We will be back!!!!!!!!

Since I’m bored, I took a sneak peak at things for next season by stripping out the seniors from the rosters and see how things look prior to the offseason.

I’ve mentioned this before but the sort is by “talent” which subtracts stamina, work ethic, and durability from the rankings.

School	Returning	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT	TALENT
Johnson State	9	53.8	56.4	40.2	48.8	33.3	27.9	46.2	46.8	46.6	57.8	77.9	47.1	5.7	582.8	400
Castleton State	9	54.2	49.6	40.9	52.8	34.6	44.9	33.9	42.4	39.9	47.3	72.7	55.4	5.3	568.6	393.1
Husson	10	51	51	45.8	45.4	31.9	38.2	38	43.4	36.7	52.6	75.3	68.8	5.2	578.1	381.4
Lasell	9	52.7	51.7	44.9	49.1	35.8	38.4	29.8	40.1	34.8	47.6	77.2	58	4.9	560	377.2
Mount Ida	11	44.6	55.6	37.2	41.1	30.2	41.5	39.2	40.9	41.3	52.9	76	53	5.6	553.5	371.5
Thomas	9	53.4	52.3	35.7	52.8	25.2	25.9	36.2	42.4	38.7	44.2	72.1	59	6.1	538	362.7
UMPI	7	41.6	43	40.3	47.1	33.6	41.9	35.9	36.1	38.6	51.6	76.4	55.7	6	541.7	358
MMA	7	41.9	46.3	35.4	41.3	22.7	34.6	38.6	42.7	37.3	57.1	77.6	59.7	6.3	535.1	340.7
UMF	7	45	43.3	39	45.9	28.7	36.9	26.3	35	31.4	39.3	74.9	60.3	5.3	505.9	331.4
Elms	8	41.6	42.4	39.3	48.3	35.8	28.4	27.9	34.5	32.9	40.9	73.5	43	5.3	488.3	330.9
Salem State	7	49.3	40.1	37.6	45.9	27.4	35.1	28.3	29.7	33.4	52	73.3	59.9	5.6	512	326.9
Becker	6	45.3	38.7	35.2	47.2	32.3	34.7	31.7	26.5	32.5	58	75	42.2	5.8	499.2	324

So taking a quick look at things next season:

Johnson State: Wow.  Not as jaw dropping to me as their success was this season; that completely took me by surprise.  But I wasn’t expecting a roster this good.  I suppose a team that is returning 9 (6 seniors) from an Elite Eight squad should be expected to equal that accomplishment next season but from my vantage point it would seem that unless those players are all maxed out, they should be expected to get to the Final Four if not better.  And after typing that last sentence, I took a peak at this season’s development and it looks like maybe only one player (Ernest Scott) might be maxed.  Good grief, Justin Travis gained 32 points in perimeter last season! The one weakness seems to be that Johnson State is guard heavy.  The overall rebounding number is actually respectable and with the ATH/SPD combo I suspect will be ok.  But averaging a low post rating of 28 is going to make it hard to keep teams honest.  I’ll be interested to see if that’s just a weakness or an Achilles’ heel for them.

Castleton State: Ho hum.  A team that excels across the board.  Castleton has made it to the Elite Eight seven times in the past eight seasons.  I expect that will be eight out of nine after season 52.

Husson: Not surprising given the quality of the coach, but tianyi7886 has Husson ready to challenge again for the NAC North.  If Husson’s players continue to develop, tianyi might have the best team in the NAC by the end of the season.   The rebound rating of 46 is very impressive.  That passing rating is weak and might mean Husson has trouble breaking the press of Castleton and Lasell.

Lasell: We are four deep and don’t yet have a team from the South showing up.   Lasell is listed fourth but they are good enough to win the North.  Lasell looks pretty terrific up front, the backcourt looks a bit more spotty although if you click to the roster you’ll see that while the overall perimeter rating is poor, Lasell have players with ratings of 92 and 81 so they will be fine.  The passing ratings aren’t terrific so Lasell might have similar problems like Husson.  (Or not, neither team has that bad of a rating, it’s just a “weakness” given each roster.)

Mount Ida: Not sure what to make of Ida.  I’m surprised to see them “only” fifth.  At the same time, if I think about it, I’m not sure I’d expect them at this point to crack the Big Four of the North.  For Bob to have a team this young, this high up on the rankings probably indicates that by season’s end this is going to be a very dangerous bunch.  Right now, Ida looks to be stronger in the backcourt than the frontcourt.  Of course, with a team that young that could easily change as the season progresses.  A bit weak on the rebounding front right now but overall a really nice, balanced team.  Bob's going to have to blow it in order to now walk away with the South title.

[GAP: All the teams above are returning 9+ players and I would be disappointed stunned if any of them miss out on the NT.  I also think these are the clear top 5 teams in the NAC next season.]

