I am an uptempo fool.  I can't help myself.  

I struggle to know what to do about uptempo with my FB team.

Well I got way behind on this thread already over the weekend, so let me try to catch up.

Game 2:  #6 J&W (1-0) at Washington(MO) (0-1), line J&W by 56

With a first year coach and a sub-500 overall rating, I was expecting a fairly easy game..and the ridiculous line reflects that.  WU doesn't have any real Per threats, so I even considered going -3.  Ultimately I stuck with -2 because I think the more you go away from 0, the more you ramp up the variance in general.  And that's not something I want to do as a heavy favorite.

Defense won the day for the Wildcats.  WU was held to 33% from the floor with a frustrating 2 ast and 24 TOs.  No player scored more than 7 points for WU.  Meanwhile Tolley posted a solid 20 points with Tarter, Pabst, and Persaud also contributing double figures.

Game 3:  #8 J&W (2-0) at #1 Hardin-Simmons (2-0), line H-S by 3

A big time early showdown, and I hate that I'm just now writing about it.  We played the same normal tempo and -2 defense.  I definitely considered slowdown because H-S has much better Reb and ST than JW, but I just like my bench a lot and hate to limit their minutes (they ultimately outscored H-S's bench 24-15).  Plus H-S ended up running slowdown themselves, so that helped some with the Reb.

Positioning is another move I thought a lot about here.  H-S has several high Per ratings and was coming off a 14/33 game from 3 pt land.  I guess I'm an optimist, because I just keep refusing to play to the Per until I get burned by it. 

I increased my PG Fuson's distro slightly since he was matched up against H-S's weakest defender, but it seemed to be a non-factor as he didn't really take more shots.  That always frustrates me when I make a specific move like that and it has no impact, or sometimes even does the opposite!

The game was once again all about defense.  H-S shot 35% overall and 8-25 (32%) from 3.  I'd play -2 every time if you told me that's how the 3s would turn out.  5 ast and 20 TOs are a good reflection of the offensive struggles.  H-S did hold a good edge on the glass, but didn't convert many 2nd chances (10-7 for JW in SCP).  1st team A-A Jerry Wright put up a hard fought 14 and 10 in the loss.  Marc Tolley once again led the way for J&W with 18.  It was a pretty unremarkable offensive night, though, as H-S plays some good defense as well.  Huge statement game for the Wildcats, though.

Game 4:  #4 J&W (3-0) vs #3 Louisiana (3-0), line J&W by 1

2nd consecutive night for a highly ranked clash, but I didn't really think Louisiana matched up well here.  I think to beat this J&W team you need to be great at Reb to take advantage of our weakness there..and you need great defense to turn it into a 50-48 game.  We don't have dynamite offense, but we can get it done against non-elite defense.

LA does have a 99 Per shooter, who was wisely moved to PG for this game to match up against Fuson instead of Tolley.  That definitely helped him individually, but he probably needed a higher distro for that to have a bigger impact.  LA's Jackson, Brown, and Shropshire ended up combining for a respectable 14/33 and 37 points.  The problem is everyone else combined for 4/22 and 11 points.  I'm a little surprised A-A candidate Richard Brown didn't do better matched up against true FR Jay Bird.  Not that 12 and 9 is bad, but I would've expected more.

It was reasonably close at the half, 31-25, but J&W blitzed the 2nd half to win comfortably.  Roy Black had 18 off the bench, Tolley had his usual 17, and Tarter had a solid 13 and 8 at C.  I was feeling pretty good about making another title run after these last two games.

Game 5:  #3 J&W (4-0) at #21 Calvin (3-1), line J&W by 7

On paper this looked pretty similar to the Louisiana matchup to me.  Calvin has somewhat mediocre defense (granted my standards for that are a little out of whack!) and probably even worse Reb than J&W.  Maybe the difference that I underestimated is the terrific BH/P combo of Bell and Beus.  Bell is a weak defender, but 92 Spd with 90/86 BH/P will go a long way.  Calvin came in shooting very few 3s, so I had no concerns at all with a -2 defense.

It was a good competitive 1st half, with JW leading 38-36 and Tolley pacing the way with 18 points.  But the 2nd half was just an offensive disaster for JW as we shot a cool 7/27 from the floor and 1/9 on 3s.  Meanwhile Calvin shot 11/23 in the 2nd half and made enough FTs down the stretch to hold on for the 69-65 win.  No one really stood out for Calvin, but they became the first team to shoot over 40% against JW this season.

