All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > SUCK IT, PATSIES!!
3/22/2013 12:03 PM
Posted by bistiza on 3/22/2013 11:43:00 AM (view original):
That's funny because I'm looking at the thread right now, and would be glad to come back and look at the thread again whenever I next get the chance. So to say I wouldn't look is completely false.
You wouldn't look at the example of Brady showing the skills you don't think he has.
3/22/2013 1:07 PM
So you're somehow able to watch and remember every play of every game by every QB?

Of course not.  Very few people would have the time and the desire to do this, as it is quite impractical.

However, one doesn't need to see every play in which a QB is on the field in order to assess his play with at least some degree of accuracy.

It also depends upon what you are measuring, for example, are you looking at his play in one specific game, in one season, or over a whole career. The larger the sample size, the greater the accuracy (as with many such things), but you can analyze patterns of play over whatever period of time and attempt to draw conclusions.

For example, I have noticed many of the plays Brady participates in which have been successful (to some extent at least) have not required him to use any exceptional skills at all, and the success of the play has primarily hinged upon the skills of someone else.

In fact, this is a VERY COMMON thing for the Patriots and for Brady, and it is what helps facilitate his hype. The team will win the game and the statistics will be there for Brady, but very few people will note that any competent NFL QB could have made most of the same plays Brady did if they were in the same circumstances.

When you only look at team success (which is a very bad way to evaluate an individual player, even a QB) or typical statistics, it's easy to over rate the players on winning teams and those who have an abundance of talent around them to make them look better than they are.
You wouldn't look at the example of Brady showing the skills you don't think he has.

I have looked at everything presented to me here in this thread.
3/22/2013 1:18 PM
False.
3/22/2013 1:28 PM
It's interesting that you share your opinion (often unwanted) on so many different things, including things you admittedly don't know a lot about.  Yet you refuse to speak about one particular thing that's specifically asked of you.  After almost 3 months, I'm getting bored of the Brady talk, I'm trying to change the subject.  If you don't want to defend your argument re: Rodgers, that's cool, I'll assume you feel you can't do it successfully.
3/22/2013 2:08 PM
These are discussion boards, burnsy, so people discuss things. Often that includes their opinions on whatever the topic may be.

I'm not different than anyone else in this regard. I like to discuss a wide variety of topics, as do many people on here and other message boards across the internet.

You have no way of knowing whether or not my opinion is wanted by anyone other than yourself, and even if you do, it's a moot point. Everyone is entitled to have and express whatever opinion they want; anyone who tries to stop them is simply being ignorant.

I don't refuse to speak about Rodgers; I simply refuse to speak about him until you honor my request regarding Brady. This is quite logical considering my request took place first.

I'm not here to entertain you, so you'll have to forgive me if I'm not convinced to dive right into your subject change because my failure to do so might lead to your boredom. Also, I do not care if you assume I can't successfully argue a point I've never even attempted to argue in the first place.

Again, when you want to answer the same question for Brady, after that I will consider doing so for Rodgers. Don't bother asking me again unless you've already done it for Brady, because I'll ignore it.
3/22/2013 2:26 PM
Posted by bistiza on 3/22/2013 1:07:00 PM (view original):
So you're somehow able to watch and remember every play of every game by every QB?

Of course not.  Very few people would have the time and the desire to do this, as it is quite impractical.

However, one doesn't need to see every play in which a QB is on the field in order to assess his play with at least some degree of accuracy.

It also depends upon what you are measuring, for example, are you looking at his play in one specific game, in one season, or over a whole career. The larger the sample size, the greater the accuracy (as with many such things), but you can analyze patterns of play over whatever period of time and attempt to draw conclusions.

For example, I have noticed many of the plays Brady participates in which have been successful (to some extent at least) have not required him to use any exceptional skills at all, and the success of the play has primarily hinged upon the skills of someone else.

In fact, this is a VERY COMMON thing for the Patriots and for Brady, and it is what helps facilitate his hype. The team will win the game and the statistics will be there for Brady, but very few people will note that any competent NFL QB could have made most of the same plays Brady did if they were in the same circumstances.

When you only look at team success (which is a very bad way to evaluate an individual player, even a QB) or typical statistics, it's easy to over rate the players on winning teams and those who have an abundance of talent around them to make them look better than they are.
You wouldn't look at the example of Brady showing the skills you don't think he has.

I have looked at everything presented to me here in this thread.
But you don't have access to full field video showing all 11 players at once.

And you don't always know what play was called and what routes the receivers were supposed to run.