Thomas: Should be an interesting season for my squad if nothing else.  The ATH/SPD/DEF matches up with anybody in the NAC.  However, nothing else is close to being that impressive and a number of categories look to be real weaknesses.  The rebounding number is less than ideal and that might mean that while the defense is good enough to stop the first chance, it might concede a second or third way too often.  The block shot rating is embarrassing for a team that runs zone.  And, to be honest, I’m pretty amazed that I’ve intentionally recruited a team that has a low post rating below 26.  Scoring is really going to be a challenge next season.  I have Thomas below the cut line for automatic NT bid, but in reality I’ll be pretty surprised if I miss out.  That said, I scheduled a non-conference slate that is challenging enough that if I only go 6-4, I don’t think I’m a complete shoe-in for the NT like the other five are.  The fact that Thomas is in a category of its own is more about how good the Big Five are than it is about Thomas.

[GAP: All the teams below are losing 4+ players and are going to take some beatings in the North Atlantic.  For most, making the NT will depend on how successful the non-conference slate is.  Some of these teams will make the postseason and I predict at least one makes the NT, I'm just not should who it is.]

UMPI: Looks to be the favorite for the #7 spot, although the backcourt is losing a ton due to graduation.  What’s left won’t be a strength, but also should be passable.  The frontcourt is still quite good and as long as UMPI takes care of business in the non-conference portion I expect them to be in the NT despite missing out this past season.   Oops.  Took a look at the non-conference slate.  UMPI has some really hard games that I don’t expect them to win.  They won’t hurt the RPI but might make getting to magic win #14 all the more difficult.  Definitely good enough for the postseason one way or another.

MMA:  I said UMPI is favorite for #7 but MMA claiming the spot seems quite possible.  MMA has a nice non-conference slate so even if I would at this point predict UMPI to have a better NAC record, I like MMA’s chances to make a return to the NT.  Don’t think MMA is going to win a ton of games in the NAC after losing 5 to graduation, but there is enough remaining talent to get to the postseason at minimum.

UMF: Not sure what to make of Coach Floyd’s bunch.  I keep looking at the roster and see potential wins and then the games get simmed and the wins just aren’t there to be had.  I haven’t bothered mentioning it thus far, but UMF’s poor work ethic might be worth noting.  UMF is only returning 7 and they are a bit lazy.  So while UMF has a nice ATH/SPD/DEF foundation, I’m not sure how effectively they will be able to utilize it if they can’t develop the IQ and the skills are also slow to develop.  I’ve given up making predictions for UMF other than suggesting that Coach Floyd gets himself in trouble yet again with the Farmington administration due to yet another one of his crazy capers.

Elms: The wildcard in the NAC???  I said this before and I’ll probably say it again, but Tyber taking a team as young as Elms was last season into a conference as stacked at the NAC was and coming out with 6 wins was pretty amazing.   Losing three seniors, they don’t look much better on paper.   But after the coaching job that Tyber pulled off last season, I’m prepared for another mini-miracle.  Right now, UMF and Elms look to be almost carbon copies of one another but given that Elms has to go against the NAC North, I’d say that UMF is looking much better in terms of making it to the postseason.

Salem State: Needs a coach first and foremost.  The athleticism is awfully impressive for a team this low on the rankings but it might not matter all that much if they can’t hold onto the ball.  Salem State essentially looks to have one guard right now; hopefully the other two on the roster have potential that just hasn’t yet been developed.  A quick look suggests that *might* be the case.  Both Michael Ainsworth and Willie Lakowski had development last season so hopefully it continues.  It’s going to be a long season most likely either way, but it will be very rough if Salem State can’t develop another couple of guards.

Becker: Last, and probably least.  Loses 6 seniors and returns 1 sophomore and 5 freshman.  Winning with a roster that young would be a challenge for anybody.   Winning with a roster that young in a conference this good and in a division as good at the North … I’m not seeing it.  Hopefully, nz00 can rebuild with a nice recruiting class and reload for a similar three year run to what we witnessed.  Taking the C- team to A is quite the accomplishment; hopefully nz00 avoids the return back to C-.

Using the values of returning players above, I have the following average values and overall team value from my ratings system: 


School                  Average                Total
Johnson State    48.925                  440.325
Lasell                   47.17                    424.53
Husson                46.646                 466.46
Thomas               45.95                    413.55
Castleton State  45.534                  409.806
Mount Ida            44.795                  492.745
UMPI                    42.176                  295.232
UMF                     41.195                  288.365
MMA                     41.079                  287.553
Salem State       40.849                  285.943
Elms                   40.732                   325.856
Becker                39.826                   238.956

Johnson State has the best players in terms of quality, but only return 9, while Mount Ida returns 11 with the highest team total. Of course, IQ is not factored into this nor are the systems each team uses. FT grade, WE, Dur are not included as parts of the ratings system. 

