You guys ever watch Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps right before the NCAA tourney? If you add up all the teams that “should be in” you end up with like 80 or 90 for 68 spots. I sense the same love fest here with the team evaluations, it seems like 20 or so teams are getting passing grades.

Reality is 5-6 teams will likely be very good, another 8-12 will be mediocre but have some chance at the playoffs, and 6-11 are just going to plain out suck. Sack up and call out the suck teams already. In the college theme league I called out 11 teams as at best being middle of the pack (meaning I deemed them non-playoff contenders), if the playoffs started today 9 of those 11 would be out (with only 20 games to go). It’s not that hard to see which teams are toast, let’s hear about them already!

i could make an argument, nate, that evals, in themselves, are exercises in futility. are correct about 45-50% of the time. you, having a positive prediction rate of 87.3% is off the charts. so, i say to you, man-up, nate, and win the 52m league and do the evals next season!

I say Nate should just write a one liner about each team. That is what I want to see, you tell us why we'll either win or lose and let's see how close you come on accuracy. Do you accept the challenge?

i know your new nate so you werent around, but the last few evals in this league werent as kind....i know tarheel only had like 8 or 9 teams making the playoffs when he did it and im usually pretty brutal to the teams i dont like when i do evals(just ask jethro or banditone)

Posted by xxevilivexx on 8/31/2012 8:33:00 PM (view original):
I am in such a weird position with this draft. Normally I find myself teetering on the brink of a minutes collapse, or breaking down financially. I haven't even used 34 million and I have options. Usually I'd be out on a Friday night, but I work tomorrow morning so there isn't a point in drunken times. I wonder how often people do what I am doing for these drafts? I have been searching the entire database looking for names that pop out, maybe I'll find that diamond in the rough. Anyways I am up to 6.5-7 Mil guys and I'll keep going at it, however the options are scarce and my list only has five guys so far from the max out point to 7.01 Mil. I'll either find two guys and have a tough team to beat, or run out of options, just weird having the options portion.

you must be confusing this league with the ODL. It's virtually impossible to have issues with minutes or salary in this league.     

Where there is a will I usually find a way, I should have applied it more to value per minute.

First since I’ve not earned the right to do full evals I won’t. However, what I will do is categorize all of the teams into one of four groups. I may do another eval after the divisions are assigned and I can view exactly which versions of each player people are using, but I’ll go ahead and take a crack at rating the teams pre-version and pre-division assignment.

Posted by natenoy on 8/31/2012 10:12:00 PM (view original):
You guys ever watch Dick Vitale and Digger Phelps right before the NCAA tourney? If you add up all the teams that “should be in” you end up with like 80 or 90 for 68 spots. I sense the same love fest here with the team evaluations, it seems like 20 or so teams are getting passing grades.

Reality is 5-6 teams will likely be very good, another 8-12 will be mediocre but have some chance at the playoffs, and 6-11 are just going to plain out suck. Sack up and call out the suck teams already. In the college theme league I called out 11 teams as at best being middle of the pack (meaning I deemed them non-playoff contenders), if the playoffs started today 9 of those 11 would be out (with only 20 games to go). It’s not that hard to see which teams are toast, let’s hear about them already!

well, natenoy feel free to jump in. after all it is the comments thread. The more input the better. Rip away!

Group 4
Group 4 teams pretty much really screwed the pooch with this draft. Barring a division that has all six of these teams together then none of them have much of a chance at a winning record, and contending for the league title is a serious pipe dream. I expect these six teams to be the ones where the rest of us bank up some minutes for our fatigued stars when we face them.

Teams are posted from 24-1, so order within the group is not important unless noted.

24) jakotay - Jason Kidd, Dikembe Mutombo, Gerald Wallace, S. Haywood, Vince Carter, J. Przybilla, Drazen Petrovic
Usage looks out of whack. VC never met a shot he didn’t like or couldn’t miss. As I have personally found out the hard way 100D guys only get you so far in the sim. Petro and Kidd can hit some triples, but they will never get a shot off with VC on the team. May be a rare candidate for the “slow down” offense, but I don’t think there is a gimmick creative enough to make this team competitive.

