1/18/2012 4:56 AM (edited)
UMPI Outlook - Season 54
Offense: Fastbreak
Defense: M2M

Starting Lineup (stats from 53)
PG: SR John Desimone (27 GS, 11.5ppg, 4apg, 3.1 topg, 1.1 spg) one of 2 remaining players recruited by predecessor
SG: SR Curtis Pendleton (27 GS, 11.8 ppg, 1.9 apg, 2.3 topg, 1.3 spg) signed as juco 2.
SF: SO Rodney Witt (0 GS, 18.3 mpg, 2.9 ppg, 2.6 rpg) platooning with SO Paul Jarnigan (26 GS, 5.1 ppg, 2.2 rpg)
PF: SR Adam Bess (1 GS, 4.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.1 asp) signed last year as a transfer from Guilford
C:  SR Keith Shurtz (27 GS, 7.4 ppg, 7.6 rpg, 1.5 bpg) the other holdover from previous regime

1st reserve guard: SO Werner Heredia / SO Joshua Enochs
1st reserve big: SO Andrew Yamaguchi

I spent 3 seasons here at UMPI transforming to the FB offense and recruiting some studs, then as part of a long term master plan to get myself into position to be able to take over Syracuse in some world someday decided that my best chance was to try to be in position to do so in as many worlds as possible, so I moved up to D II in preparation for my run to D I scrub, D I mid, D I BCS and then finally SU. For a number of whiny reasons I decided this plan sucked. Meanwhile, another coach took over at UMPI and took my senior studs and made them play motion and vastly (IMHO) underachieved with my roster. After stops at Montana St., Billings (where 4 of my 5 seniors [avg OVR 656.6] are starters this yr) and U of DC (who went to the Elite 8 with a roster half full of my recruits) my replacement at UMPI moved on, and I returned to the NAC, which, as one could tell by my frequent stops to chat in the CC, I never fully left. (Re-reading all that I realize it may come off as rather blowing my own horn - my point was actually just to demonstrate my knack for leaving just as things get good...)

I am in year 2 of re-rebuilding the Owls. We've put the break back in on offense. Unfortunately, the change in philosophy meant that a few of the former coach's players were ill-suited for our current strategy, and we parted ways, leading to a rather large recruiting class last year, and we sport 8 underclassmen (one red-shirting). We are young and learning a new offense, but the rest of the south seems to be rebuilding as well (mostly) so expectations for a PIT run are not wildly out of bounds. We've got 25 high potentials showing still (including high for Pendleton in PER) and had good growth last season that we expect to build upon. We are 2 seasons away from even being noticed by the upper half of the NAC, but the bottom half better watch out.

Our NC schedule features 10 senior laden squads (9 simai, 1 taken by a human this yr) most on the road, and while we lost the first in OT, we should win most of these and establish a decent RPI. Once conference play starts, the lineups will be examined closely to see how much player development has occurred to determine the best lineup. Likely will finish 3rd in the south, win the 1st rd 3-6 game and lose 2nd rd CT game. Of course if the players don't develop as expected, this is going to sound awfully silly in retrospect next month...

We brought in 2 freshmen: PG Steven Merritt (RS) with high-high potential in def, per and bh. He came in recruited with high pot in ath and spd, but the 19/20 "bug" showed both potentials to be exactly 20 points, so he will finish with 37 ath, 77 spd. PF Joseph Beach will see 8-10 mpg this season. He comes in with high-high potential in ath, spd, reb, and sb, low high in per and pas and unknown highs in FT, dur, and defense. He should be a 700+ player senior year.
1/18/2012 4:21 PM (edited)
Well I have 5 mins to kill at work and will see what the Majik-8Ball says for Mt Ida.
We underachieved, (in my eyes), last season. The 5 guys I recruited 4 seasons ago were the best 5 players for their level I believe I have ever landed. They came up together, developed well and by their Sr. season were everything I had hoped they would be. We wen't 26-0... but played something like 4 games in 8 days to end the season. Most of those we didn't win in the same fashion we had played most of the season.
I know this game is a game of numbers... ran by a sim engine with one game's result having no relationship to the next. But it has always amazed me how my teams (and others as well), seem to have great runs... and then play flat for 5-7 games. We ended the season flat.... we lost in the CT, and really didn't lose... we got Drilled by 20. Anyway. we then played pretty mediocre in the NT and lost after a couple games, (as I knew at this point was coming).
well enough of dwelling on the past.......

