Posted by yatzr on 11/1/2011 2:23:00 PM (view original):

Posted by mrfortune3 on 11/1/2011 1:31:00 PM (view original):
not sure if this is what you meant yatzr but here goes.
in Leahy my Pittsburgh St team(this is my top overall vision team, though my Truman St team can see a 626 player but the drop off is larger)
Season 67 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #12
Season 68 18-1(8-1 conference) national champion #1
Season 69 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2 
Season 70 17-1(9-0 conference) CC, final 4 berth #2
Season 71 14-2(8-1 conference) 2nd round of the playoffs #14
Season 72 17-2(9-0 conference) CC, lost national championship #4
Season 73 16-1(9-0 conference) CC, elite 8 berth #2

my vision has gone up every season since season 67(my first year there)
i don't measure vision quite the way you do though. i research the available recruits during the current cycle and take the top 5-10 overall ratings.
i then contrast those top 5-10 after the recruits arrive on campus and next seasons recruits have popped up.
if anyone falls out of the top 5-10 then i know my vision has gone down, if there are new players added then i know that it's gone up.
for instance last season i could see 6 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 596 and the top guy being 606.  this season i can see 10 600 rated players or better with the bottom ten guy being 600 even and the top guy being 610. two of which are considering a DIAA team(Appy St)

This is what most everyone's been doing wrong in regards to checking their vision.  If you look at my screenshot, you'll see the top recruit on the screen has the highest "vision rating" of 264.64 and his total rating is only 504.  Lower on the screen, I can see a guy within my vision because his vision rating is only 247.22, but his total rating is 521.  The total rating has little correlation to the vision rating.  Also, the second custom column in my screenshot is the guess ratings from that time.  You can see that the guess ratings also have little correlation to the vision rating.  Higher vision does not guarantee better recruits.  In general, yes, they will be better, but there are many high vision rated recruits that we all would consider to be very poor recruits.  Without being able to detect those recruits, you will have a hard time quantifying your vision.

If you want to truly know what your vision is and how much it's gone up or down (rather than just knowing that it has gone up or down), this is the way to check it.  Note that you don't HAVE to use my tool to check it.  Just use a spreadsheet with all of the recruits within your vision, use the OL equation and see what your highest vision rated OL is.

my goal in using the top 5-10 overall isn't to compare vision to another team. which is why i stated that i don't measure vision the way you do.
the purpose is for me to see how close i am to having near DIAA vision, which i can discern from the top 5-10(especially if some are being looked at by DIAA schools). it doesn't mean i'll recruit them if they're not the type of quality i desire. granted most times the best recruits for certain positions are in the lower overall end of the spectrum, but if i can see 10 600 guys then more than likely i can see the top tier ones as well.
it's not flawless, but it gives me a better idea of how high my vision is getting.
the more high end rated recruits in the pool the more likely hood that i will see just about everyone that is of desirable ratings for me to recruit.

that's why i check my vision that way.

UPDATE:  Finished last season at 15-2, Won my first Conf Championship in this world, went to 3rd round of playoffs, final WIS ranking of #7.  My vision went up from 209 to 214.  A pretty significant jump I think.

yatzr, here is a partial....  not sure if I still have the data sets from earlie seasons.  I seem to have a lot of "overlap" with in/out of vision players....so there is no CLEAR cutoff.  It looks like its between 208 and 210.

This is DIII, Wilkinson (Istarted playing this game in season 66)

Season	Wins	Losses	CC Game	Con Champ	Playoffs	Prev 3 Seasons	Vision Score
63	1	12
64	4	9
65	8	6	Y
66	8	6	YES			13
67	8	6	YES			20
68	7	6				24
69	7	6				23
70	9	5	YES			22
71	11	4	YES		Rnd 1	23
72	9	5	YES			27	209
73	10	4			Rnd 1	29	209
74	15	2	YES	YES	Rnd 3	30	209

75                                                                                                      34                           214

mrfortune3, what I'm saying is that the guys you think are at the top of your vision, are not necessarily at the top of your vision.  There is no rule that says that a guy with 600 rating requires high vision to see.  Obviously if they only become visible after the season rolls over, then your vision increased and they are high vision recruits, but you have no idea about the 600+ rated guys that were there the whole time.  It's completely possible that your vision could change and you would see no change whatsoever in your top 5-10 recruits overall.  Using an equation that can accurately rank recruits the way WIS ranks recruits will give you a much clearer picture of where your vision is and how close you are to DIAA vision.

harriswb3, it's not uncommon to have overlap of about 2 points, so your 208-210 is normal.  This overlap is caused by inaccuracies in the equation along with any hidden factors that WIS uses in their equation.  As long as the overlap isn't more than a few points, it's still a pretty good guage.  I usually just take the lowest red and the highest black and average them.

