All Forums > General Discussion > Non-Sports > Obama: Worst President Ever?
10/26/2012 10:09 PM
We are getting close to the final week

Doesnt political urban myth say that undecideds in the last week break for the challenger?
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10/29/2012 8:36 PM
538 is a joke.

Here is something that is a little closer to what is going to happen...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard 
10/29/2012 8:43 PM (edited)
Posted by bad_luck on 10/29/2012 6:09:00 PM (view original):
The state polls are what matter now. And Obama is going to win
Disagree. Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Wisconsin, Colorado, all seem to be trending Romney. If you think Obama wins this election, especially in a landslide, prepare to be disappointed.
10/29/2012 8:44 PM
538 is a joke because.... you don't agree with the end result of the analysis, a President Obama victory.

In 2010 it was accurate that Repubs would gain a metric fuckton of House seats. No Pub was complaining then.
10/29/2012 9:08 PM (edited)
Posted by stinenavy on 10/29/2012 8:44:00 PM (view original):
538 is a joke because.... you don't agree with the end result of the analysis, a President Obama victory.

In 2010 it was accurate that Repubs would gain a metric fuckton of House seats. No Pub was complaining then.
I put a lot of weight on Gallup and Rasmussen polling. they both tend to be the most professional and the best in industry at vetting their calls for likely voters. always have been that way.

everyone else is not as good imo whether it's real clear politics, nbc, wsj, Fox news, or 538.
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10/30/2012 1:10 AM
Disregard Silver's work at your own peril.
10/30/2012 1:57 AM
Silver had some success but he wasnt perfect by any standard and he has only been doing this for a short time. 2010 wasnt exactly a mystery and he undershot how well the Republicans would do by a pretty wide margin.

Silver is a hot item right now so people are talking about him, but he doesnt have an actual track record.
10/30/2012 10:21 AM
Posted by swamphawk22 on 10/30/2012 1:57:00 AM (view original):
Silver had some success but he wasnt perfect by any standard and he has only been doing this for a short time. 2010 wasnt exactly a mystery and he undershot how well the Republicans would do by a pretty wide margin.

Silver is a hot item right now so people are talking about him, but he doesnt have an actual track record.
Nate Silver's 2010 track record:
  • He correctly predicted 34/36 Senate seats whose outcomes were resolved by November 4, 2010
  • He predicted a net gain of 54 seats in the House for Republicans (the House actually gained 63 Republicans)
  • Nate correctly predicted the outcome in 36 of 37 gubernatorial elections

Even the elections that Silver got wrong were with in his published margins of error.

In 2008 he called 49 of 50 states.

Using his PECOTA system
he predicted that the defending World Champion White Sox would go 72-90 in 2006 after back-to-back 90-win seasons. The White Sox went 72-90.


As usual, you do not know what you are talking about. But go ahead and disregard what he has done.
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10/30/2012 12:42 PM
I dont think Silver was biased to help Dems.

I just think his model is close but when it misses it misses to favor the left.

Some of his model is fed by other polls that may be biased by choice.



10/30/2012 12:53 PM
So over the course of a few posts 538 went from a "joke" to "close".

Gotta love the Pubs this election cycle. The excuses are either political hackery (unskewed polls) or outright denial ("538 is a joke").
10/30/2012 2:20 PM
538 is a joke this time.

It isnt seeing the trends.

He doesnt see the continuing trending, he has said this in multiple interviews.

Romney is tredning all over.
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