5/17/2012 2:23 AM

That's a rap... Congrats to James on a PIT Title

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#8 Marshall girt25 15-1 30-2 13-0 12-1 6-1 9-1 L1 2 5
UAB options 11-5 22-7 6-2 15-3 2-4 5-5 L2 21 40
#22 Central Florida dacj501 10-6 22-8 5-3 15-3 2-5 5-5 L2 19 19
Memphis oldwarrior 9-7 19-10 7-3 11-5 3-4 5-5 L2 27 11
E. Carolina zags27 9-7 18-11 6-4 11-5 3-6 7-3 L2 30 12
S. Mississippi Weena 1-15 9-19 3-10 5-8 0-8 1-9 L1 127 22

 
 
 
 
 
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#20 UTEP aejones 12-4 24-6 9-3 13-1 2-3 6-4 L2 17 23
Houston jamespastine 7-9 20-12 10-4 8-7 1-4 8-2 W5 40 25
Tulsa tianyi7886 7-9 10-17 5-3 5-13 1-4 3-7 L3 112 57
Tulane antonsirius 6-10 17-13 12-4 5-8 0-4 4-6 L1 67 44
SMU mr53 6-10 10-17 2-8 8-8 0-5 5-5 L2 153 101
Rice shqipta 3-13 9-18 2-9 7-8 0-7 1-9 L4 105 26
5/17/2012 4:16 AM
Dan, I agree that I don't think that's what zags was saying per se - just that some people (and I sort of did too I guess) might read it that way.

Maybe I'm extremely unlucky, maybe I'm just no better than a upper 3rd tier coach - I haven't been at UCF very long, and we all haven't been at this terribly long - but my Alabama experience seems to indicate this is it for me. 17 seasons of recruiting seems like enough to see the writing on the wall. I try to find the diamonds in the rough that the bigger schools won't take. I try to land the biggest studs I can find. Occasionally hell gets chilly and we get one or two. Then they go EE after their soph season...it takes all my powers to find one stud every 2 or 3 seasons, and invariably they leave and it takes 3 yrs to get another. How the hell am I supposed to make that work? EEs are part of the game, I get it, like I said, this is my failing I suppose. But also as I said, if I can't manage to get over this hump with SEC cash I doubt it's gonna happen here. I tell you what though - I'm gonna have to figure it out soon though or I think I'll just let D I go to hell and go back to D2 where I occasionally seem to know what I'm doing. All the big time BCS schools that ***** about EEs **** me off - they have A and A+ prestige. They lose the EEs and then they have $100000 to recruit with and an A+ prestige. They just take whatever they want, and 90% of the time they go unchallenged at probably sign the kids for $3000, so they can use the bulk of it if/when a similar top school does actually take them on. Maybe I'm wrong (probably, I usually am) - and my tune sure would be different if I was one of the A+ schools lording over everyone else, but until I get to that point (yeah, right) I just don't know what to do. I actually think I'm a pretty good recruiter too...

Some kids I recruit on the cheap to be backups. I mean its hard enough to find a couple studs, I'm sure as hell not gonna find 9 or 10 of them (of course since seble nerfed fatigue onset and effects I guess I really only need 8 studs and 4 walkons to win right?) I hate that btw - A team with 8 800 players should still get tired and suffer fatigue effects when playing a solid team of 12 720 rated players, especially when faced with an uptempo...not in my experience though...
5/17/2012 8:57 AM
if this sim is trying to emulate real life, I'd take a team of 7 800+ rated players over a team that goes 12 deep full of 700+ rated guys.
it's HD that seemingly over emphasizes the effect of fatigue.

Most of the top teams only have 7 or 8 players seeing double digit minutes.  Kentucky won the title with basically a 6 man rotation with their 7th guy (Wiltjer) only averaging 6 minutes per game, in games decided by 10 or fewer points. 
5/17/2012 4:43 PM (edited)
My post was just to stir up some conversation from you guys and see where everyone thought we were.
I personally think, as Dan mentioned, we actually had a couple bad breaks and really are on the brink of becoming one of the top conferences in Rupp. I do agree however, we need to ramp it up a little in recruiting and work on the quality and not quantity of our recruits.
GL this season guys, it may be one of our best yet, since alot of us lose very little.
C-Fla is however going to have several openings... and a pretty good size bankroll. I'd say let the teams in Florida know you're there,
5/17/2012 11:25 AM
Seble's announcement that they will be amending prestige to more highly weigh on-court performance and lessen the impact of baseline will no doubt help us.

dac, not sure what you mean by "nerfed" fatigue ... that's not accurate. My suggestion on the backups -- sign a defensive stud who is offensively challenged rather than someone who is just kind of OK everywhere. Most of your thoughts re: recruiting in your last post seem overblown and overexaggerated to me.