Posted by yatzr on 11/2/2011 9:45:00 AM (view original):
mrfortune3, what I'm saying is that the guys you think are at the top of your vision, are not necessarily at the top of your vision.  There is no rule that says that a guy with 600 rating requires high vision to see.  Obviously if they only become visible after the season rolls over, then your vision increased and they are high vision recruits, but you have no idea about the 600+ rated guys that were there the whole time.  It's completely possible that your vision could change and you would see no change whatsoever in your top 5-10 recruits overall.  Using an equation that can accurately rank recruits the way WIS ranks recruits will give you a much clearer picture of where your vision is and how close you are to DIAA vision.

harriswb3, it's not uncommon to have overlap of about 2 points, so your 208-210 is normal.  This overlap is caused by inaccuracies in the equation along with any hidden factors that WIS uses in their equation.  As long as the overlap isn't more than a few points, it's still a pretty good guage.  I usually just take the lowest red and the highest black and average them.

there is no rule for that but as your vision improves you see more 600 rated guys at the Div II level. 
using the OL you propose tells me nothing more than the top 5-10 does because more than likely only 15-20% of those guys would i find recruitable when i'm at a certain vision level.
more importantly rarely do DIAA teams reach down a level to recruit severely lower rated overall player on OL or DL unless they're scouting for STL's.
i have never had the top 5-10 fail to tell me if my vision goes up since i've been using it. it always changes.one way or another.

we'll have to agree to disagree on this premise of vision. you have your system and i have mine. neither is going to change the other's mind about it.

Just throw your wins in the formula: Wins_yr*4 + Wins_yr-1*2 + Wins_yr-2.  It won't tell you who has entered (or left) your vision like yatzr's can, but it is a damn sight easier to estimate whether your vision is improving than anything else that has been discussed in this thread.

Posted by mrfortune3 on 11/2/2011 11:29:00 AM (view original):

Posted by yatzr on 11/2/2011 9:45:00 AM (view original):
mrfortune3, what I'm saying is that the guys you think are at the top of your vision, are not necessarily at the top of your vision.  There is no rule that says that a guy with 600 rating requires high vision to see.  Obviously if they only become visible after the season rolls over, then your vision increased and they are high vision recruits, but you have no idea about the 600+ rated guys that were there the whole time.  It's completely possible that your vision could change and you would see no change whatsoever in your top 5-10 recruits overall.  Using an equation that can accurately rank recruits the way WIS ranks recruits will give you a much clearer picture of where your vision is and how close you are to DIAA vision.

harriswb3, it's not uncommon to have overlap of about 2 points, so your 208-210 is normal.  This overlap is caused by inaccuracies in the equation along with any hidden factors that WIS uses in their equation.  As long as the overlap isn't more than a few points, it's still a pretty good guage.  I usually just take the lowest red and the highest black and average them.

there is no rule for that but as your vision improves you see more 600 rated guys at the Div II level. 
using the OL you propose tells me nothing more than the top 5-10 does because more than likely only 15-20% of those guys would i find recruitable when i'm at a certain vision level.
more importantly rarely do DIAA teams reach down a level to recruit severely lower rated overall player on OL or DL unless they're scouting for STL's.
i have never had the top 5-10 fail to tell me if my vision goes up since i've been using it. it always changes.one way or another.

we'll have to agree to disagree on this premise of vision. you have your system and i have mine. neither is going to change the other's mind about it.

Fair enough.  I have no intention of dissuading anyone from using any system they are comfortable with.  The goal of this thread was basically to say "This is how WIS determines what players fall into your vision.  This equation will show you that this is true, and it will show you exactly where your team stands vision-wise."  It was meant to open some eyes as to the inner workings of vision, because as far as I can tell, nobody else has figured out exactly how WIS determines which players fall into your vision.

One big future thing that could be gained from this:
The relationship between a school's history and their vision rating could be found.  You'd be able to accurately predict what schools can even see the recruit you're interested in.