And you haven't seen all the plays.

And every professional evaluator, many with access to film and info that you don't, thinks Brady is a great QB.

And the stats, the traditional stats and the advanced ones that give you defense adjusted numbers, all point to Brady as a great QB.

So what is it that you see, in your limited viewing and limited experience, that everyone else is missing?
3/22/2013 2:42 PM
Posted by bistiza on 3/22/2013 2:08:00 PM (view original):
These are discussion boards, burnsy, so people discuss things. Often that includes their opinions on whatever the topic may be.

I'm not different than anyone else in this regard. I like to discuss a wide variety of topics, as do many people on here and other message boards across the internet.

You have no way of knowing whether or not my opinion is wanted by anyone other than yourself, and even if you do, it's a moot point. Everyone is entitled to have and express whatever opinion they want; anyone who tries to stop them is simply being ignorant.

I don't refuse to speak about Rodgers; I simply refuse to speak about him until you honor my request regarding Brady. This is quite logical considering my request took place first.

I'm not here to entertain you, so you'll have to forgive me if I'm not convinced to dive right into your subject change because my failure to do so might lead to your boredom. Also, I do not care if you assume I can't successfully argue a point I've never even attempted to argue in the first place.

Again, when you want to answer the same question for Brady, after that I will consider doing so for Rodgers. Don't bother asking me again unless you've already done it for Brady, because I'll ignore it.
I'm not being argumentative.  I said it was interesting that you'll discuss almost everything football related, including things you admittedly don't know much about, yet won't discuss this, when you stated that you do have a strong opinion.  I'm assuming it's because you can't back up your argument.  That's all.
3/22/2013 3:20 PM
But you don't have access to full field video showing all 11 players at once.
Most times this isn't necessary. Yes, there can sometimes be key action going on away from the ball, such as key blocks and other information. However, determining who is responsible for the success or lack thereof on any given play is usually fairly easy (which is why I find it so absurd that only a small number of people realize how over rated Brady is given how little gain he offers to the plays that are successful compared with an average NFL QB).
And you don't always know what play was called and what routes the receivers were supposed to run.
True, but you don't usually need that information to be able to tell who made the mistake on a blown play or whose skills were on display in a successful one.
And every professional evaluator, many with access to film and info that you don't, thinks Brady is a great QB.
No, they don't. Some people, including "professionals" don't think he's as great as they hype makes him out to be. We've been over that before - not everyone agrees on just about anything in sports, including Brady.
And the stats, the traditional stats and the advanced ones that give you defense adjusted numbers, all point to Brady as a great QB.
The stats are limited in their ability to show the skills of the QB. I just said this a few posts ago.

Also, the stats don't show what you seem to think they show (partly because of that limitation to show skills). We were over this before too.
So what is it that you see, in your limited viewing and limited experience, that everyone else is missing?
Let's clarify a few things:

First, "everyone else" isn't missing anything. Many people buy into the Brady hype, either on purpose or because they can't help it. Many others do not. I'm far from the only person who has ever suggested Brady is over rated or isn't as good as he's made out to be, so please stop acting like that's the case.

Second, I watch a lot of NFL games and have seen a lot of Patriots games where Brady was QB. This isn't all of them by any means, but it is enough to make a determination on his skills. So to classify my viewing as "limited" is a bit short sighted.

So having said that...

I see what actually happens, and I've discussed it at length before.

For example, there are many plays in which the offensive line never lets Brady get touched, and he completes a pass with no pressure whatsoever. On most of those, any competent NFL QB could have made the same pass.

There is almost always someone who is assigned to simply be open in case of pressure, so Brady can look right to that guy and get him the ball quickly. This has often been Wes Welker (hence his high reception totals) but at times it has been others as well. Again, on many of these plays, any competent NFL QB could have done the same thing.

Let's take a SPECIFIC example most people could remember: The very first Super Bowl win for the Patriots under Brady. Brady gets credit for leading a game winning drive, and yet none of the plays he made on that drive were exceptional. You could literally have plugged any number of competent NFL QBs into that role and gotten the same result, yet since it was Brady, he was lauded as game MVP and the next big thing.

How much value does a QB have over an average, competent NFL QB, on play after play? That's what tells you how great he is.

The bottom line is in most situations you could replace Brady with an average, competent NFL QB who would probably be able to have done the same thing given the same exact circumstances. This isn't true of virtually any other QB widely considered to be great, as they all display uncommon skills on a fairly regular basis. 

