All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > MLB > 2014 Orioles Thread (90-60): Magic Number at 1
4/9/2014 11:02 AM
Posted by burnsy483 on 4/9/2014 9:35:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Jtpsops on 4/8/2014 6:36:00 PM (view original):
No pitching? I love overreactors like you. You're probably screaming "Marlins are going all the way, baby!". It's 8 games in. Tillman looks good, Jimenez will get it together, and Gonzo will be fine. Chen and Norris worry me, but Gausman will be replacing one of them within a month.
Compared to the rest of the division? No, the O's don't have pitching.
Also....what he said.
4/9/2014 12:42 PM
Posted by Jtpsops on 4/8/2014 6:36:00 PM (view original):
No pitching? I love overreactors like you. You're probably screaming "Marlins are going all the way, baby!". It's 8 games in. Tillman looks good, Jimenez will get it together, and Gonzo will be fine. Chen and Norris worry me, but Gausman will be replacing one of them within a month.
Tillman is, at best, a third starter on any team (AL or NL) that has a realistic shot at making the playoffs. Take a look.

Red Sox - Lester, Peavy, and maybe Lackey are better
Rays - Tillman might be the 5th starter in Tampa
Yankees - Sabathia and Tanaka are better
Detroit - Verlander/Scherzer/Sanchez are better
Oakland - I'd rather have Gray and Kazmir
Texas - He'd be #2 after Darvish right now but only because of injuries and, once Holland comes back, Tillman would be #3.
Indians - Masterson/Kluber/Salazar are probably better
Washington - Tillman would be 4th or 5th in the rotation
Cards - Would Tillman even make the rotation?
Dodgers - With a healthy Kershaw, Tillman might be the 4th starter.
Giants - Maybe Tillman beats out Vogelsong for the 5th spot
Reds - Tillman would be the 5th starter after Cueto, Latos, Cingrani, & Bailey. Assuming he beats out Leake.
Pirates - Liriano and Cole are better.

Tillman is not a #1 on any team good enough to make the playoffs.


4/9/2014 1:14 PM
For the Sox, I'd put Lackey ahead and if Buch can stay healthy, he'd be WAY ahead.
4/9/2014 1:17 PM
I don't think Lackey, Peavy, Sabathia, Kazmir, Gray, Holland, Masterson, Kluber, Salazar, Cingrani, Cole, or Bailey - amongst the specifically named pitchers - are better than Tillman.  He'd probably be the #3 starter on the Cardinals, #4 on the Rays, 3 or 4 with the Nationals.  And yeah, at best 4 with the Dodgers.  That's a pretty special top 3, though.  But seriously, 5 for the Giants?  Have you seen Cain pitch recently?  And Lincecum hasn't even been average since 2011.  Bumgarner is obviously the ace of that staff at this point, but Tillman would be fighting with Hudson for #2.

Seriously, if you're trying to make a point, at least keep your comments outside the realm of hilariously stupid.

4/9/2014 1:18 PM
Posted by 05nomar05 on 4/9/2014 1:14:00 PM (view original):
For the Sox, I'd put Lackey ahead and if Buch can stay healthy, he'd be WAY ahead.
If anybody other than Lester is really a guy you wouldn't trade for Tillman right now for this year only, it would be Buchholz.
4/9/2014 1:22 PM
I'd rather have Tillman over a handful of those guys...I think BL is undervaluing him a little bit.
4/9/2014 1:26 PM
I like Tillman - I don't love 2-5 and the pen.  I see 4 guys who I'd guess have low to mid 4s ERA this year.
4/9/2014 1:30 PM
Posted by dahsdebater on 4/9/2014 1:17:00 PM (view original):
I don't think Lackey, Peavy, Sabathia, Kazmir, Gray, Holland, Masterson, Kluber, Salazar, Cingrani, Cole, or Bailey - amongst the specifically named pitchers - are better than Tillman.  He'd probably be the #3 starter on the Cardinals, #4 on the Rays, 3 or 4 with the Nationals.  And yeah, at best 4 with the Dodgers.  That's a pretty special top 3, though.  But seriously, 5 for the Giants?  Have you seen Cain pitch recently?  And Lincecum hasn't even been average since 2011.  Bumgarner is obviously the ace of that staff at this point, but Tillman would be fighting with Hudson for #2.

