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1/30/2013 9:53 AM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

Posted by gregsimon on 1/30/2013 9:04:00 AM (view original):
In most worlds I've played in, trade deadline value is as good as FA signing period value.

I'd understand if it was for a guy in the last year of his contract, who has questionable signability or something, but otherwise why would that be the case in your experience Mike?

First, prying away prospects is virtually impossible. At least those of similar value. IMO, it's not good business to give up a comparable 20 y/o for a 27 y/o.
Second, someone on the edge of the playoff picture isn't going to want to give up his future for an outside shot at making the playoffs.
Third, someone locked into the playoffs tends to believe they're "good enough" and don't want to deal prospects.

The only market is the guy who thinks he has the 2nd/3rd best team and feels a specific player will put him over the top. Unfortunately, a lot of times, this owner has nothing in the minors because he's been playing the high payroll, "let someone else develop players" game.

1/30/2013 9:58 AM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

Also, in this particular case, Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Victor Manuel is 31 and has lost a point in ratings already this season. He's owed 20m for the next three seasons and 18.5m in the 4th. Not many teams in contention have 20m in free payroll for the next season.

1/30/2013 10:33 AM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

I checked. My 2nd season cap space is 21m, 3m, 6m for my three active teams. FA hasn't started in the 4th and I have 31m. A couple of FA signings will put me under 20m in that one. The market is very limited for a player like Manuel.

1/30/2013 11:09 AM

bglick

Game Rating: Prospect Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 72 (0)

HBD - 4

You must have a small payroll then. My 5th season payroll easily has space for a player like him.

1/30/2013 11:44 AM

mchalesarmy

Game Rating: Pro Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 698 (0)

HBD - 16

I think by the time the trade deadline arrives, his contract value is roughly 1/3. So you only need a team to have about 7Mil available. Plus you add 5M and now you're only 2M away from a deal with an owner who is already at the limit of his cap. If he has ANY cap space that deal isn't hard to pull off. Also remember this season he is only making 14.5, so now you are talking 5M at the deadline which can be 100% covered via cash.

Now the 4th season at 20M might be a bigger problem in the trade screen, but ultimately I'd think you could pull it off with over half the league. Just need to hope the guy who wants him is in the half that can afford him.

Mike does make a really good point about the fact that many teams who are 2nd or 3rd best and feel they need that one impact bat may not have much at all on the farm to offer for him.

In one of my worlds we just had a team who was right on the cusp, with a CY Young caliber P1, a great lead-off man and a great Power bat, who felt he wanted one more great bat to put him over the top. He gave up some really good players including a pretty solid P prospect. Of course that guy was only making 9M, so yeah it gets tougher with the 20M guys.

I'll repeat my stance on only moving him if you get a REALLY nice package for him, and if by the deadline you are really short of expectations, because I believe the guy will be productive throughout the life of the contract, even though he is already beginning to decline. Increase your training budget and with that high of a make-up his decline shouldn't be devastating.

1/30/2013 11:51 AM

mchalesarmy

Game Rating: Pro Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 698 (0)

HBD - 16

IOW if you are only a couple of moves away from contending next season or even two seasons from now, then he is definitely worth keeping around. If, however, even after acquiring your 4 type As, your team is struggling to stay above .500 when the deadline gets near, yeah I'd think about trying to fill a few spots by trading him.

1/30/2013 12:13 PM

bglick

Game Rating: Prospect Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 72 (0)

HBD - 4

These are the 4 type A's I acquired. The 2 pitchers were signed after the main part of free agency and even though they were type A's, they aren't that great. I only signed them since I was only giving up 4th and 5th round picks for them. I'm not sure how close to contending I am. Really worried about my starting pitching..

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3454310

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2181867

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2845898

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1729255

1/30/2013 12:19 PM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

No, mchale, the 2nd season of his deal is 20m. You need the full amount to cover future seasons.

