No one said the Orioles aren't good. The point is that you shouldn't be surprised by any series outcome. If they started the series over again today, I wouldn't be shocked if Detroit swept. Or if Baltimore won another three straight. Or if it went five.

Playoffs are a crapshoot.

Go look up the average number of 3-game series sweeps in a full regular season and then tell me again that it isn't a surprising result.

In April, the Orioles lost 2 to Boston, followed by 2 to Detroit, starting the season 1-4.
In May, the Orioles lost two games to Milwaukee, followed by two losses to Houston.
In August, they were swept by the Cubs (after sweeping the White Sox).
In September, they lost 3 straight to the Blue Jays/Yankees combo.

I don't remember people saying "Well, that's surprising. How did that happen?" It's baseball, it happens. While I don't think anyone picked the O's to sweep, most people wouldn't predict three heads if you flipped a coin 3 times, either.

Posted by dahsdebater on 10/6/2014 10:12:00 PM (view original):
Go look up the average number of 3-game series sweeps in a full regular season and then tell me again that it isn't a surprising result.

Since 1998, there have been 2515 regular season three game series sweeps out of 9278 three game series. A little over 27% of the time. So no, not really surprising.

I am surprised it's THAT often.  Interesting.

Actually...no, I shouldn't be.

50% X 50% X 50% = 12.5%. 
12.5% X 2 = 25%

Posted by burnsy483 on 10/7/2014 1:15:00 PM (view original):
Actually...no, I shouldn't be.

50% X 50% X 50% = 12.5%. 
12.5% X 2 = 25%

?

50% chance to win each game.  
2 teams. 

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 1:47:00 PM (view original):
50% chance to win each game.  
2 teams. 

Of course, I'm not so sure I agree with this.   Games aren't a coin flip.  The better team might not always win but they win more often.    If sports were just a coin flip, we wouldn't watch and the buildings in Vegas would be smaller.

Then make it 65%.

65% X 65% X 65% = 27.46%
35% X 35% X 35% = 4.39%

Chance of a sweep actually goes up.  31% and change.


Of course, some teams would be favored in some games and not others, depending on pitching matchups.

60% X 40% X 60% = 14.4%
40% X 60% X 40% = 9.6%

24% or so.

The point is, a sweep by Baltimore wasn't too crazy. Sweeps happen.

I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:08:00 PM (view original):

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 1:47:00 PM (view original):
50% chance to win each game.  
2 teams. 

Of course, I'm not so sure I agree with this.   Games aren't a coin flip.  The better team might not always win but they win more often.    If sports were just a coin flip, we wouldn't watch and the buildings in Vegas would be smaller.

Individual MLB baseball games are about as close to a coin flip as you get in sports. Even big differences in talent only cause a slight shift in the odds of winning.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:28:00 PM (view original):
I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.

A) Vegas doesn't care what the actual odds are, only the perception and betting patterns.
B) Anytime you bet the 1 in a 1 out of 4 situation, you should be getting a pretty favorable payout.

Posted by MikeT23 on 10/7/2014 3:28:00 PM (view original):
I'd say the chance of a Baltimore sweep was less than the league average.    I don't think it was crazy impossible but I bet Vegas would have let you lay a lot of money on a Baltimore sweep and given you some pretty good odds.

I'd guess Vegas would have offered it at 13/2 or so.

And a Detroit sweep at 5 to 1. I don't think I'll be able to find these odds, if they were even available to bet on, but I'm going to check.

Yea, I can't find it.