Posted by katzphang88 on 2/24/2013 8:48:00 PM (view original):
Posted by grindi on 2/24/2013 8:09:00 PM (view original):This is what I have talking about! My analysis reveals that each option that the sim can choose to simulate overlaps all the other options and produces no clear result. It may be slightly skewed towards one choice or the other, but it still comes down to the JConte pattern of decison making. I also like all the new features, but once again, all those are geared to get a player match-up advantage, which the engine can take away with a "percentages" decision call. It may seem hard to determine now looking at DIII vs DIII, but I have simmed and analyzed D1A, D1AA against DIII and the results are just as hazey. The effect of offense being much better than the defense should produce an offensive outcome everytime. When they are close I see that give and take could occur. But an offensive advantage of 50 - 25 should not produce a broken tackle one play and a strong tackle the next. Blend the middle ranges, but make the end ranges a done deal.
Befor eanyone thinks I am totally down on the game let me assure you I am not. I especially like choosing my Blitz frequency and being able to dhoose who does it. I like being able to assign who catches or runs the ball and where. I think there is a lot of good happening here. What bothers me is the test part shows that the same wild randomness still exists and for me that will be the deal breaker.
It comes down to an individual play ... you always have to have SOME probability that a guy, even the best tackler in the world, slips and misses a tackle.
It is not true that for every play and matchup decision point that if there is a clear advantage, the better team should aways get a good result. That is just not how a 60 minute game is played. Here is a completely dominated game where one team is the best team in the nation and the other is one of the worst in Div-1A.
Western Kentucky vs Alabama
Alabama only had one interception in 31 Western pass attempts. Western sacked the Alabama QB 6 times, Alabama only averaged 3.3 yards per rush. Western had 2 stuffs of -5 and -7 yards on the Alabama RBs. Western RBs had rushes of 15, 9, 6 yards. The Western QB completed 65% of his passes for 9 yards per completion.
It is hard to find a bigger differential in "Player Attributes" than this in a game but even in this game Alabama did not win every matchup on offense and defense on every play ... even though Alabama certainly did win every player attribute matchup at every single decision point.