12) banditone - Shawn Marion, Deron Williams, Wesley Person, Bob McAdoo, Dave Cowens, M. Redd, H. Hairston
This team has a ton of triples but it is very light on rebounding and will not be a leader in fg%. I see this team being a whipping boy for the teams with legitimate bigs, set the D to +2 or +3 then pound it inside and this team will have many a 20-point loss. Threes in the sim are great, but a team needs balance to compete, and this team does not have it.

11) katernberg - Chris Paul, Kobe Bryant, Willis Reed, Josh Smith, Maurice Lucas, Mark Jackson, Marcin Gortat
Kobe, Kobe, Kobe. The sim does not give a team the intangibles that Kobe brings in real life, and that is a problem. I think this team will have many a 43 for 95 from the field game and under 50% efg just does not get it done in the sim. Kobe will go crazy 25-30 times, but the other 50+ games will be a nightmare for this team.

4) xxevilivexx - LeBron James, Terry Porter, Wes Unseld, Ryan Anderson, DeAndre Jordan, B. Rush, B. Price
Evil, please say this with me three times real slow: Lebron is a PG in the sim, Lebron is a PG in the sim, Lebron is a PG in the sim. That “SF” beside his name means NOTHING. You do NOT take a PG in round 2 if you take LBJ with the #3 pick. This team has weaknesses all around and will not be maximizing LBJ’s value at PG. I think evil will have a chance to take LBJ again in the next ncih league.

Comment removed for being too critical and for being deemed a “shot” by others.

2) jethroeg - Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Gary Payton, Kevin Willis, Elvin Hayes, L. Barbosa, J. Havlicek, Paul Pressey
The Kevin Willis pick is a complete disaster. His 48% efg offsets the value he brings on the glass, especially when you already have Kareem. I don’t like your usage mix or the number of bricklayers you put on this team, I’ll be shocked if you approach .500.

1) coachcroft - W. Chamberlain, Walt Frazier, Larry Nance, D. Granger, Rasheed Wallace, Don Buse, Tyrus Thomas
Who is your PG???? Is Wilt going to be your top assist guy? Granger misses too much and the best Nance is not a good usage fit here. I don’t see a team that complements Wilt in any way, shape or form. Sorry, I don’t think Wilt is enough to avoid a likely 60 loss season here.

Group 3
Group 3 teams really have their work cut out for them. If one or two of these teams get lucky with the division draw then they could make the playoffs, but if the divisions have an equal mix then I would be very surprised to see one of these teams near the top of the league. These six teams are unlikely to make the playoffs without an unequal division of the teams.

Teams are posted from 24-1, so order within the group is not important unless noted.

19) vancem - Dwayne Wade, Mel Daniels, Cedric Maxwell, Anfernee Hardaway, Dale Davis, Dan Gadzuric, Jon Barry
I’m not a fan of D Wade as a team’s top player. Sure he plays 100D but he has limited range and misses a ton of shots. I also think rebounding is slightly overrated in these leagues and having 75%+ ast on the floor with an uptempo can balance out a rebounding disadvantage. This team has a smidge of assists, a tad of threes, and great rebounding. I don’t think this is a winning formula, I see this team closer to 50 losses than 50 wins.

18) captainzen - Artis Gilmore, Kevin Mchale, Steve Nash, Grant Hill, Joe Dumars, Tracy McGrady, Kenneth Faried
This team started out as a world beater in efg%, but rapidly pi$$ed it all away by taking not only Grant Hill but ALSO T-Mac. Nash and McHale will NEVER get off a shot with those two gunners on the floor. This team has a lot to like, but the usage is so screwed up I have to put it in the 3rd Group.

14) gunner21 - Hakeem Olajuwon, Oscar Robertson, Bob Lanier, Lamar Odom, Dan Majerle, C. Andersen, Steve Mix
I don’t see enough range or assists to consider this team a legitimate threat. I think the best Hakeem is the $5.7million one, which is a waste in the $52million league. Yes the elite D is here, but you need to balance elite D with premium efg% and I don’t see enough of that here either. This looks like a team that is a perfect fit for Group 3, unlikely to be one of the absolute worst teams, but just as unlikely to be one of the absolute best.

10) ginandjuice - Moses Malone, Elton Brand, Reggie Miller, S. Dalembert, Jose Calderon, R. Rogers, David Lee
There were two teams that I originally placed in Group 2 but had to bump to Group 3 to balance out the Groups with six teams each, this is one of them. Great rebounding team, adequate threes, but I don’t see enough assists to keep this team in games against the elite uptempo teams. It goes back to the theme of balance, and having one non-elite PG is a major deficiency for this squad, one that will keep it out of the playoffs unless it draws a very favorable division.

