All Forums > Hardball Dynasty Baseball > Hardball Dynasty > Bringing up prospects too early?
3/7/2013 5:17 PM
Mercado, Martin, Springer, Molina, Douglass were my first 5.
3/7/2013 6:47 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/7/2013 3:44:00 PM (view original):
No, you're losing 5 starts from a SP or 80 AB from a position player in a season where those could be difference-makers in hopes that the money saved is a difference-maker is season's to come.    Anyway, after missing the playoffs by 1-3 games more times than I care to think about, holding a good player back for the future seems like a bad idea. 

I call up Star Prospect A toward the end of the season and the playoffs. I get 50 ABs out of him and next year he's my starter.

You call up Star Prospect B after 20 games. You get 450 ABs out of him and next year he's your starter.

The cost and service time implications are basically the same. Only you get an extra 400 ABs. We're both in the same boat in Season X + 1, but you have a big advantage in season X.
3/7/2013 7:05 PM

OK, I'll try this another way.

20 game call-up.
327, 343, 360, 378, arb, arb, 5y LT
Start of season.
327, 343, 360. arb. arb. 5y LT

20gcu saves about 800k in S4, very little in S5 and keeps the player, definitely, for one extra season.    So, IMO, one saves around 1m overall for 10 seasons and definitely gets that extra season.  However, if one misses the playoffs in that first season by 1-2 games by using an inferior player, I think it's the wrong call.

Of course, all this is contingent on the player being "special" or, at the very least, a difference-maker.    Just making it simple, keeping a 78 down while playing a 77 isn't much a difference.   Playing, or pitching, a 68 while holding back an 80, is. 

3/7/2013 7:22 PM
If I use a 20gcu, I spend about 3M (300k + 350k + 350k +350k + 1.6M) to have a player for 5 years. Over that time, I will get about 500 + 4*600 = 2900 ABs.

If I don't use a 20gcu, I spend about 7M (350k + 350k +350k +1.6M + 4.5M) to have a player for 5 years. Over that time, I will get about 5*600 = 3000 ABs

Seems a little silly to pay 4M for 100 ABs.

Any way you slice it, a free year is a big advantage. There's times when it's not the best move, but it's a massive economic advantage that outweighs a lot of other considerations.
3/7/2013 7:31 PM
But your intention isn't to keep the player for 5 years.  It's to keep him 10 or 11.    The money you save is nothing.
3/7/2013 7:37 PM
I think our difference of opinion comes from the way we're looking at it.   I'm looking at the back end of his career, when he's sliding down, and you're looking at the front end cost. 

I don't necessarily think either is wrong.  I just think throwing away 20 games is a big mistake many, many owners make to get that year when the player is on the decline.
3/7/2013 9:01 PM (edited)
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/7/2013 7:05:00 PM (view original):

OK, I'll try this another way.

20 game call-up.
327, 343, 360, 378, arb, arb, 5y LT
Start of season.
327, 343, 360. arb. arb. 5y LT

20gcu saves about 800k in S4, very little in S5 and keeps the player, definitely, for one extra season.    So, IMO, one saves around 1m overall for 10 seasons and definitely gets that extra season.  However, if one misses the playoffs in that first season by 1-2 games by using an inferior player, I think it's the wrong call.

Of course, all this is contingent on the player being "special" or, at the very least, a difference-maker.    Just making it simple, keeping a 78 down while playing a 77 isn't much a difference.   Playing, or pitching, a 68 while holding back an 80, is. 

I'm 3 games out of the wildcard. My #1 pick could definitely help me out this season. And being able to put him in my rotation, and add some depth to my bullpen could probably win me a couple games more. I'm waiting to pull the trigger. Am I correct in my assumption that his Patience (and makeup?) assures or makes it extremely likely that he will stay with me for a 2nd extension?  

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ellis Brock
3/7/2013 8:50 PM
Assume he won't and go from there.  Assuming the worst means you'll be better prepared if he bolts.
3/8/2013 12:52 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/7/2013 7:37:00 PM (view original):
I think our difference of opinion comes from the way we're looking at it.   I'm looking at the back end of his career, when he's sliding down, and you're looking at the front end cost. 