My payrolls are between 88m and 120m. 120m is the only one with 20m+ available in the next season.

1/30/2013 12:29 PM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

At the end of the day, you only need one owner who has cap room, is interested and will give up value. My main point is, if you're determined to move him, start shopping him now. Waiting til the deadline decreases the odds that you'll find value.

1/30/2013 12:44 PM

mchalesarmy

Game Rating: Pro Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 698 (0)

HBD - 16

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/30/2013 12:19:00 PM (view original):
No, mchale, the 2nd season of his deal is 20m. You need the full amount to cover future seasons.

My payrolls are between 88m and 120m. 120m is the only one with 20m+ available in the next season.

Yeah, I was referring to the decrease in available budget each season in the trade screen. I am running about a 84M payroll and my S4 "available budget" in the trade window is only 50ish, so taking on 20M might be a problem. But my S2 room is roughly 26M, followed by 22 in S3, and then 30+ in S4, so I could take the salary, but I get what you're saying.

1/30/2013 12:46 PM

mchalesarmy

Game Rating: Pro Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 698 (0)

HBD - 16

Posted by MikeT23 on 1/30/2013 12:29:00 PM (view original):
At the end of the day, you only need one owner who has cap room, is interested and will give up value. My main point is, if you're determined to move him, start shopping him now. Waiting til the deadline decreases the odds that you'll find value.

But wouldn't it be easier, monetarily, for a team to take him at 5M rather than 14M?

I mean obviously there is no harm in seeing what the market will bear for him now, but I think more teams could afford him the nearer to the deadline you are.

1/30/2013 12:49 PM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

It will be easier but more teams fall out of contention as the season progresses. That decreases the options.

For me, I'll start a season all gung ho with "This is my year!!" 50 games in the season, I'm 23-27 and 9 games out out of first. Unless I have a buttload of guys underperforming previous seasons, I'm not giving up prospects for a veteran at that point.

1/30/2013 12:53 PM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

In the case of Manual, he's really a 1B/LF ideally suited to be a GG-quality 1B. He lost 4 points in power in the off-season. I just don't see the value in paying a declining 1B 78.5m over the next 4 seasons. Maybe a guy with 20m in training believes he can slow the decline(it would) but that limits the options even more.

I just don't think he's going to be an easy guy to move. I'd probably try to build around him. Starting with finding an all-glove SS and moving current players to defensive positions that suit them better.

1/30/2013 12:55 PM

mchalesarmy

Game Rating: Pro Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 698 (0)

HBD - 16

Posted by bglick on 1/30/2013 12:13:00 PM (view original):
These are the 4 type A's I acquired. The 2 pitchers were signed after the main part of free agency and even though they were type A's, they aren't that great. I only signed them since I was only giving up 4th and 5th round picks for them. I'm not sure how close to contending I am. Really worried about my starting pitching..

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=3454310

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2181867

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=2845898

http://whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx?pid=1729255

I think Sanchez is a good value for 1M. He;s not stellar, but he should be above average and can throw a lot of innings. Well worth 1M imo.
Duckworth is pretty good, although I wouldn't use him as a closer, as he is probably your best RP and I'd want him pitching as many high leverage innings as possible.

Many owners don't use a closer at all, for this very reason.

1/30/2013 1:07 PM

MikeT23

Game Rating: Hall of Famer Forum Rating: Prospect

Posts: 25463 (14)

MLB - 85 NHL - 1 HD - 26 GD - 1 HBD - 117

Here's how I'd play them defensively:

Jimmie Burns	RF
Kenny Boone	CF
Wilfredo Alfonzo	LF
Victor Manuel	1B
Dave Alston	LF/1B
Peter Poole	3B
Ryan Garko	2B
Ronnie Parrish
Gorkys Diaz	RF
D'Angelo Carrasco
Carlton Oliver
Arthur Hahn	C
Danys James

Garko will be OK at 2B. You need a SS.

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