5) tricky24 - Dennis Rodman, Dirk Nowitzki, Kevin Love, Peja Stojakovic, Mark Price, Paul Milsap, Tim Hardaway
This team falls to Group 3 because I don’t care at all for the usage mix or the massive number of missed shots. Sure this team could hit 55+ boards a game, but it will also hit 55+ missed shots. Not a bottom feeder per se, but a team that will shoot itself out of many a game.

3) tarheel1991 - Michael Jordan, Horace Grant, Bobby Jones, Clifford Ray, Kris Humphries, Kenny Smith, D. West
This team belongs in Group 2, but I had to move one more team to Group 3 and this is the one I picked. I don’t think MJ is surrounded with enough long-range or high assist players to be truly maximized. This team should be ok on D and on the glass but is missing the all-around balance I think a team needs to be considered elite. This is a team that is holding its breath for a favorable division draw, otherwise it will be +/- 5 games of .500.

Group 2
Group 2 teams are the next six teams I believe are most likely to make the playoffs. End up in a weak division (one without a Group 1 team) and one of these teams will be very likely to take a division title. However, these six teams could also miss the playoffs depending on the toughness of their division draw. If the conferences and divisions have an equal mix of the four groups, then these are the six I expect to see in the playoffs with the Group 1 teams.

Teams are posted from 24-1, so order within the group is not important unless noted.

23) natenoy - Ben Wallace, Tim Duncan, Shawn Kemp, Dana Barros, Chris Mullin, Kirk Hinrich, Chuck Person
In a $52million draft Garnett should go before Big Ben and Duncan, so rounds one and two were a misplay. This team will have 75%+ ast% on the floor and its 600 RL threes should translate to over 800 in the sim. However, 100D versions of Kemp and Duncan don’t offer enough boards or efg%, so the 3-headed 100D dream will not happen. Kemp will have to log some 92% eff minutes at SF and rebounding at the guard positions is nonexistent. Team will have enough balance to compete, but is outside of the truly elite group.

22) chris_snid - Jerry Lucas, Bill Walton, Manu Ginobili, Terrell Brandon, Andrei Kirilenko, Mitch Richmond, A.C. Green
Hard to pick against the defending champs, but the Mitch Richmond pick is a head-scratcher. Mitch’s best long-range version comes with too much usage and too many missed shots, so I’ll be interested to see which one is used. This team has about 30 minutes a game of being almost unbeatable, unfortunately we play 48. The talent mix is great, but what happens for the minutes that this group cannot provide is the issue that I think keeps this team out of Group 1.

20) scudmissle - Larry Bird, Julius Erving, Pau Gasol, Troy Murphy, Joakim Noah, Maurice Cheeks, J.R. Smith
A very interesting mix, most of these players do one or two things really great but also have major deficiencies. This team does a good job of addressing one player’s weakness with another’s strengths, but I think this team is a little short of threes from the top usage guys and may not have the premium number of assists required to run the most efficient uptempo. In the right division this team will be in the top-2, but I also see the potential for some matchup issues that could push this team to the 4/5/6 line.

15) 98average (1) - Magic Johnson, Brent Barry, Patrick Ewing, Dan Roundfield, PJ Brown, Rick Barry, Jeff Ruland
This team does not quite have the balance of the other 98average team, and for some reason I just don’t like the “feel” of this squad. Magic will run a good uptempo show and the range is there, but I’m not sold on what Brown or Ruland bring to the table other than just adequate rebounding and the ability to go 2 for 3 from the field each game. This team should still have a winning record, but I think a division title is out of reach unless it’s this team and five teams from the bottom Groups in the same division.

13) dh555 - David Robinson, Marcus Camby, Clyde Drexler, Marques Johnson, Charlie Ward, A. Mourning, J. Tinsley
The lack of a perimeter game keeps this team out of the top Group. Solid D, solid rebounding, adequate assists, high efg% on the interior, but a little light on mid-range and very deficient from the arc. I think the usage mix is also titled a little too heavy to the inside, most opponents will be able to set at -2 or -3 and reduce some of this team’s efg advantage. Still a good team, but this team will not match up well with some of the elite teams.