Some reference points for my system. Carlton this season has an average of 48.88 for his whole team. The highest team average I have ever gotten was 51.81. Generally, a team with an average about 50 is pretty much a super elite team and should be a lock for final 4, if not an NC. 

The Becker goal for this recruiting season will be as follows:

Recruit 6 freshmen, and then swap the lone Junior with a Soph transfer. This will set us up to have two consecutive seasons of 100% roll-over funds. This will help us offset the impending drop in prestige over the next two seasons while the 12 Fr/So grow. When it comes time to replace the 4 seniors in 3 seasons we should be sitting on $10k (rollover) + $12k (Schollies). $22k for 4 spots will help us offset the C prestige we'll be at.

We will definitely be switching defense to zone, and sprinkle in a little half court press from time to time.

We are looking forward to the challenges of rebuilding the team with what looks to be a good group of returnees: 4 sophomores and 1 red-shirt freshman. One of the soph centers will be red-shirted, which will create somewhat of a super senior class in four years of 8 seniors.

ixolabrat -- Personally, I'd probably be doing something different than what you are doing.  That said, I really like that you have a plan.  I think that often is lacking.

1. I'm pretty sure you can't create a super class of 8 seniors.  I think you run into problems with the hardcoded rule that prevents classes that big by human coaches.  Don't think you can go bigger than 6.

2. If I were in your shoes, I'd go for the opposite.  I would be trying to balance your classes so that you can have a more consistent winner.  Setting yourself up for 100% roll-over is fun but honestly this probably is the worst conference for that.  In a conference where you are the only human, I like your strategy.  Just not in the North Atlantic.   We have several coaches that make the NT each season and most of them are good for Sweet 16 showings, if not better.  I would expect an extra $4,000 each season and in all honesty, you're likely going to get more than that.  If you had two straight seasons of no open spots, you're probably going to have a recruiting budget of at least $30,000 and probably $35,000+.  I'm not sure what exactly you accomplish with that much money.  You can scout the entire country if you want and you'll win any battle, but if I had to guess you end up "wasting" half of that budget.  At D3, I'd say other than it being a really cool thing, having $35,000 isn't much different than having $20,000 and you'd be better off trying to create a more consistent winner that ends up with a better prestige going into recruiting that probably is more valuable than an extra $10,000+ would be.

Yeah I misread, i thought the RS/Fr would still count as a Soph.

I've got balanced squads all over the place. Going to try this approach here.
My prestige is going to be dropping either way I go, as this team isn't going to win much this season, and maybe slightly next. I'd rather going into my 3rd season with $35k and C Prestige, than $20k and C Prestige. I think I'll be able to pull in a better class 3 years from now at which that time I will start the balancing out.

You are probably right, but what the heck. It's taken me 10 years to get into the NT in the ODAC(Tark) because I can't recruit against the A's with my C ... I'm hoping I can rebuild quicker with ,my new plan. Only time will tell!

Henry

SF | 6'5" | 197 lbs. | 2.9 GPA
All Saints Episcopal HS | Tyler, TX

SF

398

• Ratings
• Recruit
• History
• Future Stars Notes

Preferences Proximity Childhood Favorite No preference Duke Potential   Current Rating Potential     Current Rating Potential Athleticism 42 High   Perimeter 10 High Speed 32 High   Ball Handling 17 High Rebounding 46 Average   Passing 10 High Defense 44 High   Stamina 69 Average Shot Blocking 39 Low   Durability 29 High Low-post 21 High   FT Shooting   High

MMA season 52 recruiting class:
Shawn Bogard. C 421 7’ 262 lbs.   The only one of my top 5 I was able to land. (Always wanted a 7-footer!) Nickname: Boo ("joint" was vetoed by his moms, & me!)

Athleticism   32      High                    Perimeter    11      High

Speed                  16      High            Ball Handling         10      High

Rebounding 74      Average              Passing       10      Average

Defense      21      High                    Stamina      72      Low

Shot Blocking        59      High           Durability    31      Low

Low-post     43      Average              FT Shooting          High

Kermit McClinsey. C 431| 6'8" | 238 First of my second tier to sign (Bogard was my 4th signee) (obviously, "Frog")

Athleticism   32      Low                     Perimeter    12      High

Speed                  14      Average      Ball Handling         12      Average

Rebounding 66      Average              Passing       24      High

Defense      25      High                    Stamina      56      High

Shot Blocking        47      Low            Durability    45      High

Low-post     50      Low                     FT Shooting          Average    

Adam Rentas   SG 448 6'0" | 188  Second in my second tier to sign. "Ant".  According to my AD, has a "checkered past," but that didn't show up in my searches. 

Athleticism   24      Low                     Perimeter    47      Low

Speed                  45      High            Ball Handling         42      High

Rebounding 21      High                    Passing       48      Low

Defense      33      Low                     Stamina      71      Average

Shot Blocking        9       Low            Durability    59      High

Low-post     15      High                    FT Shooting          High

  
Kevin Winters. PF 408 6’8” 231 A "back-up" signee.  Was called "Snow" in high school.