This season...
Well this season looks to be a treading water season for Ida. We will quitely slide down from the top rung of the North... and land at the 2, 3 or maybe even 4th spot. Hard to say where we end up. We still have 3-4 very good players. But we will miss the guys that left alot. We won't be running up-tempo 90% of the time and leading the Nation in scoring, FG% and 3pt FG% like the last couple seasons. We will however be trying to hide the youngsters on the squad and using some smoke and a few mirrors as we enter conference play to try to survive and get our 14 wins.
FCP is punishing when you bring in 7-8 guys in two seasons... but we prospered the last 2 seasons because of it so we must take the down-side and live with it.
Our recruits from last season... are slow, pretty unathletic,... kinda ugly and well.... I just don't like em.
Our recruits this season are much better... I may be looking for an excuse to pull the plug on 1 or 2 of last seasons turtles and drop in these kids.

Hail - will be a perfect Mizzou77 PG. He will be fast (90's), fairly athletic...(50's), play just enough Def (mid-50s), and not turn over the ball (85bh / 90 pa), when our offense is scoring 100+ PPG again in a couple seasons. His WE is poor but he only has 125 or so potential to improve anyway so it doesn't make alot of difference. He shoots FT's poorly and has lame stamina will be his main 2 problems.

Jackson - should be a pretty decent SG after he develops for a couple seasons. Hail was pulled down... Jackson was on my D3 screen from the get-go. I needed a guard to score from the 2-spot tho and he looked like the guy. His FT shooting and stamina will also be the main issues for us to deal with a couple seasons down the line.

Corvin - My PF who will probably never play the 4. He has potential to be pretty good, took a RS and promised me he would study hard and make me very proud of him someday.

Mr Cardinal - he has potential to be pretty decent as well. His stamina and FT% are suspect, however, he and two of the others have multiple High/High potential areas and all 3 have the ability to reach 700 overall. 


1/18/2012 2:56 PM
Tried your Majik-8Ball and asked if we'd win more than we lose.  The ball answered "Don't Count on It".  I already drafted a memo to the AD giving him a heads up.
1/18/2012 5:41 PM
Coach Tyber bought himself some badly needed karma with the alumni after last season's 17 win campaign ended in a hard fought but tough loss in the PIT Championship Game.  Expectations for this season are high on campus and calls for a return to the National Tournament after a 4 season hiatus are loud; the pressure is on to build upon last season's success and for Elms to return to relevance in the NAC North.

The non-conference schedule for this season is headlined by OR's #23 ranked Lakeland team but the rest of the schedule looks manageable so Elms looks to have a shot at a respectable record going into conference play.  The NAC North however is LOADED this season and the South is never a slouch so improving upon last season's 6-10 conference record may be very tough.

As was the case with last season's squad, Elms will only go as far as their grind it out style defense can take them as the team will continue to struggle mightily on the offensive side of the ball.  The team's offense will only improve marginally throughout the course of the season as well so expectations of late bloomers on the offensive side of things is very low.  Elms will be living and dying this season solely on the strength of the defense and praying it will be good enough to reap some postseason attention.


1/18/2012 8:44 PM
Husson's preseason write-up to come. I am swamped with work right now. But am trying to come up with something for all of you. Look for it Friday at the earliest.
1/19/2012 6:32 PM
Same with Salem St.  Hopefully something this weekend.
1/21/2012 7:01 AM
I Thought I'd save this.... Just because
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#4 Becker ixolabrat 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#23 Elms tyber90 0-0 4-0 2-0 2-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#20 Johnson St. bieberfever 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#12 Lasell carlbuzz 0-0 3-1 1-0 2-1 1-0 - L1 0 0
#21 Husson bigtexhawk 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - L1 0 0
#6 Castleton St. rdb03161987 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 1-1 - W3 0 0
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
Maine Maritime Academy jazzcog 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#13 Mount Ida mizzou77 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#1 Thomas kujayhawk 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
Salem St. jodester22 0-0 3-0 1-0 2-0 0-0 - W3 0 0
Maine, Presque Isle dacj501 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - W3 0 0
Maine, Farmington teamkf 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - W2 0 0
as a buddy of mine likes to say..... That's some sweet sugar right there.
1/21/2012 6:13 PM
Posted by mizzou77 on 1/21/2012 7:03:00 AM (view original):
I Thought I'd save this.... Just because
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
#4 Becker ixolabrat 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#23 Elms tyber90 0-0 4-0 2-0 2-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#20 Johnson St. bieberfever 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#12 Lasell carlbuzz 0-0 3-1 1-0 2-1 1-0 - L1 0 0
#21 Husson bigtexhawk 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - L1 0 0
#6 Castleton St. rdb03161987 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 1-1 - W3 0 0
 
