Question for those who like math. Topic

deathinahole
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Or maybe not. If I haven't done it in 6 years.
12/6/2011 2:25 PM
MikeT23
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See?  That's where you're incorrect.

I think I had played in 5-6 worlds at the time.  I threw Aaron out because WifS was tweaking every day.   Greenwell was only 2 seasons.  So it was 7-8 seasons of Joey Belle, 6-7 seasons of MG, 5-6 seasons of Coop and maybe a season or two of Happy Jack.   The numbers are still there.  Look at them.

As I said, I only used my catchers(although I tested my theory on a couple of other teams) and I only used the ones that had at least 25% of the innings caught. 

There was a pattern.   I estimated it at 10 = .12.   It held for awhile and I quit checking. 

12/6/2011 2:27 PM
deanod
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did you use a catcher as a defensive replacement?  if so, were the RP's he caught higher or lower quality than your SP's?  by how much?  how many other defensive replacements boosted your defense for those innings in which your D-spec catcher was in the game?

did you isolate the throwing arm out of the equation?

did you platoon catchers?  did you have any other platoons with significant differences in range?

what would you estimate the margin for error of your analysis is, given the SSS?
12/6/2011 2:32 PM
MikeT23
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The numbers are there.  Check for yourself.

I'd estimate the margin of error to be .012 per 1 point of PC given the small sample size.   But there was a pattern and it held true. 
12/6/2011 2:35 PM
deanod
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if somebody really wanted to do an effective analysis, here's what i'd do.

sign up for a team in a neutral park.  sign 2 catchers, with a PC difference of like 40.  don't fiddle with your lineups, don't fiddle with your pitching staff.  if a player needs a few off days to stay at 100%, distribute them evenly over the course of the season.  start one catcher for half of the team games, the other catcher for the other half.  if a pitcher gets hurt, replace him with the closest quality pitcher you can, same for a position player wrt glove.  after ~ 10 seasons, you should have a ballpark estimate as to the value of PC.

the other option is this: track the game by game performance of each pitcher with each catcher in the lineup.  i.e. if i'm starting my 85 PC guy, and the opponent goes 8 for 26 against him, tally it in a spreadsheet.  if a defender saves a hit with a + play, add it to the pitcher's hit total.  if a defender allows a baserunner with a - play, subtract it from the pitcher's hit total.  throw out games played in parks with extreme effects.  in due time you should have a pretty decent sample of how much each catcher affects each pitcher's OAV.
12/6/2011 2:41 PM
MikeT23
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FWIW, that number "feels" high and "felt" high when I did it.  But, even though I utilize one C a lot more now, the numbers are still somewhat workable. 
In limited duty(250-500 innings), Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Orlando Bonilla always has the best CERA among my catchers(60ish PC) by .2 to .5 runs.  
12/6/2011 2:45 PM
deanod
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I'm actually probably going to track OAV by pitcher/catcher combination over the course of the MG season.  hopefully the results will be scintillating!
12/6/2011 2:59 PM
deathinahole
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It will be!

And, what you said to track it exists, you just need to dig, you lazy bastard.
12/6/2011 3:05 PM
deathinahole
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And, OAV is the worng thing to track. Yes it will be lower, but don't use your "this much lower OAV =" bullshit. Stick to the ERA, and then work backwards.
12/6/2011 3:06 PM
deanod
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Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 3:06:00 PM (view original):
And, OAV is the worng thing to track. Yes it will be lower, but don't use your "this much lower OAV =" bullshit. Stick to the ERA, and then work backwards.
seeing that PC directly affects OAV, i'm pretty sure that's the correct thing to track.
12/6/2011 3:23 PM
deathinahole
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If you believe everything you're told, sure.

If you prefer to measure everything so your results are not biased, then don't.
12/6/2011 3:32 PM
jvford
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Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 2:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually probably going to track OAV by pitcher/catcher combination over the course of the MG season.  hopefully the results will be scintillating!
I actually did this in S12 of Moneyball after higher PC C had a higher cERA in S11.  Of course, my SP ended up with higher OAV pitching to my higher PC C.
12/6/2011 3:32 PM
deanod
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Posted by jvford on 12/6/2011 3:32:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 2:59:00 PM (view original):
I'm actually probably going to track OAV by pitcher/catcher combination over the course of the MG season.  hopefully the results will be scintillating!
I actually did this in S12 of Moneyball after higher PC C had a higher cERA in S11.  Of course, my SP ended up with higher OAV pitching to my higher PC C.
yeah, i think it's going to take a good 8-10 seasons to become statistically significant.

but i figure 2 mins a day to log this stuff won't be so bad.  maybe if i get really ambitious i'll firesale you gorkys bautista in MB so i can platoon two catchers and expedite the experiment :p
12/6/2011 3:37 PM
iain
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Posted by deanod on 12/6/2011 3:23:00 PM (view original):
Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 3:06:00 PM (view original):
And, OAV is the worng thing to track. Yes it will be lower, but don't use your "this much lower OAV =" bullshit. Stick to the ERA, and then work backwards.
seeing that PC directly affects OAV, i'm pretty sure that's the correct thing to track.
100% agree... and I'm glad someone finally said this.

ERA has too much noise (walks, just for openers) for this kind of a study, considering OAV is the only thing PC affects directly.
12/6/2011 3:49 PM
iain
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Posted by deathinahole on 12/6/2011 3:32:00 PM (view original):
If you believe everything you're told, sure.

If you prefer to measure everything so your results are not biased, then don't.

Just because you're paranoid, it doesn't mean someone isn't after you.

12/6/2011 3:50 PM
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