7) ncih (2) - Kevin Durant, Buck Williams, Swen Nater, Rajon Rondo, Nick Anderson, Omer Asik, Eddie House
There is only room for six teams in Group 1 and this one just missed the cut. I think this team is a little light on assists and I personally have had both Rondo and Anderson and been disappointed with the drop-offs from RL production in the sim. Durant will keep this team in games and the boards are there for when Durant misses, in the right division this team will be near the top, but should be a safe bet for the playoffs regardless of randomness.

Group 1
Group 1 teams are the six teams I believe are the most likely to win their divisions and/or the league title. The random divisions could push some of these teams out of a division title (for example if four of them end up in the same division) but even in a tough division these six teams look to be in good shape for a playoff berth at a minimum.

Teams are posted from 24-1, so order within the group is not important unless noted.

21) mikee1 - Bill Russell, Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Andrew Bynum, Steve Novak, Mark Landsberger, Jason Terry
This team got a steal with Garnett in the 2nd. I look at this team and I see a number of guys I was hoping would last three more spots so I could take them myself. Great inside-outside and midrange mix here with a strong scattering of high efg% and the proper usage mix. May be a little light on ast% to run uptempo, but I see this team as being one I really hope is in the other conference.

17) sappy - Charles Barkley, Chauncey Billups, Robert Parish, Carlos Boozer, Hersey Hawkins, J. Nelson, Larry Smith
I see this team as a legitimate contender. Most of the players complement each other well and this team should have a high efg% and adequate three’s and assists. My only question is which version of Nelson will be used? The 16-minutes Nelson is a candidate to hit the individual penalty with his high usage, better keep Barkley on the floor with him if that’s the one you use.

16) 98average (2) - John Stockton, Scottie Pippen, A. Stoudemire, Bill Bridges, Tree Rollins, Jerry West, B. Daugherty
This team will play solid D and not miss many shots, Amare should thrive with the other players around him. May be a little light on threes to win the title but I’d be shocked if this squad was not a solid division contender.

9) bluenote75 - Dwight Howard, Donyell Marshall, T. Boerwinkle, James Harden, S. Curry, A. Iguodala, A. Biedrins
I REALLY like this team. It has a slight assists issue but the rest of the team more than makes up for that. Howard is a monster given the right players around him and Boerwinkle is the ideal complement (especially with his high assists.) I look for this team to be near the top in efg% and one of the hardest teams to beat given that it looks to have the proper inside/outside as well as usage mix.

8) malone9975 - Shaquille O'Neal, Ray Allen, Serge Ibaka, Emeka Okafor, Kevin Johnson, A. McDyess, Raja Bell
This is another team that looks to be scary good for the sim. Ray is good for 300+ triples, KJ will get Ray and Shaq the ball, the D is there and a 90D Raja or one that buries the three is a perfect way to balance this team out. You can’t go -3 or plus 3 because of the Shaq/Ray mix, and picking the right one to double is a challenge as well. This is the type of team that usually is a matchup nightmare for the rest of us, I’d be very surprised if this team is not near the top.

6) ncih (1) - Karl Malone, T. Chandler, M. Blaylock, Derek Harper, R. Tomjanovich, Johnny Green, JaVale McGee
The Mailman definitely delivers in the sim. Chandler is the perfect player to go with him and Mookie/Harper offer a solid D, long-range shooting adequate boarding backcourt. I like the balance of this team. I also like the other rotation guys and think they all bring some unique specialty

h.s. football in texas rocks! florida, texas and michigan have great, great leagues and rivalries, but the talent levels in florida and texas are second to none. i envy you! china thinks football is played with a round ball with men in shorts... sheesh. i really miss college football. i taught at the university of florida for 8 years before coming to china. gainesville, on saturday afternoons in the "swamp", or, even better, night games, were perhaps some of the best times in my life. saw emmit smith, jevon "the freak" kearse, oh, the list is too long.

remember one time, steve spurrier giving his press conference after florida had defeated georgia, 66-16, a journalist asked him, "steve, with a 50 point lead, you were still throwing the ball at the end of the game. could you tell us why you felt necessary to try and run up the score?" spurrier gave him a glassy, cold stare, then said, "just callin' plays... ju' callin' plays." haha  

Chris,

Nice to see another Dallas area person on WIS!!

I live in SE Dallas by Mesquite.