Question for those who like math. Topic

deathinahole
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/6/2011 11:02:00 AM (view original):
I put everything in words.    Assists+plus plays-negative plays-errors divided by innings played for IF.  Putouts+assists+plus plays-negative plays-errors divided by innings played for OF.

IOW, Greg Woods makes 3.19 plays "good isolated solo plays" per 9 while Hector Arias makes 0.70 per nine.   They're credited for good plays and deducted for bad ones.  That way, your C playing 1B with 19 negative plays is credited appropriately.   I'd say, on my MG team, that Woods' defense is worth more than 4 times as much as Arias'.

Really, I use it to compare players on my team but it works in determining who's defense is "more important" and by roughly how much.

My other 1B:

Eduardo Oliva

1B

1.232000

Hector Arias

1B

0.077844

Felix Cashman

1B

0.047619

Vic Mercado

1B

0.030534

Mercado is a butcher. 
HA! Roast me over the fire for waiving him!
12/6/2011 1:08 PM
deanod
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Posted by topoftheworl on 12/6/2011 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 12:46:00 PM (view original):
you guys do realize that hitting is like an enormous part of what he's asking, right?
Not really.  I am looking at what value does being a good enough to play SS have over only being good enough to play CF or 2b or whatever.  I plan on using whatever I come up with to help me draft better, trade better, etc. Obviously this ignores team needs, but I am trying to come up with a rule of thumb.

Hitting is enormous in that equation.

If you have 2 guys who OPS .800, one has 5 +, 0 -, 8 E at SS and the other has the same defensive stats at 1B, the only way to tell what the difference in values is by knowing what the average fielder and hitter does at that position.

fwiw i went thru GAP and took a sample of everybody with 500+ IP at each position.  i assigned a runs value to each player which is runs created per 625 PA + (plus plays - minus plays - errors) *.67 per 1250 innings in the field.  I pro-rated by total innings in the field, to get a really good snapshot it would probably be necessary to do this over 10 worlds, but I have it for one so you at least get a ballpark. 

C 64.1
1B 91.9
2B 79.4
3B 79.3
SS 49.2
LF 85.4
CF 72.3
RF 84.8

12/6/2011 1:09 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/6/2011 11:28:00 AM (view original):
Yeah, it feels kind of nerdy.   But I draw a line at attempting to figure out how many runs are gained/lost by using Beckett instead of Wood at SS.   But it's also why I didn't freak when I had to use Mercado's 33/37/28/41 instead of Arias' poor range LF-like 44/50/53/64 at 1B for 15 games.
death, I'm guessing you missed this part. 
12/6/2011 1:18 PM
MikeT23
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Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topoftheworl on 12/6/2011 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 12:46:00 PM (view original):
you guys do realize that hitting is like an enormous part of what he's asking, right?
Not really.  I am looking at what value does being a good enough to play SS have over only being good enough to play CF or 2b or whatever.  I plan on using whatever I come up with to help me draft better, trade better, etc. Obviously this ignores team needs, but I am trying to come up with a rule of thumb.

Hitting is enormous in that equation.

If you have 2 guys who OPS .800, one has 5 +, 0 -, 8 E at SS and the other has the same defensive stats at 1B, the only way to tell what the difference in values is by knowing what the average fielder and hitter does at that position.

fwiw i went thru GAP and took a sample of everybody with 500+ IP at each position.  i assigned a runs value to each player which is runs created per 625 PA + (plus plays - minus plays - errors) *.67 per 1250 innings in the field.  I pro-rated by total innings in the field, to get a really good snapshot it would probably be necessary to do this over 10 worlds, but I have it for one so you at least get a ballpark. 

C 64.1
1B 91.9
2B 79.4
3B 79.3
SS 49.2
LF 85.4
CF 72.3
RF 84.8

See?  This is nerdy.

"i assigned a runs value to each player which is runs created per 625 PA + (plus plays - minus plays - errors) *.67 per 1250 innings in the field"

Did you pull a number from the air?  It appears you did.

12/6/2011 1:19 PM
deathinahole
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No. I just twisted it to my own purpose.
12/6/2011 1:19 PM
deanod
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Posted by MikeT23 on 12/6/2011 1:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 1:09:00 PM (view original):
Posted by topoftheworl on 12/6/2011 12:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 12:46:00 PM (view original):
you guys do realize that hitting is like an enormous part of what he's asking, right?
Not really.  I am looking at what value does being a good enough to play SS have over only being good enough to play CF or 2b or whatever.  I plan on using whatever I come up with to help me draft better, trade better, etc. Obviously this ignores team needs, but I am trying to come up with a rule of thumb.

Hitting is enormous in that equation.

If you have 2 guys who OPS .800, one has 5 +, 0 -, 8 E at SS and the other has the same defensive stats at 1B, the only way to tell what the difference in values is by knowing what the average fielder and hitter does at that position.

fwiw i went thru GAP and took a sample of everybody with 500+ IP at each position.  i assigned a runs value to each player which is runs created per 625 PA + (plus plays - minus plays - errors) *.67 per 1250 innings in the field.  I pro-rated by total innings in the field, to get a really good snapshot it would probably be necessary to do this over 10 worlds, but I have it for one so you at least get a ballpark. 

