbh's are an improvement in most peoples opinion.

As for the performance histories, it looks like you ran into our old friend Normalization. Babe Ruth hit HRs when no one else was. That can't be said of his doubles. If you can't take my word on all this and need evidence, I'd recommend you look at performance histories from a relatively neutral normalization era.

Yep, as usual ol' boog gets it right.  Tho my understanding is that it is very rare for a HR to get supressed to a single.  They almost always get turned into triples or more likely doubles.
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