Athleticism   22      Average                      Perimeter    6       Low

Speed         12               High                    Ball Handling         12      High

Rebounding 51      Low                              Passing       14      Low

Defense      24      Low                              Stamina      54      High

Shot Blocking        41      Average              Durability    56      High

Low-post     47      High                                                 FT Shooting          High

Gilbert Saville PG 377 6'1" | 199 lbs.  My back-up back-up; he contacted me a little before signings began, I phoned him & that put MMA on his (one-school) list. He went by "Cadillac" in HS. We'll see.

Athleticism   20      High                    Perimeter    11      High

Speed                  51      High            Ball Handling         37      High

Rebounding 11      Low                     Passing       29      Low

Defense      11      Average              Stamina      66      High

Shot Blocking        7       Low            Durability    55      Average

Low-post     36      Low                                      FT Shooting          High      

ixo, (and kujay, and well anyone I guess) - you CAN have an 8 SR class - you can only RECRUIT into a 6 man class (either recruit 6 frosh, or if you have a redshirt fr coming back, recruit 5 frosh) BUT you can do it by redshirting. Not saying the kids will accept it always... start by redshirting a sophomre. If you get lucky and find one that takes it, cool!  Then the next season you've got a class of 7 sophomores. Now, find a junior who is maxxed out. Since its D 3 you might have some laying around. Redshirt the junior (I've never had one take it without WE drop) and then his WE plummets, but who cares, he's maxxed out. Next season you've got 8 juniors. Season after, 8 seniors...

Thomas Recruiting Season 52

Overall Grade: C

I'm self-grading the class as a C but I probably could have gone with a F.  This was the equivalent to taking a multiple choice test and guessing right on most answers.  The final result is ok but the process is terrible.  That's an understatement for how I handled recruiting this go around.

Things started bad for me, I panicked, and then next thing I knew I found myself in a real mess that I'm extremely fortunate to have come out with three recruits that should be ok.  I suppose its better to be lucky than good and I feel really lucky right now.

With three open spots, I approached recruiting like I normally did.  Scout my immediate backyard, a few smaller states elsewhere and find some gems.  My recruit goals were in order: (1) a shooting guard that can shoot, (2) a post player that preferably is good in the low post, and (3) another guard or post (not a SF) and while I wasn't going to be picky preferred a guard so that I'd have 4 guards and 4 posts in my freshman-junior classes.

I found some targets and figured that things would work just fine in recruiting.  Well that plan worked out up until Sim AI started to recruit.  So essentially things feel apart even before I had a chance to begin.  I had a decent enough list of targets.  But a greater than normal amount of my initial targets were also targets for D2 and D3 Sim AI schools and while with NAC cash I probably could taken one or maybe even two if I wanted, with the distance disadvantage I figured it wasn't worth the risk.  That was annoying, but wasn't a huge deal as I had several targets still.  Then human recruiting began.  And after that very first cycle, I found myself with just a handful of targets that I thought were attainable.  D2 schools jumped on a good number of the targets and most of the rest told me that there is nothing that Thomas can offer a community college can't.

After the first cycle I had Charles Portillo, a track star mascarading as a basketball player, considering me but he really didn't fit the profile.  I wanted to see if he possibly could be a guard for me but he lacked the ball handling for me to trust plus my goal was to get a perimeter shooter and he was maxed at 13.  In reality, I knew the perimeter wasn't there from the get go so I shouldn't have bothered but I thought he might fit the #3 category of recruit.  It turns out I wasted $1000 on him that at the time I figured wasn't a big deal but later on was super costly.

That first cycle also let me know that Jeremiah Craig would be available to me and while he wasn't going to the low post scorer I wanted really did look like a D3 stud.  If which if not for being within the 70 mile radius, I'm not sure the 480 player would have been attainable.   I tried to pull him down for cycle #2 which I think was a perfectly reasonable move.  I was successful in pulling Craig down but in that same cycle a local D2 team with A- prestige also jumped in on him.  I actually had a tiny lead at the time but it was a battle I didn't want to fight since it was one I couldn't win if the D2 team was determined.  I threw a small minute promise to Craig to see if the D2 team was really interested but once I discovered they were, I didn't put up a fight for Craig.

So after two cycles, I was in pretty poor shape.  My full list of options was:
-- A guard considering me that really didn't seem to fit with what I wanted this recruiting cycle.
-- A post player considering me that was also considering a D2 A- team.
-- A D2 guard that looked good, but not great, from Arizona that I was hoping would drop down.
-- A D3 guard that looked interesting, but not great, that was high potential in PER, BH, and PAS but had starting ratings in the teens for all three.
-- A D3 guard that looked pretty mediocre overall but did have high potential in ATH, SPD, and PER.

