7/11/2012 10:23 AM
Posted by abitaamber on 7/11/2012 9:31:00 AM (view original):
Posted by gvsujulius on 7/10/2012 7:09:00 PM (view original):
So it is better to be at any A10 school over being at Davidson? I thought Davidson had higher baseline but am I to assume it is D under all other schools?
Davidson definitely does not have a higher baseline prestige.  The baselines were formulated before Stephon Curry arrived on the scene. 
Davidson's last pre-Stephen* Curry win in the NT?  1969.  Davidson's a terrible basketball school that got really lucky with a recruit.

*Bless his heart, he spells it normally.  His real first name's still silly, though, even if it's a family thing.  It's not T-Bone Steakburner silly, but it's silly.
7/11/2012 12:12 PM
I wouldn't say terrible --- Davidson has had two very good runs in their history --- the Curry run, and prior to that, a nice run in the 60s and early 70s with Lefty Driesell & Terry Holland at the helm.  They went through a period in the 80s where they almost dropped their athletics program entirely, and it crippled the program.  They left the SoCon, spent a couple of years in the Big South, before finally re-joining the SoCon.

They have the most tournament bids of any SoCon school, and certainly the most tournament wins.  Definitely not terrible.

That said, I wasn't advocating that they should have a higher baseline; they certainly should not.
7/19/2012 9:48 AM
Posted by Iguana1 on 6/25/2012 4:03:00 PM (view original):
the best initial grades we had were those listed after season 1 in Phelan and Knight.  I've used those grades and the results that occured that season to come up with my grades.

Georgetown was an A- in both worlds after that first season.  In one world they won the PIT and in the other they went 2 rounds in the NT. 
However West Virginia also went to the 2nd round of the NT in Knight season 1 and they also ended up at a A-.  Not likely that two teams, two grades apart in opening prestige, both end up at the same prestige grade after similiar season 1 results.  If anything Georgetown had a better season 1 resume.

Plus Georgetown also has dropped down to C- in multiple worlds. 
And when I checked about a year ago that was something I don't believe Louisville and Cincinnati had done.


I also have Arkansas at a starting grade of B, rather than a B+.
Again I compare first season results vs conference mates.  
Arkansas ended up season 1 in Phelan with a B+.    A loss in the first round of the NT, 17 wins, 42 rpi
Mississippi ended up season 1 in Phelan with a B+.  They also lost in the first round of the NT, 16 wins, 59 rpi.
Looking at Knight season 1, LSU, South Carolina and Vanderbilt all lost in the first round of the NT and ended with B+ prestige grades.
Hard to see how Arkansas is B+ and the others are B.

As somebody coaching a Georgetown team that is locked in at A- prestige, I have trouble believing that they have an A- baseline as well.
7/19/2012 9:59 AM
Posted by acn24 on 7/19/2012 9:48:00 AM (view original):
Posted by Iguana1 on 6/25/2012 4:03:00 PM (view original):
the best initial grades we had were those listed after season 1 in Phelan and Knight.  I've used those grades and the results that occured that season to come up with my grades.

Georgetown was an A- in both worlds after that first season.  In one world they won the PIT and in the other they went 2 rounds in the NT. 
However West Virginia also went to the 2nd round of the NT in Knight season 1 and they also ended up at a A-.  Not likely that two teams, two grades apart in opening prestige, both end up at the same prestige grade after similiar season 1 results.  If anything Georgetown had a better season 1 resume.

Plus Georgetown also has dropped down to C- in multiple worlds. 
And when I checked about a year ago that was something I don't believe Louisville and Cincinnati had done.


I also have Arkansas at a starting grade of B, rather than a B+.
Again I compare first season results vs conference mates.  
Arkansas ended up season 1 in Phelan with a B+.    A loss in the first round of the NT, 17 wins, 42 rpi
Mississippi ended up season 1 in Phelan with a B+.  They also lost in the first round of the NT, 16 wins, 59 rpi.
Looking at Knight season 1, LSU, South Carolina and Vanderbilt all lost in the first round of the NT and ended with B+ prestige grades.
Hard to see how Arkansas is B+ and the others are B.

As somebody coaching a Georgetown team that is locked in at A- prestige, I have trouble believing that they have an A- baseline as well.
+1
5/26/2014 3:00 PM
Just bumping up to the top for new people
5/26/2014 3:09 PM (edited)
Posted by Iguana1 on 6/25/2012 12:32:00 PM (view original):
I still believe the above listed "accepted" baseline is probably off on about 1/4 of the teams.
based on the worlds that started when prestige was visible here's what I came up with for the BigEast.

Connecticut A+
Syracuse A+
Cincinnati A-
Louisville A-
Georgetown B
Pittsburgh B
Providence B
Seton Hall B
St. John's B
Villanova B
West Virginia B
Rutgers B-
i am with iguana on this one. he ran the data on the minimum prestige of those schools, and in the cases where his prestige is lower than listed, i think hes almost definitely correct. in the ones where his is higher than listed, it could go either way, but i put more faith in iguana's numbers for sure.

i never heard they only went back 10 seasons, i guess thats why some of these baselines really **** me off. UC higher than ohio state? illinois higher than indiana and WAY higher than georgetown? knowing its 10 seasons, it makes more sense, but if you aren't going to update it for another 10 years, you probably should go back more than 10 seasons... and if its only 10, floating baseline makes a hell of a lot more sense. it was one thing when baseline was the weight of 80 seasons, and HD worlds were into like, 40 seasons. now that its 10 real seasons and 80 HD seasons, that just doesn't really make any sense...

edit: i didn't realize comparing first season results was part of it. i thought he just looked at the minimum prestige over all worlds for all teams, which, assuming someone sucked at every school, would give you all the baseline figures for BCS schools - or at least, the best case prestige figures (in case some school was blessed with never being awful). no school can drop more than 5 partial grades under their baseline, i have more faith in that than any of these other methods, when it conflicts with a lower result. 

seble also only said, to the best of my knowledge, that this list was *reasonably* accurate (emphasis mine).
6/24/2014 12:38 PM
Does Iguana have a baseline list for other conferences that he would publish? (Curious about Georgia in particular.)
6/24/2014 12:40 PM
D1 Georgia is beilieved to be a B
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