I don't necessarily think either is wrong.  I just think throwing away 20 games is a big mistake many, many owners make to get that year when the player is on the decline.
I do agree that there are different ways to skin the cat and a lot of it probably depends on how you structure payroll, etc.

However, take this example and I think you will see that (at least in some cases) it's really not "losing" 20 games, but "gaining" 140 games:

Here would be a standard way to progress prospects, call it Scenario 1:
1st pro year: HiA
2nd pro year: AA
3rd pro year: AAA
4th pro year: Start the year in ML, 1st year of service time

Compare it with Scenario 2:
1st pro year: HiA
2nd pro year: AA
3rd pro year: AAA for 20 games, then ML
4th pro year: Start the year in ML, 1st year of service time

From the 4th year on, it's exactly the same. The difference is that I get 140 free games in year 3. I can take whatever money I would spend on a starter in Scenario 1 and still spend in Scenario 2, only now that would-be starter can come off the bench or be part of a platoon and I have a lot more depth.

An example of this was how I promoted  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Esmailyn Maduro ; I wanted him to start in S22, but by promoting him in S21, I could use him as a starter (technically, the right-hand of a 1B platoon) and bring the declining but still productive  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Del Perez off the bench, which is a nice luxury.

Without the loophole, I would have just started Perez the whole year and been okay, but bringing Maduro up probably produced an extra 10-15 runs in S21, and didn't affect anything from S22 onward. Now there's definitely situations where it doesn't make sense to do it. But in a lot of cases, it's a pretty substantial advantage.
3/8/2013 9:34 AM
Posted by dmurphy104 on 3/7/2013 9:01:00 PM (view original):
Posted by MikeT23 on 3/7/2013 7:05:00 PM (view original):

OK, I'll try this another way.

20 game call-up.
327, 343, 360, 378, arb, arb, 5y LT
Start of season.
327, 343, 360. arb. arb. 5y LT

20gcu saves about 800k in S4, very little in S5 and keeps the player, definitely, for one extra season.    So, IMO, one saves around 1m overall for 10 seasons and definitely gets that extra season.  However, if one misses the playoffs in that first season by 1-2 games by using an inferior player, I think it's the wrong call.

Of course, all this is contingent on the player being "special" or, at the very least, a difference-maker.    Just making it simple, keeping a 78 down while playing a 77 isn't much a difference.   Playing, or pitching, a 68 while holding back an 80, is. 

I'm 3 games out of the wildcard. My #1 pick could definitely help me out this season. And being able to put him in my rotation, and add some depth to my bullpen could probably win me a couple games more. I'm waiting to pull the trigger. Am I correct in my assumption that his Patience (and makeup?) assures or makes it extremely likely that he will stay with me for a 2nd extension?  

 Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ellis Brock
I never count on the 2nd extension.   But, with this guy, you can always demote him before ST next season and go about roster manipulation.   He has all his options and, if you choose, you can remove him from your 40 with a no WW designation. 
3/8/2013 9:37 AM
JTR, I'm obviously not being clear.    I contend that you're throwing away 20 games in his first BL season.   You contend that you gain 140 games in his career with your team.   We're both right. 

He misses 20 games, under your scenario, in his first BL season.   10 against your division.  If he's a difference-maker and you fall 1-2 games short of a playoff spot, it's not worth the 140 games you'll get in S11 of his BL career.
3/8/2013 9:59 AM
 I've decided to bring him up. I have a worthless pitcher in the bullpen that should be cut. And can drop a decent pitcher from the rotation to be used in long relief or a possible tandem situation.
3/8/2013 6:52 PM
Good move IMO. I'm always a believer in bringing up your best prospects as soon as you can justify starting them.
3/13/2013 4:35 PM
I think it all depends on the makeup of your team.  If your calling up a prospect that's going to be a SP5, and you have high durability SPs or a good LRA that can cover a couple starts, then why not wait to bring him up.  I waited 20 games to bring up  Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Nick Biddle this season because my other pitchers could pick up his slack for 20 games.  However, if the guy is clearly going to be your SP1 or a key position play I think you need to bring him up right away.  
3/13/2013 11:34 PM
If he's going to be an SP1, it's all the more reason to get a free year out of him.
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