I am pretty sure I've never had fewer options so quickly.  So for the first time in my history at Thomas, I paid the price to scout New York to see if I could find additional targets.

I think all my actions up to this point were defensible.  Going after Portillo ended up being a waste of money but if I had discovered that a couple of his categories were high/high potential, I would have gone ahead and signed him.  With a budget of about $17k, I had scouted a reasonable number of states, put money into two players that seemed worthy of it, and when I didn't have enough options spent additional money to scout a state close to me.  But from the 3rd cycle on, my actions were wreckless at best and embarrassing at worst.

Scouting New York I found two players I really liked.  Or more accurately, what I thought were two good targets.  There were a few players that looked good, but I also wasn't going to go after players considering NAC schools.  Two players in particular looked pretty good for what I wanted to get out of this class: Cory Bjorklund and Bryan Vaden.

Cory Bjorklund looked to be a good guard that could shoot from the perimeter.  Essentially want I wanted most from this recruiting class.  Two teams were already on Bjorklund.  One was a Sim AI team, the other was Bates with A level prestige.  More important in this context was Bates was now coached by nz00.  I really don't understand why a coach would leave the NAC for another D3 program but I suppose nz00 wanted to win this season and Bates will be better than that.  Whatever the motive, I was a bit ticked that he/she left, knew I had twice the recruiting budget and would easily win a battle.  With a ton of cash in hand, I battled for Bjorklund and nz00 didn't put up a fight.  Sim AI was actually harder to knock off.  In retrospect, I probably let the "revenge factor" play a bit too much in my decision to battle and I probably would have been better off scouting another couple of states and finding somebody else.  I do like Bjorklund but that battle proved to be expensive.

Bryan Vaden looked to be a really good post player that could score in the post .... essentially what I wanted for my #2 goal in recruiting.  I pulled down Vaden and I felt like I was in pretty good shape going to bed that first night of recruiting.  I was looking to sign:
1. Cory Bjorklund, who met goal #1.
2. Bryan Vaden, who met goal #2.
3. Not exactly sure but I had some guard options and plenty of money to scout other states.

And then in the morning of day #2, I discover that I'm no longer the only school after Bryan Vaden.  A D2 school is going after him.  I wasn't surprised, but was pretty disappointed because I didn't have any other post options.  And that disappointment turned to anger when I saw that the competition was from almost 2,000 miles away in Texas.  I could have given him the name of a couple of players within 500 miles that were just as good as Vaden, if not better so I was pretty ticked that he went across the country to go after "my guy".  I let the anger get the best of me and I decided that I was going to fight for Vaden, despite the fact that the D2 team had a recruiting budget that approached $35,000.

Anger drove the decision to battle, but there was a tiny bit of logic as well.  The D2 school had recruits considering from New York, North Carolina, Michigan, and Texas.  Those are all pretty expensive states and I was guessing there were other states scouted as well that ate up a few thousand.  The other factor that made me "logically" decide to battle was the fact that I figured another D2 school was likely to see a school 1,000+ miles away and steal the recruit.  So I figured the D2 school would be involved in multiple battles and would be hardpressed to win them, even with the huge budget.

It turns out there was no competition for any of those recruits so I ended up getting myself in one heck of a battle for a D3 school.  Vaden ended up changing his mind 10 times before eventually signing with me.  And I was super-duper lucky to have won the battle since I was completely tapped out after I made my last push but the D2 school reported after the fact that they had and extra $1-2k they could have spent.  I think that gets spent and I lose.

And even though I won, I probably overcommitted in promises.  Vaden will be starting every game for Thomas next season and he'll be playing 25 minutes a game on average.  At one level, that's not as bad as it sounds.  The frontcourt of Thomas is not too talented at this point and Vaden is good enough right now that from a skill perspective, he won't be much worse than the older players.  At the same time, this is a pretty weak Thomas team and I think the impact of the lesser player getting the most minutes might really hurt.  Additionally, I've got two players on the roster with weak work ethic that I signed in part "knowing" that I'd be able to give them minutes as sophomores and juniors to improve the WE.  That ain't happening now.

After signing, the Arizona guard dropped to me and I ended up signing Dennis Myers super cheap by offering him 10 minutes.  That's not a terrible thing but I'd rather not have done that since that pretty much means I'm putting all my eggs in the basket of having Bjorklund redshirt.  If it works out, it just means that my lucky streak continues.  Putting as much money as I did into Vaden meant I had no choice but to offer the minutes in order to sign Myers.

So I came out of recruiting with 3 players but I easily could have ended up with just 1 or 2.  I made an enormous amount of bad decisions and didn't really pay the price for them.  I just hope I learn from this.

So with that quick intro out of the way, here's a look at my recruits ...

