Please tell me where I stand with this recruit...

1/9/13 11:00 a.m. - Coach, you've sold me on XXXXXXXX.! Unless something changes between now and the signing period, you can count on me playing for you next season.

1/9/13 8:00 p.m. - Coach, I just can't say yes right now...I'm still supposed to take a campus visit of another school. I should know more after that.

Those are the last two scholarship messages I have received. I think this means that I am slightly ahead, does it not?  Any assistance is appreciated.

I think it means you are just barely ahead, but FSS will say the kid is struggling.  But heck if I know.

1/9/13 8:00 p.m. - Coach, I just can't say yes right now...I'm still supposed to take a campus visit of another school. I should know more after that.

slightly BEHIND

I guess I will find out at 11 a.m. It better be ahead because I have spent a lot of money on a guy vs. a non Big 6 opponent and I don't feasibly see how he could have matched my spending with all the extra recruiting money I got in a big 6 conference.

I'm with iguana in this being the slightly behind message. Anything with "can't say yes" means slightly behind to me. 

If that is the case I somehow managed to lose a recruit to a team with 3 openings when I had 6 openings of scholly money and over $30,000 extra in recruiting money. I am going to bang my head against the wall quite a bit.

I don't like to comment on ongoing battles but what the heck, looks like you are all in anyways. On paper this looks like a no brainer for you but he does have 1/3 of a letter in prestige difference (possibly closer to 2/3), not to mention, a pretty major distance advantage where you have to spend 30% more per HV. You should be expecting to outspend him by at least 50% ($$ amount) to win this one. 

I've gotten this exact order of messages before when involved in a battle, and this is how I see it:

At 11 a.m., you were ahead - maybe slightly, maybe more.

Sometime between the 5 p.m. and 8 p.m. cycles, your "battle opponent" put in enough effort to put you slightly behind. That's why you got that message at 8 p.m. (you'd have gotten it earlier if he'd put the effort in during a previous cycle).

If you don't (or can't) put in any more effort, you should expect to lose this battle - I've never won a battle when I got this message unless I put in more effort and got another message indicating the situation had changed to where I was ahead again.

Well folks, get ready for an angry outburst in 13 minutes...

I think it is likely that the other guy poured in up to 100 HV.  Spending 30k on that guy seems more than likely for him.

I have spent over $53,000 with start, guaranteed minutes. He didn't sign at 11 a.m. cycle

How many HV and CV?    

That looks like about 50 CV's to me.  If you puured in 20 ST, that doesn't help though.

He had ~65k to spend, it's feasible the first guy and scouting cost him around 10k, leaving him around 55k.  Most people have a little waste so your looking at a guy with up to 50k to spend on this player.  He's gonna crush 50 CV.

If he was inefficient, not willing to go all in, or spent more before this battle you have a chance but  it doesn't look good.

Yea, I am now seeing that I maybe spent a little too much screwing around with other recruits and should have focused on the top priority...

I also made a rookie mistake and was sending HV instead of CV's.... *I guess I got too excited being in a Big 6 conference and my common sense went out the window*

Still hasn't signed as of 2 p.m. cycle