Posted by mrfortune3 on 11/2/2011 11:29:00 AM (view original):

Posted by yatzr on 11/2/2011 9:45:00 AM (view original):
mrfortune3, what I'm saying is that the guys you think are at the top of your vision, are not necessarily at the top of your vision.  There is no rule that says that a guy with 600 rating requires high vision to see.  Obviously if they only become visible after the season rolls over, then your vision increased and they are high vision recruits, but you have no idea about the 600+ rated guys that were there the whole time.  It's completely possible that your vision could change and you would see no change whatsoever in your top 5-10 recruits overall.  Using an equation that can accurately rank recruits the way WIS ranks recruits will give you a much clearer picture of where your vision is and how close you are to DIAA vision.

harriswb3, it's not uncommon to have overlap of about 2 points, so your 208-210 is normal.  This overlap is caused by inaccuracies in the equation along with any hidden factors that WIS uses in their equation.  As long as the overlap isn't more than a few points, it's still a pretty good guage.  I usually just take the lowest red and the highest black and average them.

there is no rule for that but as your vision improves you see more 600 rated guys at the Div II level. 
using the OL you propose tells me nothing more than the top 5-10 does because more than likely only 15-20% of those guys would i find recruitable when i'm at a certain vision level.
more importantly rarely do DIAA teams reach down a level to recruit severely lower rated overall player on OL or DL unless they're scouting for STL's.
i have never had the top 5-10 fail to tell me if my vision goes up since i've been using it. it always changes.one way or another.

we'll have to agree to disagree on this premise of vision. you have your system and i have mine. neither is going to change the other's mind about it.

If this is the case for you then you have never been in top vision for more then one year in a row.

Posted by tigerpark135 on 11/1/2011 10:42:00 PM (view original):
You know (Yatzr), I'd bet that when we are looking at the vision column sorted and then look over at our "core" Column and seeing some of those out of order (in accordance to the core column vs the vision column) and then even some severely out of order that perhaps this could be a possible way to see "tapped out" or "skys the limit" depending on what we are seeing and where we are seeing it.  

Some times it could behoove one to use creative thinking in accordance with mathematical thinking.   Then again, it could simply mean nothing at all.  I am in recruiting right now and will check a few in the morning. 

Tiger, did this line of thinking ever pan out?  

Out of curiosity, has anyone tried to compile a "Top Vision" estimate for each division?

D3 - 220ish?
D2 - 270ish?
D1AA - ??
D1 - ??

I'm interested in knowing if total wins determine vision or win pct or how many wins in post-season or some comibination all of the above. This might help me set my non-conference schedule.

WIS says that your WIS ranking is what sets it.  My personal observation is that total wins is what is important.

But, at some point you need to make the playoffs to get above a certain vision. (You need 15, 16, 17 wins, etc.)

WIS rankings are very important to getting into the playoffs ...

updated my earlier post above, regarding vision history.

Posted by tigerpark135 on 11/1/2011 10:42:00 PM (view original):
You know (Yatzr), I'd bet that when we are looking at the vision column sorted and then look over at our "core" Column and seeing some of those out of order (in accordance to the core column vs the vision column) and then even some severely out of order that perhaps this could be a possible way to see "tapped out" or "skys the limit" depending on what we are seeing and where we are seeing it.  

Some times it could behoove one to use creative thinking in accordance with mathematical thinking.   Then again, it could simply mean nothing at all.  I am in recruiting right now and will check a few in the morning. 

I think you'd only be able to see things like that at the boundary of your vision.

Posted by harriswb3 on 11/30/2011 5:47:00 PM (view original):
UPDATE:  Finished last season at 15-2, Won my first Conf Championship in this world, went to 3rd round of playoffs, final WIS ranking of #7.  My vision went up from 209 to 214.  A pretty significant jump I think.

yatzr, here is a partial....  not sure if I still have the data sets from earlie seasons.  I seem to have a lot of "overlap" with in/out of vision players....so there is no CLEAR cutoff.  It looks like its between 208 and 210.

This is DIII, Wilkinson (Istarted playing this game in season 66)

Season	Wins	Losses	CC Game	Con Champ	Playoffs	Prev 3 Seasons	Vision Score
63	1	12
64	4	9
65	8	6	Y
66	8	6	YES			13
67	8	6	YES			20
68	7	6				24
69	7	6				23
70	9	5	YES			22
71	11	4	YES		Rnd 1	23
72	9	5	YES			27	209
73	10	4			Rnd 1	29	209
74	15	2	YES	YES	Rnd 3	30	209

75                                                                                                      34                           214

Upate after season 75 in Wilkson.  Added 6 more wins over 3 year period for total of 40 in that span.  Vision went up from 214 to 217. 

Season	Wins	Losses	In CC Game	Conf Champion	Playoffs	Prev 3 Seasons Wins	Vision at Recruiting Start
63	1	12
64	4	9
65	8	6	Y
66	8	6	YES			13
67	8	6	YES			20
68	7	6				24
69	7	6				23
70	9	5	YES			22
71	11	4	YES		Rnd 1	23
72	9	5	YES			27	209
73	10	4			Rnd 1	29	209
74	15	2	YES	YES	Rnd 3	30	209
75	15	2	YES		Rnd 3	34	214
76						40	217