Cory Bjorklund
PG | 6'0" | 190 lbs. | 3.2 GPA
Norman Thomas HS | New York, NY
Athleticism - 46 (high)
Speed - 46 (high)
Rebounding - 8 (low)
Defense - 62 (low)
Shot Blocking - 1 (low)
Low-post - 1 (low)
Perimeter - 45 (high)
Ball Handling - 36 (high)
Passing - 14 (high)
Work Ethic - 31
Stamina - 68 (high)
Durability - 38 (high)
FT Shooting - 66.8%

Dennis Myers
SG | 6'1" | 199 lbs. | 2.5 GPA
Glendale HS | Glendale, AZ
Athleticism - 54 (low)
Speed - 65
Rebounding - 14 (low)
Defense - 50
Shot Blocking - 1 (low)
Low-post - 12
Perimeter - 25 (high)
Ball Handling - 43 (high)
Passing - 38 (high)
Work Ethic - 47
Stamina - 67 (low)
Durability - 47 (low)
FT Shooting - 67.1%


Bryan Vaden
C | 6'8" | 236 lbs. | 3.2 GPA
Christopher Columbus HS | Bronx, NY
Athleticism - 45 (high)
Speed - 11 (low)
Rebounding - 64 (high)
Defense - 44 (high)
Shot Blocking - 48 (high)
Low-post - 53 (high)
Perimeter - 9 (low)
Ball Handling - 6 (low)
Passing - 14
Work Ethic - 67
Stamina - 73 (high)
Durability - 37 (high)
FT Shooting - 59.3% (high)


Cory Bjorklund -- I said my #1 target was a guard that can score and I'll be shocked if Bjorklund doesn't become that player.  I don't know if the speed rating is low-high or high-high but both the athleticism and perimeter shooting are high-high.  So worst case scenario should be 75 ATH, 65 SPD, 75 PER.  That will keep defenses honest.  Ball handling is low-high and passing is high-high.  I'm not expecting him to be a PG so if the passing rating allows him to be one that will be a nice little bonus.  No improvement in defense but with it already being 62, I should have myself a nifty defender as well.  The work ethic might be a problem, but I anticipate he'll be playing a lot at Thomas as long as I'm not stupid about handing out promised starts in future classes.  After Columbus Kummer graduates this season I might not have another perimeter scorer so Bjorklund might be jumping into the starting lineup pretty quick.

Dennis Myers -- I consider myself lucky to have signed him given the mess I created.  I also am not at all enthusiastic about him.  Myers seems like the kind of player that will send a normal D3 team into the National Tourney and in the NAC might only be good enough for the Player's Invitational.  It's been a long, long time since I signed a player with so little projection in growth.  The good thing is that while he won't really improve in ATH, SPD, and DEF (yikes!), all three are already over 50 so he won't be a complete disaster.  Hopefully at least a couple of the guard categories are high-high instead of low-high.  The perimeter rating needs to be high-high if he's going to be a scoring threat.  The ball handling and passing can be low-high and I think I can get away with it.  He will be pretty mediocre if they are low-high but since both are starting around 40, they should get to 60 and that's not too bad.  If I had to guess, Myers probably won't start a game in his career and if that's the case I might have better off taking a walkon.  I strongly considered doing that.  This is going to sound weird, and probably indefensible, but I signed Myers in large part simply so that I could redshirt Bjorklund.  Without Myers, I wouldn't have the guard depth to do that.  One last thing to complain about Myers is that he has terrible stamina.  Since he's not likely to start, that isn't nearly as big a deal.

Bryan Vaden -- Not worth what I did to get him, but close.  The low post is just low-high so he won't be the true inside presence I wanted but he's going to be much better than anybody else on the roster.  And all the other high potential categories are high-high.  With 75 athleticism, I'm not sure it's going to matter the the low post is "only" 75.  Vaden should be a real force on the defensive end and given the lack of shotblockers on the current roster, Vaden will be very helpful in that regard.  He shouldn't be starting, much less for 25 minutes a game but he does have good work ethic so hopefully the high potential categories will grow fast.  He's also high potential in stamina which given the need to play him 25 minutes is nice as well.

THOMAS TEAM OUTLOOK SEASON 52

Team Offense: Flex
Team Defense: 2-3 Zone

Likely Starting Lineup, (Season 51 Stats)
PG: John Bradley, So (0 GS, 1.4 pt, 1.9 ast)
SG: Columbus Kummer, Sr (34 GS, 14.4 pt, 3.1 ast, 1.0 stl, 43% FG3)
SF: Dustin Wills, Jr (0 GS, 4.2 pt, 2.5 reb)
PF: Martin Paiz, Jr (34 GS, 8.1 pt, 6.3 reb, 1.1 blk)
C: Bryan Vaden, Fr

1st guard off the bench: Arthur Leininger, Jr (0 GS)
1st post off the bench: Eric Kerney, So (0 GS, 2.4 pt, 52 FG%, 4.7 reb)

Well, it's not like this is a surprise.  The writing has been on the wall for three seasons now that this is going to be down season in Waterville, ME.  This a pretty young Thomas team.  It probably is the least talented squad in 20 seasons.  In the D3 world, Thomas is one of the best 64 teams and would make the tourney in just about every conference.  Since the North Atlantic ain't your typical conference, I'm not sure if Thomas will make the cut to 64.