I have to say this one really surprised me.  I expected to drop some games exactly like this, with an off-night offensively, but not immediately after two convincing wins over quality teams.  Tolley shooting 7/19 (5/15 on 3s) against a guy with 30 Ath, 92 Spd, 25 Def is a head scratcher..I expect him to light up defense like that.  But make no mistake, Calvin is a quality team and I'm glad they gave us a little wake up call now instead of in the NT.

Game 6:  #8 J&W (4-1) vs Susquehanna (3-2), line J&W by 8

Looking to rebound from a loss against a multiple NT champion is never really what you want.  SU has fairly solid defense and rebounding, but not much offensive firepower.  The guards overall are a step slow, with no one over 70 Spd.  I'm happy to play -2 again.

The game was extremely competitive, with JW leading 40-30 at the half and hanging on for the 66-54 win.  SU missed a FT around the 5 min mark that would have tied it at 53, but they would get outscored 13-2 down the stretch.  Roy Black was the only player on either team in double figures, with 15, and Marc Tolley struggled for the 2nd straight game with only 9 points on 3-12 shooting. 

I'm surprised again that Tolley struggled.  This game he was guarded in the Press by a Soph with 56/63/57 Ath/Spd/Def and B IQ.  While that's certainly not a bad defender, I don't think he has any business shutting down a SR like Tolley. 

But that's what I worry about with this team, when Tolley has an off night, who else can score points for us?  Soon the answer to that question will be Travis Fuson.  He's improved 7 points in Per now, up to 74, and still shows High potential.  Roy Black has contributed well off the bench and still has High in LP (42).  Allen Woods, the uber-defensive SF, still has High in Per (39).  I think we'll be a much tougher team by the end of the season, lots of room to grow with this bunch.

"But that's what I worry about with this team, when Tolley has an off night, who else can score points for us?  Soon the answer to that question will be Travis Fuson.  He's improved 7 points in Per now, up to 74, and still shows High potential.  Roy Black has contributed well off the bench and still has High in LP (42).  Allen Woods, the uber-defensive SF, still has High in Per (39).  I think we'll be a much tougher team by the end of the season, lots of room to grow with this bunch."

Groan.

Posted by brianxavier on 9/12/2012 2:55:00 PM (view original):

I'm surprised again that Tolley struggled.  This game he was guarded in the Press by a Soph with 56/63/57 Ath/Spd/Def and B IQ.  While that's certainly not a bad defender, I don't think he has any business shutting down a SR like Tolley.  

Since he was running press, isn't safe to assume that player wasn't always on Tolley?  Plus with sub patterns, he could have been guarded by another guy (probably worse, granted).  FWIW, one of his shots was a full court bomb.... just saying....

Fair points, I just expect a lot out of him and don't like to see him struggle.  It obviously makes the most sense to compare individual defenders in M2M, but personally I think of Press as just M2M with DT always on everyone.  So I would say the SG is mostly guarded by the other SG, with a DT from some other player.  But really you're right and it's a weak argument for me to be making.

Game 7:  #6 J&W (5-1) at #20 Wentworth Tech (4-2), line J&W by 3

Well this is what I call drawing the short stick.  We were dominated in just about every phase of the game and were never really in it.  Their Per shooting really doesn't scare me, but they shot a healthy 7/15 on 3s while shooting 54% on 2s against our -2 defense.  They also crushed us on the glass, held their own in the TO battle, and decimated us at the FT line.  If you include our two missed 1 and 1s, we shot a putrid 9/23 at the charity stripe.  That's one of the worst shooting displays I've seen from my teams.  Both teams shot better from 2 and 3 point range than JW shot from the FT line.  Yuck.

I did increase Fuson's distro for this game and we shot a few more 3s than we have been.  We actually shot reasonably well from the floor, just not enough to keep up with WT's 95 points.  Without trying to look it up, I would guess that's the most points we've given up in several seasons.  52.5% shooting is definitely one of the best over that time too.  Steven Ellington had a A-A type game against the stout defense of Chester Tarter..20 points, 11 boards, 4 blocks is getting it done.

Our bench was outscored 35 to 21, which makes me think slowdown might've been a good choice for this one.  I probably underestimated how good WT is.  We also lost 22-9 in SCP, 24-16 in POT, 15-9 in FBP, 34-26 on PIP.  Basically we lost at everything.  I do think this result was a bit of an outlier, but it still shows we need to improve before the NT.