You can become one of those A+ schools. Anyone can.
5/17/2012 1:22 PM
what's not accurate?

New engine came out 5/12/10. On 8/28/10 changelog shows a shift to a non linear effects of fatigue change. 2/3/11 changelog shows a "small reduction to fatigue rate". Maybe you didn't notice or you approve of the changes. I wasn't a fan.
5/17/2012 4:01 PM
I'm saying that the change to fatigue was not nearly as game-changing as you're suggesting.
5/17/2012 4:13 PM
I noticed a change in results of my teams. I suppose could be related to other things, but coincided with those changes.
5/17/2012 9:27 PM
I challenge your timeline. Your big success in Rupp at Shaw came after that change.

And why would it particularly impact you more significantly than others?

We've talked previously about strategy changes, game changes, etc. and how they may have effected you ... I'm thinking that you're pointing the finger at a relatively minor fatigue change that is not the culprit.
5/18/2012 7:26 AM
its entirely possible Dan... my memory is ****. I do know that when the fatigue changes came the coach at Arkansas in my Tark world always ran with 7 or 8 and 4 or 5 walkons. Before the changes I beat him 4 straight times running uptempo with my 12 man rotations. PBP showed him suffering lots of reds for fatigue, and his guys fouled me more and we took advantage. After the changes I haven't beat him since either at Arky or after he moved to Indiana and did the same thing there. I didn't really change the way I build a team or anything, and I ran uptempo at him again after. His guys never got worse than orange. Maybe its more realistic - I know  a lot of schools IRL only go 7 deep (hell, I'm a Syracuse fan, of course i know that...) but this isn't RL as is so often pointed out. When you can't land studs you try to build a team of pieces. I think that a team of high IQ seniors who maybe aren't all 99 across the board ought to be able to push a team of 7 all stars into fatigue issues and grab a win. I know sample size is small and yadda yadda, and I guess I have no real idea how things really work or I'd be better at this game overall, but that's my perception and my rationale.