The interesting thing about Thomas (at least to me) is that Thomas is a study in contrasts.  Thomas might end up being a so-so team this season but the individual components aren't.  The speed, athleticism, and defensive ratings are good enough to match with all but the top D3 teams.  A lot of the other categories are worse than your typical Sim AI team.  I suspect the speed and athleticism is going to keep Thomas in most games and will probably allow the Terriers to steal a couple that they don't deserve.  But that's just a guess.  I'd be shocked if this team was near the top or bottom of the NAC but this team is weird enough that I wouldn't totally discount the possibility.

Thomas' strength will be in its starting guards.  They need to work on their stamina and also how to move their feet on defense to avoid fouling because the guards off the bench are Thomas' weakness.  Columbus Kummer is the one really good player on this Thomas team and he's going to be expected to shoulder the scoring burden this season.  Kummer always looked good in workouts but his stats from his freshman and sophomore campaigns left a lot to be desired -- to the point that I was quite nervous plugging him the starting lineup last season.  He handled the extra minutes tremendously well and went from being a terrible shooter to a very good one almost overnight.  As a senior, Kummer is just about a finished product as only his ball handling has room to grow.  Joining him in the starting lineup will be a very young John Bradley who will be asked to be the starting point guard.  Bradley hopefully will be up to the task.  He has terrific speed and good ball handling and passing.  The athleticism is a weakness, however, and as a true sophomore he'll have IQ problems as well.  Bradley should grow into the position as the season progresses.  He's limited in his perimeter shooting just like he was the day he arrived on campus but he has high potential in athleticism, defense, low post, and passing and the other guard categories still have room for growth.  He's got a chance of being a really nice player.  That includes scoring if the low post develops but for right now he's a pass first, pass second, pass third type of guard.  Once Bradley and Kummer need a breather things get ugly.  Arthur Leininger will be first off the bench primarily due to his familiarity with the offense as a Junior.  Leininger is a solid defensive player but is very challenged on the offensive end.  The report from the assistant is he still has room for growth in ATH/SPD/DEF and has big upside in PER/BH/PAS.  Once he maxes out when he's playing ball in Europe, Leninger will probably be a good player.  With the poor work ethic, he's never going to fill his potential at Thomas.  In fact, Leninger is currently the worst shooter in Thomas history with a FG% of 33.3 and FG3% of 7.7.  Even if Leninger does improve, he might be terrible.  Filling out the backcourt will be the true freshman Dennis Myers as well as Craig Kelley in a somewhat unconvential move.  Kelley considers himself a power forward, but Thomas prefers to have him play as a guard.  As a JUCO transfer that was signed only because Thomas wanted Columbus Kummer to have a roommate in the same academic class, Kelley is a decent role player but nothing more than that.  Kelly's passing skills seem to be tapped out but he has modest room for growth in everything else.

Small forward might define Thomas' season.  For better or worse.  In his fourth season, Dustin Wills finally takes the stage.  Wills came to campus as a super athlete that had no basketball skills but some projection for growth.  Four seasons later, he doesn't have much projection and he still doesn't really have basketball skills.  Wills athleticism is maxed at 84 just as it was when he came to campus.  He does have big upside in speed so the ATH/SPD combo might mean he still be can be a nifty player.  Every other category is of average potential.  Wills can still get better and that might be enough for a player as athletic as he is.  And if not, Thomas is going to be a bit worse than I'm projecting.  At worst, Wills is an excellent shutdown defender but he may fit a general pattern of guys on the roster that don't know how to score.  Backing him up will be Lee Brown.  The redshirt freshman really looks to be the future of the Thomas program.  Brown is already a pretty good player and he still has huge potential in speed, rebounding, defense, low post, ball handling, and passing.  Brown's work ethic is a problem so he might not be able to fully develop that potential.  Brown should get about 15 minutes a game this season and that might just be enough to get him to try a bit harder at practice.