Game 8:  #14 J&W (5-2) at Emory (2-5), line J&W by 20

Games like this annoy me.  I scheduled a game against a human coach with a good, improving track record..and it ends up being a simmy game when they leave for D2.  I can't blame the individual coach for wanting to move up and I'm not mad at him personally, but I can't stand when I end up with crap games because of that.  And I just mean "crap" in the sense that they're 2-6 and it will probably get worse.  Really bad for the ol RPI.

I used the opportunity to give Eric Pabst a spot start at SF.  His WE is still mediocre as a Soph, so I want to start him whenever possible.  I'm surprised we didn't shoot a little better against their 2-3 zone (0)..8/24 on 3s is underwhelming.  Fuson might not quite be ready for such a high distro.  Although to be fair Johnson and Bird do make for a pretty strong perimeter defense.

Nothing really remarkable about the game.  JW held a small to medium sized lead for most of the game and won 66-51.  Emory had 3 ast to 21 TOs, which is what I like to see.  If we'd shot a little better, it would have been more like the beatdown I expected from this game.

Game 9:  #15 J&W (6-2) at Whittier (5-3), line J&W by 3

Despite having 42 team Per, I had no concerns about Whittier's Per shooting.  They have several guys in the 60s, but no one that looked capable of having a big game against our defense.

I put Allen Woods back in the starting lineup at SF after getting Pabst the start against Emory, and that went a long way.  Whittier's overwhelming #1 scoring option this season has been their starting SF (listed as SG) Heath Stephens.  He scored 25, but only shot 9/25 from the floor and had 4 TOs.  When the opposing SF has 90/70/94 Ath/Spd/Def, that has to make it tough for him.  I'm a little surprised he shoots so much to be honest.  He looks like about a 10-12 ppg player to me because he doesn't have enough Spd to take advantage of the 60s Per.

JW ended up cruising comfortably in the 2nd half behind 21 from Marc Tolley and a well-rounded 31 points from the bench.  Whittier struggled to find a rhythm on offense and shot 35% overall (1/6 on 3s) with 8 ast and 21 TOs.

Game 10:  #11 J&W (7-2, RPI 5) vs Eureka (6-3, RPI 46), line J&W by 5

Another night where I had no concerns with the Per game, and Eureka barely attempts any 3s.  The more I stick with the -2, the more I think it's just the best setting.  Most teams don't have the shooters to make me change it, and even when they do, I can usually just get by with a -1.

Eureka is a rare team that plays a combo Press/Zone.  That used to be a favorite of mine back in the day before the new engine.  I don't really have a feel for the Zone anymore, but I always thought those two complemented each other nicely.  Eureka's 40 team Spd probably isn't ideal for running it, as Spd is pretty important to both defenses.  And having only 4 guards, 1 of which is an upperclassman, doesn't bode well for any type of Press.  The 54 team Def absolutely helps though.

Eureka ran uptempo, perhaps to try to capitalize on their edge in Reb, but I don't think that was a good idea.  I would absolutely never run uptempo against this JW defense unless it was with a major D1 team.  Eureka only slightly won the battle on the glass and paid for it with 29 TOs and a 36-9 edge for JW in POT.  We jumped out to a big lead early, 47-25 at the half, and cruised through the final half.  Tolley had a nice game against the Zone, 26 points, 5 reb, 4 stl, 3 ast.  Eureka actually tied us in bench points with 22 from backup SF Gregory Hampton, but their starters only combined for 30 points.

Game 11:  #7 J&W (8-2, RPI 5) vs Daniel Webster (3-7, RPI 269), line J&W by 53

The Wildcats kicked off conference play in the GNE with a pretty overmatched Danny Web team.  They're extremely young at the moment and have team averages in the 30s for nearly everything, so I definitely wanted to spread around some PT in this one.  Pabst got his 2nd start of the season at SF, and FR Holmes and Bird manned the frontcourt.  All three are guys with lowish WE that need as many starts as possible.

JW was just too much as we jumped out to a 52-27 halftime lead and coasted the rest of the way.  DW took a ton of 3s, half their shots from the floor, but I'm happy to let them take as many as they want.  Tolley led all scorers with 21 points and the JW bench contributed a whopping 51 points (granted some of them were normal starters).  Interesting that DW ran uptempo in this one.  That seems kinda suicidal to me.

Another off night coming up tonight for JW, followed by the always important game at Emmanuel.  They're an uncharacteristic 5-6 so far, but with a 32 RPI.