All Forums > Hardball Dynasty Baseball > Hardball Dynasty > Why is this guy declining?
2/21/2013 6:52 PM
Posted by isack24 on 2/21/2013 4:54:00 PM (view original):
Here's what I got:

Hi Isaac,

Every player has a peak age and some player's decline in ratings faster than others. Unfortunately, it look like this player is past his peak and is starting to decline.
Sounds like a typical low level support type of answer.  You could ask them to kick it upstairs, based on the fact that it's something that's never been seen before.
2/21/2013 6:57 PM
I think it's more probable that it's never been noticed before (more probable is that is has been noticed, but forgotten about or not mentioned).
2/21/2013 7:06 PM
If it hadn't happened to a player who was an 84 OA, it might have gone unnoticed.
2/21/2013 8:14 PM
Yeah, that's kind of my thought. It seemed odd, but it could just be a perfect storm of really good player + young age peak + max decline. 

But when I sit back and really think, what if I had $10M in training and he had a 50 makeup? Would he have dropped 3 or 4 points? That certainly would have been noticed and addressed before, right?
2/21/2013 8:16 PM
Maybe those things have nothing to do with a player peaking early.
2/21/2013 8:25 PM
From what I've read, the consensus is that you can't tell when a prospect stops progressing... age 22, 23, 24?  It's a random aspect.  This then would seem to be the back end of that.  The player literally got the short end of the stick.  Actually isack, I would say it's a good thing you noticed it early because at least you can now plan around him declining earlier than expected.

2/21/2013 10:19 PM
Posted by hypnotoad on 2/21/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Maybe those things have nothing to do with a player peaking early.
Not sure they do, but my understanding is that they have to do with rate of decline.
2/21/2013 11:37 PM
It stinks, but it happened to a 29 year-old I just traded for last season, too.  It seems it's just part of the game:

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx
2/22/2013 6:41 AM
Posted by isack24 on 2/21/2013 10:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by hypnotoad on 2/21/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Maybe those things have nothing to do with a player peaking early.
Not sure they do, but my understanding is that they have to do with rate of decline.
With the rate maybe, but what about when the decline starts? They may have nothing to do with one another.
2/22/2013 7:10 AM
Posted by damag on 2/21/2013 7:06:00 PM (view original):
If it hadn't happened to a player who was an 84 OA, it might have gone unnoticed.
I'm definitely buying this today.

I thought "Horseshit" when I first read it.   Yet, when I decided to check a high range, inconsequential 29 y/o player this AM, the first one I checked qualified.

Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Nick Hamilton

2/22/2013 7:47 AM
Yeah, I didn't just pull that out of my ***.  When isack brought this up I kinda thought "I've seen that happen before."  One of my players somewhere, I was looking over his card and there was a drop in ratings that looked kind of random and unexpected.  From playing the soccer sim I was used to seeing player ratings change in unexpected ways, so I didn't think much of it.  And yeah, the player was so inconsequential that it didn't bother me at all.  A career minor leaguer.  Can't even remember who now.

Since I don't even have an 84 OA major leaguer on my team, I'd probably have reacted more strongly had I seen it in one of my core players, right?

 

 

2/22/2013 8:08 AM
It's been my contention that we only recall bad things happening(big FA signing stinking it up, injury to high health player, etc, etc) so, yes, you'd probably know exactly which player it happened to if he was meaningful.
2/22/2013 9:03 AM
Posted by hypnotoad on 2/22/2013 6:41:00 AM (view original):
Posted by isack24 on 2/21/2013 10:19:00 PM (view original):
Posted by hypnotoad on 2/21/2013 8:16:00 PM (view original):
Maybe those things have nothing to do with a player peaking early.
Not sure they do, but my understanding is that they have to do with rate of decline.
With the rate maybe, but what about when the decline starts? They may have nothing to do with one another.
Yeah, I'm sure you're right about that. At least that's what CS seems to be telling me.

I'm just wondering how big the decline would have been had I not been optimally set up to protect against a big decline.
2/22/2013 10:40 AM
I saw the same drop off with Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Lawrence Mack at age 27. More minor drop offs at 28 and 31. 14 training the season before his first decline, 18 the season of his first decline, 20 every season after that.
2/22/2013 10:59 AM
Found a guy who is regressing AND progressing at the same time. (see arm accuracy)

whatifsports.com/HBD/Pages/Popups/PlayerProfile.aspx


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