 
 
 
 
South Standings
 
School Coach Conf.
W-L
Overall
W-L
Home
W-L
Road
W-L
Top 25
W-L
Last 10 STRK RPI SOS
Maine Maritime Academy jazzcog 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#13 Mount Ida mizzou77 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
#1 Thomas kujayhawk 0-0 4-0 0-0 4-0 0-0 - W4 0 0
Salem St. jodester22 0-0 3-0 1-0 2-0 0-0 - W3 0 0
Maine, Presque Isle dacj501 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - W3 0 0
Maine, Farmington teamkf 0-0 3-1 0-0 3-1 0-0 - W2 0 0
as a buddy of mine likes to say..... That's some sweet sugar right there.
Just rub my nose in it why don't you.
1/22/2012 12:35 AM (edited)
Salem State Vikings Season 54 Outlook

Bigs:

Salem State finally has some experience upfront. Jodester22 is hoping the growing pains of the past two seasons lead to more productivity this season. As a whole, the unit lacks speed and athleticism and the defense is not great. However, they should be able to compete on the boards and in the post.  Sr. Jerald Moore, who started 11 games last season, should be the full-time starter this season. While he hasn’t been much of an offensive threat, look for that to improve some this season. He is also very solid on the boards.  Jr. Frederick Marks returns at power forward. Marks is a strong post presence and has an improving perimeter game. His rebounding could be better, but look for him to make more of an impact offensively this season.  Jr. Michael Buchberger and So. Richard Ince will be the top back-ups. Both have some limitations, but are solid on the boards. They’ve also shown flashes of being effective offensively, at times.  Fr. Michael Smith provides depth this season, but has the potential to be a good player down the road.

Wings:

Sr. Lawrence Godfrey and Jr. Kenneth Dunbar bring similar skill sets to the table. Neither one will blow you away in any area, but are solid across the board. While Dunbar has started since setting foot on campus, Godfrey’s been a key player off the bunch for Salem. His shot selection improved last season and Jodester22 expects him to lead the second unit as a senior. The steady Dunbar can make plays in the post and continues to improve his perimeter game.

Guards:

Salem State finally has some respectable perimeter shooters. After struggling from behind the arc for two seasons, the hope is that So. Donald Sydnor, Fr. Philip Mills and Sr. Willie Lakowski  can knock down some big shots for the Vikings. Expectations were high for Sydnor last season, but he struggled adjusting to the college game. Jodester22 expects significant improvement this season. Mills will back-up Sydnor. Though, just a freshman, Mills is already one of the conference’s best shooters. Lakowski is a veteran that will provide depth if the youngsters struggle.  Jr. Robert Chaney retruns to run the point. While lacking a perimeter game, Chaney uses his speed to create opportunities for himself and his teammates. Despite being only an adequate ball-handler and passer, Chaney was Salem’s most productive player last season.  Jr. John Burmeister is an adequate back-up, but needs to take better care of the ball.

Final Analysis:

It’s been a tough two seasons in Salem, but things are looking up. There is finally adequate experience and depth. Salem State should benefit from a light non-conference schedule, but will likely take some lumps in conference play. While the talent level has improved, the team’s overall lack of speed and athleticism will limit them throughout the season. That being said, there is reason for optimism in Salem, as the Vikings look to improve upon last year’s 9-win season.
1/22/2012 1:55 PM
I wanted to commend everyone on their writeups. Fun to read. Everyone pester kujay to do a conference wide something before the real season begins!!
1/22/2012 7:03 PM
No mention of the Suffolk team that beat your Mt. Ida squad in the NT?
1/23/2012 9:50 AM
Posted by dacj501 on 1/22/2012 1:55:00 PM (view original):
I wanted to commend everyone on their writeups. Fun to read. Everyone pester kujay to do a conference wide something before the real season begins!!
I second this! Everyone did really nice breakdowns of their teams. Lot of fun reading everyone's assessment of their squads.
1/23/2012 11:48 AM
Pre-Conference All North Atlantic Conference Teams (Season 54)

