All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > The curse of high BB + High HR hitters
10/10/2012 3:34 PM
Here's 19 Cravath's line from one of my current OL teams:  In only 200 ABs, he's hitting .387, with 19 doubles, 4 triples, and 14 HRs with a .512 obp, a .734 slg. pct. and a 1.246 ops.  Like I said...he's a beast in OLs!!!!!
10/11/2012 6:54 AM
Yes, but that is a normalization play.

I'm looking more for players who come from high HR years, and have high OBP. 
10/11/2012 10:31 PM (edited)
Like this?

In a 16-team progressive, which does have a heavy anti-tanking emphasis and limited keepers (which matters here because there is no incentive for teams to have weak pitching and have no reason not to fill out their rosters with decent current-season pitchers):

Mark McGwire 1998 (Robison HR -1/2 1B-1 2B 0 3B 0)

  Real Life Progressive
OBP .470 .457
HR 70 83
BB 162 155
IBB 28 8
SLG .752 .787
OPS 1.222 1.244

10/12/2012 8:54 AM
Single season? 

I ask because the answer is pushing me towards believing the problem is with the normalization logic>
10/12/2012 1:26 PM
Single-season progressive? Yes. I think the setup (draft order set by salary, limited keepers, 16 teams) ends up producing about as realistic a set of batter vs. pitcher as is likely in the sim. Park factors at other 7 places in the NL average to HRLF 1, HR RF 0.86, 1B 0.29, 2B 0.71, 3B 0.00. His Advanced stats show HR/100AB 13.75, HR/100AB #11, so even with lots of games in slight HR parks, I'd have expected his HR to be down, not up. 125 of the season's games were played Live.
10/12/2012 6:58 PM
I'm in a single-season progressive that uses a mixed player pool, so we have players from all 1885-2012, but the average team salary is between $75-80m.

Here are a few examples:

1956 Mickey Mantle - Briggs Stadium (HR LF/RF:2/2 1B:-1 2B:-1 3B:0):

               Real Life     Progressive
PA              686              716
AB              533             598
BB              112             113
AVG           .353             .358
OBP           .464            .459
SLG           .705             .689
HR              52               56
HR/100       9.76            9.37

1941 Ted Williams - Minute Maid Park (HR LF/RF:1/1 1B:0 2B:0 3B:1):

               Real Life     Progressive
PA              636              751
AB              456             586
BB              145             165
AVG           .401             .374
OBP           .551            .512
SLG           .735             .642
HR              37               39
HR/100       8.11            6.65

1942 Ted Williams - Minute Maid Park (HR LF/RF:1/1 1B:0 2B:0 3B:1):

               Real Life     Progressive
PA              716              761
AB              522             598
BB              145             146
AVG           .356             .365
OBP           .499            .489
SLG           .648             .687
HR              36               50
HR/100       6.90            8.36

As you can see, with the exception of Williams having his HR/100 numbers for RL & sim seem to reverse from the two seasons, the rest of the stats are right around what you'd expect from RL, and I'd wager Williams '41 HR deficit was caused more by his underperforming in AVG than anything else, and his HR overperformance in '42 was caused by his stadium and pitching competition.
10/12/2012 7:08 PM
And, for the record, these were some of the pitchers during those three seasons:

Name SN G GS CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA
Joss, Addie 1904 40 37 0 0 15 8 0 0 242.00 221 70 55 0 52 73 .241 .287 .297 1.13 2.05
Brunet, George 1965 81 9 0 0 10 3 4 5 179.00 160 59 50 4 68 123 .236 .307 .304 1.27 2.51
Toney, Fred 1917 54 54 14 5 31 14 0 0 403.33 388 161 120 3 103 150 .248 .297 .308 1.22 2.68
Horlen, Joe 1966 41 41 0 0 19 10 0 0 244.33 216 81 76 17 64 132 .235 .291 .343 1.15 2.80
Wood, Joe 1911 50 45 4 1 20 13 0 0 339.00 314 120 106 6 93 213 .241 .295 .307 1.20 2.81
Wellemeyer, Todd 2008 40 33 1 0 19 7 2 2 220.00 190 79 71 14 59 123 .231 .290 .335 1.13 2.90
Kilroy, Matt 1887 86 86 61 7 53 26 0 0 734.67 725 315 240 12 195 191 .251 .302 .319 1.25 2.94
Gonzalez, Gio 2010 41 41 0 0 17 8 0 0 239.00 195 86 79 19 100 162 .221 .302 .313 1.23 2.97