My D 2 Rupp success was more about the ability to score without any offensive abilities. That didn't get affected by the fatigue nerf - it got beaten down when FG% were dropped by 3% across the board. My guys that were just effective enough before became offensive liabilities. Unfortunately my teams were full of those players, since they were working for me to that point. I guess leaving Shaw when I did was ok, since I would have probably dropped off due to this like I did at Valdosta St. at the same time.
5/18/2012 2:32 PM
some final numbers season #58
Rank Conference Prestige Record Strength of
Schedule
RPI
1. Conference USA B- 210-140 .5841 .5922
2. Big 12 B+ 224-141 .5896 .5902
3. SEC B+ 212-146 .5854 .5850
4. PAC 10 B 196-156 .5707 .5633
5. Big East B 185-165 .5560 .5430
6. Big Ten B 184-164 .5482 .5422
7. ACC B 180-167 .5474 .5414
8. Horizon C 171-170 .5200 .5138
9. Ivy League C- 172-168 .5085 .5064
10. Big West D+ 173-165 .4975 .5006
11. Big Sky C- 165-175 .5041 .4980
12. MAC D+ 168-167 .4884 .4901
13. Atlantic 10 C 156-182 .4959 .4851
14. Patriot League D+ 163-173 .4807 .4789
15. Big South D 154-183 .4896 .4779
5/18/2012 2:35 PM
  Name Year Pos School A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
1. Michael Downs Sr. PF Central Florida 82 59 72 99 56 96 60 78 76 78 91 90 C+ 937
2. Jess Brown Sr. C E. Carolina 88 49 97 96 94 90 70 36 80 68 76 89 C- 933
3. Joe Eldridge Jr. SG Marshall 95 94 54 97 34 88 98 81 76 83 84 48 C+ 932
4. Arthur Roger Sr. C Memphis 84 61 99 93 98 99 32 58 51 74 82 72 C- 903
5. Gaylord Porter So. SF Marshall 96 70 47 92 51 89 79 84 74 74 75 58 C- 889
6. John Calle Sr. PG Marshall 98 96 29 97 17 46 95 92 95 67 76 76 B 884
7. Ernest Donaldson Sr. SG Memphis 99 73 51 99 39 60 86 63 70 72 95 70 C+ 877
8. Clay Wilson Fr. PF Memphis 93 59 81 91 86 93 55 59 78 64 73 40 C 872
9. Joseph Rathbun So. PF Memphis 90 57 78 95 71 66 67 57 40 82 75 60 C+ 838
10. Jason Junior Sr. PG Houston 68 86 23 75 22 1 100 98 100 85 79 100 A- 837
11. Mark Greenwood Sr. SG Marshall 89 89 39 94 23 48 95 65 65 65 86 77 B 835
12. Tom Merchant Sr. SF Central Florida 97 68 77 97 54 65 49 68 84 67 80 28 C+ 834
13. Timothy Bagwell Sr. PF Central Florida 72 45 89 92 56 88 39 66 66 58 79 76 C+ 826
14. James Kellum Sr. SF Central Florida 67 77 73 71 67 55 66 65 48 84 78 71 B- 822
15. Robert Preston Sr. C Houston 57 48 99 82 99 99 35 34 26 82 93 68 C 822
16. Charles Hannah Sr. PG Memphis 76 87 29 88 17 46 72 89 69 73 96 73 B- 815
17. Earl Dane Jr. SF E. Carolina 69 43 81 57 67 94 61 70 52 65 80 74 B- 813
18. James Corrales So. SG Marshall 86 70 26 93 34 65 95 91 62 49 85 46 C- 802
5/18/2012 2:44 PM (edited)
I think this is most of the relevant stuff I try to save.
  School Players A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
1. Marshall 12 89 67 54 91 50 60 61 60 58 64 80 59 C+ 794
2. Memphis 12 75 59 58 79 52 58 57 56 56 65 78 67 C 786
3. E. Carolina 12 79 57 52 76 50 64 62 52 59 64 77 62 C+ 754
4. Central Florida 12 72 58 55 75 40 59 54 55 52 66 76 64 C+ 759
5. SMU 12 58 61 46 57 40 56 62 55 57 69 79 62 C+ 701
6. UAB 12 66 59 48 66 40 43 57 59 52 62 77 69 B- 724
7. UTEP 12 80 53 45 82 41 45 49 54 50 56 78 65 C+ 699
8. Tulsa 12 72 57 56 67 48 58 49 49 43 50 79 67 C+ 693
9. Tulane 12 72 55 49 80 44 41 53 48 45 62 77 64 C 713
10. S. Mississippi 12 58 56 54 58 45 54 53 47 54 59 80 69 C+ 686
11. Houston 12 58 59 42 64 36 37 55 54 61 68 75 72 C+ 718
12. Rice 12 75 54 46 71 37 46 48 47 54 48 71 67 C+ 683
the Bold are after the 7 W/O's in the conference are removed
6/11/2012 12:50 PM (edited)
To put some of this into perspective, 3-4 seasons ago we ended the season with 9 players over 800 rated. We began the season with no team rated over 700 and ended with 4.
This season we were #1 in conference RPI.
Ended with 8 teams over 700 overall rated.
and had 18 players rated 800 or higher.

There was some whispering going on at seasons end about paper-tigers and inflated rpi's etc due to some crash and burn injuries in the NT.
I think my memory is just too selective and short and I sometimes forget the extremely humble beginnings that were C-USA not that long ago.

All things considered... I think we are alive and well, and just starting to scrape the surface of what we are capable of doing in the next 4-5 seasons.
GIDDYUP!
5/22/2012 9:25 AM
  School Players A SPD REB DE BLK LP PE BH P WE ST DU FT TOT
1. Marshall 9 91 64 54 91 55 64 56 57 56 63 80 58 C 790
2. Memphis 7 73 59 61 76 54 52 59 55 53 62 74 75 C 752
3. E. Carolina 9 82 52 57 78 53 72 56 50 53 65 74 53 B- 746
4. UAB 9 71 58 53 70 46 51 56 60 53 61 77 77 B- 734
5. Tulane 8 72 61 47 87 37 43 64 55 51 61 77 68 C+ 722
6. Central Florida 5 76 60 48 77 36 61 53 47 42 57 70 74 C+ 702
7. UTEP 9 84 52 48 83 42 48 45 48 51 58 78 62 C+ 698
8. Houston 7 66 62 39 69 32 38 57 59 69 60 73 71 C+ 694
9. S. Mississippi 10 56 57 54 60 45 56 55 48 53 58 77 69 B- 688
10. Tulsa 8 78 59 49 74 44 49 49 51 43 48 75 62 C+ 681
11. SMU 8 60 57 45 56 39 48 60 56 55 69 76 56 C+ 677
12. Rice 9 79 54 47 73 41 45 49 51 55 42 69 68 C+ 673
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