First Team
Pos.  School Name  Yr.  Pos.  A  SPD  REB  DE  BLK  LP  PE  BH  P  WE  ST  DU  FT  TOT
PG Thomas John Bradley Sr. PG 54 100 2 52 4 55 33 76 86 62 74 80 B 678
SG Becker Clyde Hasson Sr. SG 64 73 10 64 2 31 94 68 56 80 86 40 C+ 668
SF Husson Anthony Foster Sr. PF 64 54 73 45 57 68 74 62 17 72 88 95 C+ 769
PF Mount Ida Tim King Sr. C 69 32 78 89 78 86 22 18 7 73 79 41 D+ 672
C Thomas Bryan Vaden Jr. C 73 11 98 66 82 76 10 6 16 78 95 57 C 668


Second Team
Pos.  School Name  Yr.  Pos.  A  SPD  REB  DE  BLK  LP  PE  BH  P  WE  ST  DU  FT  TOT
PG Castleton State Anthony Grissett Sr. SG 73 72 9 83 8 21 68 58 61 49 66 21 B- 589
SG Becker Erik Sullivan Sr. SG 39 68 1 40 15 59 79 78 74 56 86 35 C- 630
SF Mount Ida John Mertens Sr. SF 71 70 55 63 46 49 22 31 59 70 83 47 C+ 666
PF Lasell William McEwan Jr. C 80 18 96 74 79 26 5 15 25 47 81 48 C 594
C Thomas Eric Kerney Sr. C 82 28 89 81 64 51 16 9 11 45 66 98 C+ 640


Third Team
Pos.  School Name  Yr.  Pos.  A  SPD  REB  DE  BLK  LP  PE  BH  P  WE  ST  DU  FT  TOT
PG Lasell Robert Collins Sr. PG 53 90 1 52 3 33 24 82 74 72 88 56 B 628
SG Lasell Todd Knecht Sr. PG 59 83 1 33 7 30 81 73 50 26 61 46 C 550
SF Thomas Lee Brown Jr. SG 72 69 29 73 13 31 70 57 44 42 75 26 B- 601
PF Castleton State Mathew Brown Jr. PF 67 33 71 48 65 75 35 27 31 59 79 6 C 596
C Lasell Michael Nau Jr. C 59 33 91 50 73 77 0 10 15 68 76 25 C- 577

1/24/2012 10:52 AM
jodester - I'm late chiming in on your request but as you note, "the team’s overall lack of speed and athleticism will limit them".   For what it's worth your speed is not a problem.  46 could be better but it is definitely acceptable and I'm currently ranked #1 with a speed rating of 48.  But I do think your athleticism really does need improvement.

I'm not sure this helps but what I do in recruiting is decide what I must have, what I want to have, and what I don't care about.  I actually think that last point is something to keep in mind at all times.  I don't care if my post players have high potential in ball handling and I make an effort to acknowledge that I don't care so that I don't get distracted by the shiny blue color in the potential rating.  It can be really easy to look at the potential and see a future 600+ rated player but if is a post player that has 250 of the points come from work ethic, stamina, and durability and another 100 comes from perimeter, ball handling, and passing .... well that just leaves 250 for the core ratings which means you are going to have a player that either lacks physicality or lacks core kills.

But the really important thing is to determine what you must have and by "must have" I mean getting specific.  If a player doesn't have and doesn't project to have a certain number in a category, you don't recruit him.  Period.  I've become more and more rigid about this; that might be a luxury that I have with my prestige.  For you there still might need to be some trade offs but I'd try to avoid going down that path.  I've made trade offs in the past and I have regretted it just about every single time.  You might say that every single one of your guards has to have 50 speed (they do) and that every one of your post players has 30 athleticism (they don't) and that every player needs to have a defensive rating of at least 35 (nope).  Those are just some arbitrary numbers and you can adjust accordingly.  Here are most, but not all, of the guidelines that I follow for my team that has A+ prestige.  I'd lower these requirements if had a C- team.  Note that I'm making rules based not just on numerical values but on roster composition as well.

