Preseason and fatigue Topic

I have seen on numerous occasions the deeper into the season the longer it takes to recover. And by that I mean, while 85 pitchers in game 1 may drop player X to a 50%, 85 pitchers in game 30 drops player X to 25%. Watch your starters during long streaks with no days off. You will notice they have longer to go to get to 100.
7/20/2012 12:54 PM
Here's one specific example from one of the pitchers that I tracked.  He had a durability/stamina of 27/69.  He made 30 starts that season.  Here's the numbers from each start, and the recovery after each start:  He started the season at 100%.

 Start #1)  86 pitches, fatigue level per day after pitching was  23, 48, 72, 97, 100.
2)  89 pitches, 26-51-76-100-100
3)  85 pitches, 34-59-83-100-100-100
4) 78 pitches, 68-93-100-100-100
5) 88 pitches, 57-82-100-100-100
6) 87 pitches, 58-83-100-100-100-100
7) 82 pitches, 64-89-100-100-100
8) 82 pitches, 64-89-100-100-100-100
9) 85 pitches, 61-85-100-100-100
10) 81 pitches, 65-90-100-100-100
11) 83 pitches, 63-87-100-100-100
12) 78 pitches, 68-93-100-100-100
13) 84 pitches, 62-86-100-100-100-100
14) 84 pitches, 62-86-100-100-100
15) 78 pitches, 68-93-100-100-100
16) 83 pitches, 63-87-100-100-100
17) 85 pitches, 61-85-100-100-100
18) 81 pitches, 65-90-100-100-100
19) 78 pitches, 68-93-100-100-100-100  (all-star break)
20) 96 pitches, 49-73-98-100-100
21) 99 pitches, 41-66-91-100-100
22) 89 pitches, 44-69-94-100-100
23) 90 pitches, 47-71-96-100-100
24) 91 pitches, 48-73-97-100-100-100
25) 97 pitches, 48-72-97-100-100
26) 97 pitches, 47-71-96-100-100
27) 88 pitches, 51-76-100-100-100
28) 77 pitches, 67-92-100-100-100
29) 87 pitches, 58-83-100-100-100
30) 87 pitches, 58-83-100-100 (end of season)

If you look at the day to day recovery from start of the season to the end of the season, it was a constant 24 or 25 points per day (I believe fractions come into play, hence the occasional 24 instead of the usual 25).  I also appeard to push him harder with a higher pitch count after the All-Star Break, with no difference in daily fatigue recovery.
7/20/2012 12:56 PM
Posted by usfbully on 7/20/2012 12:54:00 PM (view original):
I have seen on numerous occasions the deeper into the season the longer it takes to recover. And by that I mean, while 85 pitchers in game 1 may drop player X to a 50%, 85 pitchers in game 30 drops player X to 25%. Watch your starters during long streaks with no days off. You will notice they have longer to go to get to 100.
That's because all 100% rested is not the same.

My observation/theory is that "fully rested" is something above 100%, but anything over 100% is displayed as 100.  Likewise, what you see as 0% fatigue can actually be something well under 0% (I'm guessing it could be infinitely negative).  That's why a guy who pitches day after day after day at 0 (0) takes so long to recover.

In your example, assuming that every pitch results in 1% fatigue (depending on his stamina, could be different for every pitcher), player X started game 1 at 135% fatigue, but started game 30 at only 110% fatigue.  Both would show at 100% fatigue (rested), but he was actually more fully rested for game 1 than he was for game 30.

Give him an extra day off between starts here and there during the season, and you'll notice a difference.
7/20/2012 1:12 PM (edited)
You do recognize that virtually no one agrees with you and your assertion that spring training does not "count" in pitcher fatigue, right?  And you do recognize that your "proof" looks like something someone could easily make up as it's just typed in numbers, right?

I've got circumstantial evidence that pitchers recover slower as the season progresses but it's such a small sample size, I usually give my guys an extra day at 100%, that it's not worth listing.
7/20/2012 1:16 PM
True or False:  innings thrown in HBD "March" games affect pitching fatigue recovery rates in HBD "September" games.
7/20/2012 1:22 PM
And my data is data that I collected.  I have a lot more.  If you think I'm just making it up, then that's your choice to believe what you want to believe.