Seriously, if you're trying to make a point, at least keep your comments outside the realm of hilariously stupid.

Ok, fine, he's battling Cain for the #3 spot on the Giants, a team that probably doesn't make the playoffs. Awesome.

I would take everyone in your first line (maybe not Lackey/Holland/Sabathia) over Tillman. Looking at his 2013 numbers, his k rate and walk rate are average, his GB rate is below average, and a higher than average percentage of his fly balls allowed leave the park for home runs.

That's a recipe for disaster. 

Maybe you see him a lot more than me and know something I don't. But when I see the above rates combined with a really low BABIP allowed and a strand rate 10% higher than league average, it doesn't give me a lot of confidence in his ability to maintain a sub-4 ERA.
4/9/2014 1:32 PM
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.
4/9/2014 1:37 PM
I don't love the Indian pitchers as much as BL does and I want to see Kazmir do that again this year.  I think Sabathia's days an an ace are over.  Good points though...stats suggest he's playing with fire.  Maybe it's 5 guys with ERAs in the 4s.
4/9/2014 4:00 PM
CC hasn't been an ace for a long time.  Workhorse is a better description. 
4/9/2014 10:49 PM
High HR/FB isn't a warning sign, it's an indicator of bad luck, just as low BABIP is an indicator of good luck.  In his case I would say it is very likely that he overperformed in terms of ERA last season, but not by a large margin.  OTOH, I don't think he pitched up to his potential last year.  It took him years to get adjusted to being a Major League pitcher, and once he got that he was almost immediately cast as an ace.  I think that took some adjustment as well.  To be totally honest, he's not the strongest player psychologically.  I think that's pretty obvious by this point.  However, it's worth pointing out that in the second half of last season Tillman was appreciably better than he was in the first half.  His record dropped off, but his ERA, WHIP, K rate, and walk rate all got better as the season went on.  If you dig into his PitchFX database, you'll find that from late June on he threw substantially more strikes and drew substantially more swing-and-misses than he did through the first 3 months of the season.  He's also throwing 2-3 MPH harder than he was this time last year, although not as hard as he was later in the year, particularly in the warmer part of summer.

All things considered, having watched the guy pitched, I have a high degree of confidence that he's a better pitcher than last year's stats would suggest.  Possibly a lot better.  I wouldn't trade Lester or Buchholz for him, or Ryu, or anybody anywhere near the top of Washington's rotation.  But he is incredibly deceptive, since there just aren't many over-the-top pitchers anymore, and nobody knows what to do with a true 12-6 curve coming from a high arm slot.  I think this year you'll see an ERA in the vicinity of 3.3-3.4 from him, which is a pretty solid number in the AL BEast.
4/9/2014 10:50 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 4/9/2014 4:00:00 PM (view original):
CC hasn't been an ace for a long time.  Workhorse is a better description. 
If you have Yankee money to pay them, workhorses are a valuable commodity.  Unless they're awful.
4/9/2014 11:29 PM (edited)
Some people also don't seem to realize pitching goes beyond the rotation. The Yankees bullpen is horrid - fans better get used to seeing what happened tonight. A solid start followed by a loss from the pen.

As far as Tanaka, he's good, but so far in his two starts, he's looked hittable. I'm not interested in his Japanese reputation - he has to show it here. So far, two starts, 3 runs over 7 IP in each is good - it's not "ace level".

And Tillman has handled Boston and Detroit so far. The guy is consistently good and always gives his team a very good chance to win.
4/9/2014 11:31 PM
Posted by bad_luck on 4/9/2014 1:32:00 PM (view original):
And I'm not an Oriole/Tillman hater. I would love for the Orioles to finish ahead of the Yankees this year. I just don't see them making the playoffs.
You lost any shred of credibility you may have had when you said you'd take Kazmir over Tillman.

Moron.
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