C 64.1
1B 91.9
2B 79.4
3B 79.3
SS 49.2
LF 85.4
CF 72.3
RF 84.8

See?  This is nerdy.

"i assigned a runs value to each player which is runs created per 625 PA + (plus plays - minus plays - errors) *.67 per 1250 innings in the field"

Did you pull a number from the air?  It appears you did.

That formula is perfectly logical.  The only arbitrary part was 625/1250.  I could have gone with 650/1300 or 700/1400, but it really wouldn't have made much of a difference since all of the ratios would remain the same.

12/6/2011 1:23 PM
deathinahole
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That's part of why I think PC and arm for a catcher are underrated.

I'm positive that in a pitchers park, the difference between an 85 and 50 PC with an above average arm all in is about half a run in ERA, which is 81 runs a season.

So you bat around the math (assuming that catcher is going to generate less than 64 runs, since they are usually lighter hitters), and it works most time.

It's the other 8 positions that I need to grasp now.
12/6/2011 1:31 PM
deathinahole
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Even 85 to 65, which I think is a quarter run, is 40 runs a season.
12/6/2011 1:32 PM
MikeT23
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Regardless of what formula I run, I keep coming back to RF is a dead zone.    Not sure you can play a 1B out there but using a weak-armed LF doesn't do much damage.    S12 RF  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Felipe Lee, S11 RF   Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Vic Cervantes/ Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Alejandro Guzman

Cervantes is almost a 2B/3B.  Guzman was a low range 3B.  Lee is a sort of average LF.   My formula:

Vic Cervantes

RF

0.166432

242.6573

Alejandro Guzman

RF

0.152395

222.1916

Felipe Lee

RF

0.143536

209.2754

Over the course of 162 games, playing 9 innings in each one, Cervantes would make about 33 more isolated good plays.   A guy who crushes is infinitely more valuable than a top-flight D who's an average hitter for RF.

12/6/2011 1:33 PM
boogerlips
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Posted by topoftheworl on 12/6/2011 12:54:00 PM (view original):
Posted by boogerlips on 12/6/2011 12:16:00 PM (view original):
Seems like the best way to answer to the OP's question is to note how each player type performs at all 7 positions. How many +/- plays and errors does a SS make while playing 1B? and how many +/- plays and errors does a 1B make while playing SS? etc...
I don't agree, because one would never play a 1B at SS.  Its not that Prince Fielder has no valuable because he plays first instead of SS as a -150 125 error season from him at SS might indicate, he would just have a larger value if he did play SS.  If we could field a team and put everyone at SS at the same time this method would be the correct one, but we can't.  As Mike has alluded to, part of the reason a SS has more value than a LF is that more balls are hit to him.  The same guy at both spots assuming he is a great defender is more valuable at SS because of the greater number of balls hit to him.
Keep thinking...
12/6/2011 1:39 PM
MikeT23
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The one I'm not sure of is the C/DH at 1B.   Because they usually have strong arms, they still get the assists and only make a few more errors because of glove.  It's the double digit negative plays that bother me even though my formula doesn't make them horrible. 
12/6/2011 1:42 PM
deanod
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Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 1:31:00 PM (view original):
That's part of why I think PC and arm for a catcher are underrated.

I'm positive that in a pitchers park, the difference between an 85 and 50 PC with an above average arm all in is about half a run in ERA, which is 81 runs a season.

So you bat around the math (assuming that catcher is going to generate less than 64 runs, since they are usually lighter hitters), and it works most time.

It's the other 8 positions that I need to grasp now.
lol wut

first of all, the worse your pitching staff/more hitter friendly your park is, the more defense saves runs.  PC is going to be less valuable in a pitcher's park.

secondly, to save half a run per game that means that you need to shave 18 points of your batting average.  there is no ******* way in **** that 2 points in pitch calling save 1 pt of batting average.

all wifs will say is that a 10 point difference is not significant but a 40 point difference is.  i have no idea what the **** that means- maybe that every 10 points is worth 1 pt of batting average?  Half a point?  Who knows.

FWIW if you set 10 pts = 1 point of average, that means that the difference between a 50 and 85 is ~ 15 runs a season.
12/6/2011 1:47 PM
MikeT23
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The engine has changed a lot since I last checked but 10 points in PC equated to, more or less, 0.12 in ERA.  So, using that as a base, 40 points would equal just under 80 earned runs on the season.

But that was back in the early days of HBD.   I checked about 20 seasons of my teams only(because I knew how I used my players).   And only used C who caught at least 25% of the innings. 
12/6/2011 1:55 PM
deanod
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i think it's nearly impossible to do any sort of analysis that isolates the value of PC in a meaningful sample.
12/6/2011 1:59 PM (edited)
boogerlips
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I think its nearly possible too.
12/6/2011 2:00 PM
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