And your "small sample size circumstantial evidence" falls under the category of "unsubstantiated claim".  Either you have data to provide here to back up your arguement, or you don't.
7/20/2012 1:26 PM
True or False.   Position players have a limited number of PA/innings in field per season including ST games.
True or False.   Pitchers have similar restrictions with regards to pitches thrown.

You either answer the same to both or you look like a complete fool.  Or you answer false to both and look like a complete fool.

I anxiously await your response.
7/20/2012 1:32 PM
I agree with what tec is saying, when you don't really push your guys.

But I've seen on numerous occasions when I crack the whip on my guys, during end of the season playoff pushes and during the playoffs, when I skip over my bottom of the rotation starters to get to my studs, without giving them that extra day of rest at 100%, that it does make a difference. They go down faster and recover at a slower rate than they did at their regular usage. I have not data tec, but I'm sure its true.
7/20/2012 1:39 PM
False to both.

There are no predefined season restrictions to PA/innings played for position players, nor are there predefined season restrictions to the number of pitches thrown for pitchers.  Usage is purely governed by the owners, usually based heavily on fatigue levels, which are in turn governed by two two fatigue engines (one for position players, one for pitchers).

Why would you think otherwise?  Do you have "proof", or are you going to fall back on your "small sample size circumstantial evidence" excuse?
7/20/2012 1:41 PM
Ahhh, way to "win" on a technicality.   I assumed you understood I was speaking about 100%.   My bad but I should have known, by your stubborn stupidity in this thread, that I was giving your intelligence way too much credit.
7/20/2012 1:52 PM
Posted by mongoose_22 on 7/20/2012 1:39:00 PM (view original):
I agree with what tec is saying, when you don't really push your guys.

But I've seen on numerous occasions when I crack the whip on my guys, during end of the season playoff pushes and during the playoffs, when I skip over my bottom of the rotation starters to get to my studs, without giving them that extra day of rest at 100%, that it does make a difference. They go down faster and recover at a slower rate than they did at their regular usage. I have not data tec, but I'm sure its true.
Like this:

FWIW, I understand your mindset.    I don't worry about ST and pitchers because I know I'm leaving 100% innings on the table with pitchers and I'm not leaving 100% AB on the table with hitters.  But it's absolutely ludicrous to believe ST fatigue "doesn't count" with pitchers.
7/20/2012 1:53 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 7/20/2012 1:52:00 PM (view original):
Ahhh, way to "win" on a technicality.   I assumed you understood I was speaking about 100%.   My bad but I should have known, by your stubborn stupidity in this thread, that I was giving your intelligence way too much credit.
Oh, way to change the question.  Would you like to rephrase it so that mere mortals can understand your higher-intelligence?
7/20/2012 1:55 PM
Nope.  It's reasonably obvious that you and bricks have a similar understanding of pitcher fatigue and how it relates to ST usage.   I've got a stack of bricks that I think I'll talk to about it.   If they're not too ****** that I compared them to you.
7/20/2012 1:56 PM
Posted by tecwrg on 7/20/2012 1:23:00 PM (view original):
True or False:  innings thrown in HBD "March" games affect pitching fatigue recovery rates in HBD "September" games.
And maybe you can take a shot at answering this true or false question.  Or does it need to be offered in the "Ask the MikeT23 anything" thread?
7/20/2012 1:57 PM
Oh, another example of your intelligence.   Since it's obvious that I believe pitchers have a limited numbers of pitches in their arms, at 100%(not accounting for in-game fatigue), over the 200 day "season" that includes ST(I think this was back on page 1 so it's unreasonable for me to think you'd remember it), it should also be obvious that I think a pitch thrown in "March" does take away from that pile of pitches.    But's it's good to know that you think pitchers have an endless supply of non-fatigued pitches. 
7/20/2012 2:01 PM
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Preseason and fatigue Topic

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