The frontcourt will be ok on the defensive end but can't rebound and won't be able to score on the offensive end.  So in other words, a potential problem spot.  The potential is there for this frontcourt to be good in two seasons but in season 52 it might not be pretty.  Martin Paiz will be a starter for the second consecutive season.  Paiz was forced into the lineup last season but excelled -- to the point that he unexpectedly received consideration for being a preason All-American.  For a post player that can't score, can't block shots, and is only an above average rebounder that's shockingly high praise.  Paiz still can become better.  His defense is maxed out but he's can improve in everything else.  In fact, Paiz has outstanding potential in both perimeter shooting and passing but it remains to be seen if he's allowed to develop those skills.  Joining Paiz as a starter will be Bryan Vaden.  Vaden was controversial before he even arrived on campus, being promised a start despite showing little in his high school film to suggest he is ready for the task.  Coaches talk about his potential whenever they get a chance, but for now he's not good enough to be starting in D3, much less in the North Atlantic.  Part of the reason why Vaden is starting is that none of the other post options for Thomas are all that great.  Eric Kerney will be the first option off the bench.  Every part of Kerney's game is ready for the starting lineup except for his scoring.  And his scoring is a tremendous weakness.  There is terrific potential for growth in his low post game so by his Senior year he might be a threat.  But he won't in his Sophomore campaign.  In addition to the large room for growth in low post, Kerney also seems to have big upside in athleticism, rebounding, defense, perimeter shooting, and passing.  Nothing in Kerney's game is yet maxed out.  Next off the bench will be Clinton Schweiger.  Schweiger is essentially a poor man's Kerney.  Both now and in the future.  Schweiger has large room for growth in rebounding and in the low post but that's it.  Only his athleticism is limited but he doesn't seem to have the talent to ever be anything but a role player.

THOMAS NON-CONFERENCE SEASON 52
Prediction: 4-6
RPI: 46    

This might not have been might best job of scheduling ... unless I go 9-1 and and look like a genius.

Predicted Wins: Norwich, Muskingum
Predicted Losses: Widener, Hendrix, Webster, West Connecticut State, Connecticut
Toss Up: Clarkson, St. John Fisher, DePauw

Honestly, I'm not even sure I'd predict the two wins.  I think I'll be ok in non-conference play but I seem to have an awful lot of toss up matches.  I currently am confident that I'll hold my own and I think I'll beat the official prediction.  That said, I went with 4-6 because I do think I am playing 5 teams that on paper look better and I shouldn't go 3-3 in toss up games.

Kind of kicking myself for scheduling this hard.  It's been a long time since I got burned for putting Thomas out on a limb but this has a chance of doing that.  I am not expecting it but unlike most seasons where there is no chance of going 2-8 (or worse), it is a possibility this time.  Both because Thomas isn't all that great and also because the teams I scheduled are pretty good and/or are loaded with upperclassmen.

Mentioned this before but I get a pass for scheduling Connecticut.  They are too good for a Thomas squad that will be having a down season but this will be the 26th consecutive season and an automatic slot on my non-conference slate.

I got a good feeling as thing start tonight but if thing start heading South be prepared for a whining fit.

Pre-Season All North Atlantic Conference Teams (Season 52)

First Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Johnson State	Patrick Duke	Sr.	PG	57	86	1	66	6	1	65	95	90	78	88	34	C+	667
SG	Johnson State	Fletcher McCrosky	Sr.	SG	85	45	36	85	3	62	59	36	48	60	78	54	C+	651
SF	Johnson State	Justin Travis	Sr.	SF	61	74	51	49	31	20	90	48	44	63	84	34	C-	649
PF	Castleton State	Robert Galloway	Sr.	PF	51	33	77	67	65	98	21	51	11	67	75	99	C	715
C	Lasell	Pat Phillips	Sr.	C	68	42	94	50	51	92	10	24	34	60	84	70	C	679

Second Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Castleton State	Edward Zaltz	Sr.	SG	69	79	10	74	23	1	47	77	71	48	78	94	A-	671
SG	Husson	Edward Orbison	Jr.	SG	67	80	26	55	3	28	62	60	54	59	79	41	B-	614
SF	UMPI	Lloyd Youngblood	Jr.	PF	54	40	71	73	59	59	31	22	25	28	73	26	C	561
PF	Castleton State	Gerard Hostetter	Sr.	C	71	39	71	63	46	72	34	29	34	45	73	64	D	641
C	Lasell	Bill Theis	Sr.	C	63	20	86	50	78	82	2	14	10	30	66	88	C-	589

Third Team

Pos.	School	Name	Yr.	Pos.	A	SPD	REB	DE	BLK	LP	PE	BH	P	WE	ST	DU	FT	TOT
PG	Johnson State	Manuel Wesley	Sr.	PG	59	92	8	59	18	13	66	61	62	45	81	14	B-	578
SG	Thomas	Columbus Kummer	Sr.	PG	46	94	1	32	2	2	86	84	62	70	73	49	B	601
SF	Johnson State	Ernest Scott	Sr.	PF	66	40	65	44	67	34	35	39	36	73	64	30	B	593
PF	Mount Ida	Manuel Phipps	Sr.	C	26	36	99	27	82	99	1	14	31	75	91	49	C+	630
C	Husson	Charles Richardson	Jr.	C	62	30	98	46	65	66	15	17	8	74	81	95	C+	657