Everybody: Work ethic above 25

Point guard -- must have one on the roster at all times that has at least two seasons experience (so for example John Bradley is my senior point guard so if I didn't have a replacement in the pipeline I needed to recruit one this season so I don't go into recruiting next season with a bare cupboard), 40 athleticism, 55 speed, 40 defense, 60 ball handling, 65 passing

Shooting guard -- must have one on the roster at all times, 40 athleticism, 55 speed, 40 defense, 80 perimeter

Combo guards -- 40 athleticism, 55 speed, 40 defense, 50 ball handling, 50 passing (I avoid these players in general but sometimes you do need to fill depth charts)

Small forward -- recruit 1 (and only 1) every other season, 35 work ethic, 40 athleticism, 40 speed, 40 rebounding, 40 defense, 30 ball handling, 30 passing

Post players (I make no distinction between PF & C for recruiting) -- 50 athleticism, 70 rebounding, 45 defense, 45 shot blocking


If I follow these guidelines, I should end up with a team every season that is strong in defense and rebounding and hopefully doesn't turnover the ball too often.  I don't do a whole lot to encourage scoring on my team and that has come back to burn me a bit.  But less than you might suspect and every now and then my team has enough athleticism and speed to somewhat make up for the lack of scoring at the free throw line.  Stamina doesn't show up on my team at all because I play zone defense, if I was running press I would have minimum requirements.  Depending on the team you want to have, your numbers could differ from mine quite a bit.

As it applies to you, I think it probably makes you think long and hard about a player like Donald Sydnor.  He's going to be able to score for you.  He also can't play defense too well and maybe (I honestly don't know) he's going to give up just as many points as he scores.  That poor athleticism is going to make him turnover prone and along with the defensive rating is going to cause him to foul.  I typed that last sentence before seeing that he's fouling at a very high rate, so much that he might not even be on the court when you need him.  Maybe your requirement for SG is 90+ PER rating and nothing else.   If so, Sydnor fits the bill.  But if you have additional requirements, you maybe "can't" recruit him because, for example, he doesn't meet your minimum defensive requirement.

Using some of these minimum rules, I'd probably avoid signing Burmeister for reasons of ATH and DEF,  maybe Sydnor for the same reasons - he's a test case although personally I wouldn't sign him, and probably also Marks and Smith for those same reasons.  I might not have signed Mills because of his 19 work ethic, although if you plan on playing him a bunch over 4 years that probably just squeaks into acceptable territory.  Mills also has some pretty awesome starting categories so he falls into that range of trade offs that I was talking about.  You'll take a player with that poor work ethic because the speed is already at 50, the perimeter shooting is 80 and the ball handling is 60.

If one (or more) of those guys above doesn't meet your requirements, you don't sign them and if you can't find a player that does that means you take a walk on for a season.  It really is better to do that because you don't need 12 players and it really isn't fun to be stuck with a player for four seasons that you regret signing.  Sometimes you have to sign a player because otherwise you'd only have three guards but as long as you aren't in one of those situations, go ahead and take a walk on for the season and try again next time with an extra $3,000.

This is already a long post and I haven't mentioned the "want to have" qualities but the key thing with those is to treat them somewhat similar to the categories you don't care about.  The want to have qualities can be tie breakers and often weighed even more than that, but you won't sign a player that has amazing want to have qualities at the expense of your cores.  I love guards with high potential in rebounding or in low post (if they are both I'll make the player a small forward).  But I'm skipping over a 40 rebounding guard if he doesn't meet the must have core requirements.  It would be awesome to have a team with 5 players that are all dominate rebounders for their positions.  But if they can't dribble, pass, or play defense it won't do a whole lot of good.  At the same time, as long as the must have cores are met, I more than willing to look at that 40 rebounding guard and choose him over another guard that has better cores.  So I can choose the 50 ATH, 60 SPD, 40 REB guard over the 60 ATH, 65 SPD guard but I couldn't if it was 25 ATH, 60 SPD, 40 REB.

Some of this is a bit basic so I apologize if it sounds like I'm talking down to you.  At the same time I have 75 seasons of experience and I'd say I wasn't really following these rules strictly until the past 15 or so.  Up to that point I was looking to recruit the most talent possible and figured I would compose a lineup with the various components.  So every now and then I did have that team that had everybody rebounding and nobody knowing how to pass.  I don't think that works nearly as well as figuring out what you want for each position and the team as a whole and making sure you stick to those rules.
1/24/2012 2:02 PM
Great post, Kujay! Thanks!
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