Bryant DIII - Season 88 Playoffs Preview
I'm going to try and follow Elkhour's format of going through the brackets one by one, first ranking the teams in the individual bracket using Bisoneer's Power Rankings. The format is School (seeding) (overall rating, offense rating-offense rank in this bracket, defense rating-defense rank in this bracket). Then throw in few comments, and end with Upset Alert and Prediction. At the end I will compare the 4 brackets and rank them among each other in terms of talent (teams average rating) and competitiveness (standard deviation to show how close the team ratings are to each other)
*If you compare this to previous seasons, please note I am using the BPR and not the EPR. This is the cause for a lower average team rating than you may be used to seeing.
North Bracket
BPR:
1. Concordia (WI) (2) (563, 564-2, 561-1)
2. Loras (1) (560, 567-1, 552-2)
3. Wisconsin-Platteville (3) (532, 541-3, 523-3)
4. Colorado (5) (526, 540-4, 512-4)
5. Muhlenberg (6) (514, 519-5, 509-5)
6. Fairleigh Dickinson (4) (504, 501-7, 508-6)
7. Benedictine (8) (501, 505-6, 497-7)
8. Capital (7) (493, 494-8, 493-8)
Four teams in the North bracket have won a National Championship within the past 10 seasons: Loras, Concordia (WI), Wisconsin-Platteville, and Fairleigh Dickinson. Colorado has also been competitive at the national level for a number of seasons. Loras is the only team to enter the bracket without a tally in the L column, and Wisonsin-Platteville's only loss is to Loras and Colorado's only loss to Wisconsin-Platteville. Concordia (WI) and Benedictine both represent the IBFC and split their previous two games. Benedictine's upset of the then #1 Concordia (WI) is what earned them a slot in the playoffs. Does Benedictine have what it takes to knock off the #1 team once more?
Upset Alert: Benedictine (8) vs Loras (1)
Prediction: Concordia (WI) (2) beats Loras (1) to win the bracket
South Bracket
BPR:
1. Ferrum (1) (576, 578-1, 574-1)
2. Gettysburg (3) (565, 568-2, 561-2)
3. Linfield (6) (540, 539-4, 541-4)
4. St. Olaf (4) (538, 532-5, 545-3)
5. Guilford (5) (536, 544-3, 528-5)
6. Ohio Wesleyan (2) (502, 500-6, 504-6)
7. Whitworth (8) (484, 479-8, 489-7)
8. Cortland (7) (475, 488-7, 462-8)
The south division is the only bracket not to have an undefeated team represented. However, it does contain a number of teams that have become very familiar with the playoffs. Gettysburg enters it's 19th consecutive post-season, Ferrum it's 18th, St. Olaf it's 10th and Linfield it's 7th. Ferrum and Gettysburg are definitely the favorites on paper to advance to the regional finals, but don't be surprised if Ohio Wesleyan or St. Olaf is able to snag one of those spots as they've both have very strong seasons with their only blemish being one loss.
Upset Alert: Linfield (6) vs Gettysburg (3)
Prediction: Ferrum (1) defeats Gettysburg (3) to make the final four
East Bracket
BPR:
1. Mount Union (4) (558, 556-1, 561-1)
2. MIT (2) (534, 529-2, 540-2)
3. Union (NY) (5) (531, 528-3, 535-3)
4. Merchant Marine (1) (523, 521-4, 526-5)
5. Methodist (7) (521, 519-5, 524-6)
6. Macalester (6) (521, 507-6, 534-4)
7. Oberlin (3) (498, 495-8, 501-7)
8. St. Norbert (8) (485, 501-7, 469-8)
Merchant Marine enters the East region with the best record (14-0) but there are a number of teams in the bracket with the talent to challenge them. MIT, Mount Union, and Oberlin each suffered just one loss this season. Union (NY) has suffered 3 losses this season, all to teams that also made the post-season. However, Union (NY) had notable wins vs Benedictine, Muhlenberg, and MIT. Macalester is another team that faced stiff in-season competition, including wins vs Benedictine and Gettysburg. The East is has a lot of teams that can compete and should make for an exciting bracket to follow.
Upset Alert: Macalester (6) vs Oberlin (3)
Prediction: Mount Union (4) beats MIT (2) in a nail-biter to win the region
West Bracket
BPR:
1. Huntingdon (2) (568, 580-1, 556-1)
2. Austin (8) (549, 556-2, 542-3)
3. Menlo (1) (545, 553-3, 537-4)
4. Susquehanna (3) (537, 528-4, 547-2)
5. Case Western (6) (523, 523-5, 523-5)
6. Whittier (5) (512, 519-6, 506-6)
7. Bluffton (7) (502, 506-7, 498-7)
8. Maine Maritime (4) (484, 482-8, 487-8)
Wow! What a collection of teams we have in the West Region! "Air Raid" Menlo puts up video game numbers for passing stats and Huntingdon has just as much offensive talent (if not more). Those two teams put up an average of 62.6 and 58.1 points per game. On the other side of the spectrum you have Susquehanna and Austin, both defensive powerhouses allowing 11.1 and 12.4 points per game respectively. Not that Huntingdon or Menlo are strangers to defense, Huntingdon allows just 9.6 points per game while Menlo and Susquehanna's defenses are both averaging almost 3 picked passes a game. Between the top 4 seeds, only one team has even suffered a loss (Susquehanna lost to FDU in the MAC Championship). Unfortunately for the remaining teams of Case Western, Whittier, and Bluffton, it's going to be an uphill battle to make it out of this bracket that ranks #1 in talent.
Upset Alert: Austin (8) vs Menlo (1)
Prediction: Huntingdon (2) takes down Austin (8) to advance
Bracket Comparison:
Ranking by Talent (average of team ratings)
1. West (527.5)
2. South (526.8)
3. North (524.1)
4. East (521.5)
Ranking by Competitiveness (standard deviation of team ratings)
1. East (22.49)
2. North (26.22)
3. West (27.37)
4. South (36.54)
Final Four Prediction:
With the teams I picked above we have Concordia (WI) vs Ferrum and Mount Union vs Huntingdon. I say the final 4 will follow the BPR ratings and Ferrum defeats Huntingdon to bring home the title.
Good luck to everyone in the playoffs!
3/19/2013 1:46 AM (edited)