Joss, Addie 1906 46 46 7 2 28 9 0 0 344.33 310 114 95 6 66 93 .235 .277 .291 1.09 2.48
Roberts, Robin 1953 54 54 13 5 24 15 0 0 414.67 389 157 121 42 68 239 .239 .273 .357 1.10 2.63
Kilroy, Matt 1889 81 81 43 13 45 22 0 0 664.00 648 244 199 13 173 282 .251 .300 .318 1.24 2.70
Marichal, Juan 1966 49 49 15 3 25 13 0 0 374.33 344 123 114 29 44 224 .240 .268 .346 1.04 2.74
Perritt, Pol 1918 50 50 3 2 21 16 0 0 318.00 301 107 99 16 75 105 .252 .299 .332 1.18 2.80
Jones, Randy 1975 41 41 7 2 17 13 0 0 299.67 275 111 95 19 60 85 .239 .281 .327 1.12 2.85
Hudson, Nat 1888 58 54 27 3 28 17 0 0 437.33 419 178 147 16 83 128 .246 .281 .327 1.15 3.03
Mulholland, Terry 1993 36 36 0 0 15 9 0 0 240.33 229 96 81 20 41 102 .249 .284 .377 1.12 3.03
Mussina, Mike 1996 41 41 2 0 16 9 0 0 283.00 278 106 97 27 70 193 .253 .299 .386 1.23 3.08
Willis, Vic 1902 80 80 6 3 30 25 0 0 548.00 583 254 192 17 156 229 .267 .319 .340 1.35 3.15
Lee, Cliff 2009 40 40 2 1 20 9 0 0 263.67 279 113 93 17 36 159 .267 .290 .375 1.19 3.17
Verlander, Justin 2010 34 34 7 2 14 14 0 0 255.67 219 103 94 8 89 192 .229 .302 .299 1.20 3.31
Martinez, Pedro 1997 43 43 0 0 16 9 0 0 280.00 210 77 65 15 71 310 .206 .267 .290 1.00 2.09
Wright, Clyde 1971 43 41 9 2 26 9 0 0 310.67 260 95 90 15 74 135 .224 .277 .302 1.08 2.61
Horlen, Joe 1967 40 39 8 5 17 10 0 0 296.67 275 106 87 21 59 101 .241 .285 .349 1.13 2.64
Marichal, Juan 1965 44 44 20 6 30 13 0 0 356.33 278 119 108 37 61 247 .210 .251 .326 0.95 2.73
Joss, Addie 1905 56 55 0 0 26 15 0 0 323.33 313 115 100 10 58 112 .250 .287 .318 1.15 2.78
Wainwright, Adam 2010 41 41 0 0 18 7 0 0 255.33 234 98 87 13 57 196 .238 .286 .326 1.14 3.07
Toney, Fred 1918 40 40 6 4 25 5 0 0 303.67 305 135 104 9 67 95 .255 .299 .332 1.23 3.08
Pittinger, Togie 1901 54 54 2 2 22 14 0 0 340.33 328 144 117 16 98 116 .250 .305 .342 1.25 3.09
Kilroy, Matt 1888 55 55 25 5 31 14 0 0 456.33 486 197 157 11 120 124 .270 .318 .331 1.33 3.10
Hoyt, Waite 1921 49 49 0 0 20 12 0 0 287.33 297 110 100 3 87 154 .265 .316 .353 1.34 3.13
Brown, Kevin 1989 33 32 4 1 11 16 0 0 232.67 204 97 81 8 94 106 .233 .307 .303 1.28 3.13
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