Not so with Brady. He's the king of the mundane. Yet so many people think he's something special and great, and THAT is why I say he's over rated.
3/22/2013 6:12 PM
Posted by bistiza on 3/22/2013 3:20:00 PM (view original):
But you don't have access to full field video showing all 11 players at once.
Most times this isn't necessary. Yes, there can sometimes be key action going on away from the ball, such as key blocks and other information. However, determining who is responsible for the success or lack thereof on any given play is usually fairly easy (which is why I find it so absurd that only a small number of people realize how over rated Brady is given how little gain he offers to the plays that are successful compared with an average NFL QB).
And you don't always know what play was called and what routes the receivers were supposed to run.
True, but you don't usually need that information to be able to tell who made the mistake on a blown play or whose skills were on display in a successful one.
And every professional evaluator, many with access to film and info that you don't, thinks Brady is a great QB.
No, they don't. Some people, including "professionals" don't think he's as great as they hype makes him out to be. We've been over that before - not everyone agrees on just about anything in sports, including Brady.
And the stats, the traditional stats and the advanced ones that give you defense adjusted numbers, all point to Brady as a great QB.
The stats are limited in their ability to show the skills of the QB. I just said this a few posts ago.

Also, the stats don't show what you seem to think they show (partly because of that limitation to show skills). We were over this before too.
So what is it that you see, in your limited viewing and limited experience, that everyone else is missing?
Let's clarify a few things:

First, "everyone else" isn't missing anything. Many people buy into the Brady hype, either on purpose or because they can't help it. Many others do not. I'm far from the only person who has ever suggested Brady is over rated or isn't as good as he's made out to be, so please stop acting like that's the case.

Second, I watch a lot of NFL games and have seen a lot of Patriots games where Brady was QB. This isn't all of them by any means, but it is enough to make a determination on his skills. So to classify my viewing as "limited" is a bit short sighted.

So having said that...

I see what actually happens, and I've discussed it at length before.

For example, there are many plays in which the offensive line never lets Brady get touched, and he completes a pass with no pressure whatsoever. On most of those, any competent NFL QB could have made the same pass.

There is almost always someone who is assigned to simply be open in case of pressure, so Brady can look right to that guy and get him the ball quickly. This has often been Wes Welker (hence his high reception totals) but at times it has been others as well. Again, on many of these plays, any competent NFL QB could have done the same thing.

Let's take a SPECIFIC example most people could remember: The very first Super Bowl win for the Patriots under Brady. Brady gets credit for leading a game winning drive, and yet none of the plays he made on that drive were exceptional. You could literally have plugged any number of competent NFL QBs into that role and gotten the same result, yet since it was Brady, he was lauded as game MVP and the next big thing.

How much value does a QB have over an average, competent NFL QB, on play after play? That's what tells you how great he is.

The bottom line is in most situations you could replace Brady with an average, competent NFL QB who would probably be able to have done the same thing given the same exact circumstances. This isn't true of virtually any other QB widely considered to be great, as they all display uncommon skills on a fairly regular basis. 

Not so with Brady. He's the king of the mundane. Yet so many people think he's something special and great, and THAT is why I say he's over rated.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


How much value does a QB have over an average, competent NFL QB, on play after play? That's what tells you how great he is. 

And we finally get somewhere. We have a stat for that: DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value Over Average).

Defined as: 
This number represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player's performance. 

How does Brady rank in DVOA?

2012- 1st
2011- 3rd (behind Rodgers and Brees)
2010- 1st
2009- 2nd (behind Rivers)
2008- Injured
2007- 1st
2006- 10th
2005- 5th
2004- 4th



3/22/2013 10:59 PM
******* joke.
3/23/2013 2:37 PM
In other news, Ted Johnson goes on the radio and calls Wilfork's wife the ugliest in the NFL, thinking Wilfork wouldn't hear it. What a moron.
3/24/2013 1:59 PM
Ted Johnson is a pile of ****.  
3/25/2013 9:15 AM
And we finally get somewhere. We have a stat for that: DVOA (Defense Adjusted Value Over Average).


This "stat" is a joke. If I want to I can make up stats that say the opposite of what this says, and it all means nothing.

Brady's lack of skills and abilities are obvious when you watch him play and even attempt to compare him to anyone with real skills. He relies on a system and the talent of others, then gets the hype assigned to him by people like you who place all their faith in team wins and statistics that don't show what you think they show.

3/25/2013 9:37 AM
This "stat" is a joke. If I want to I can make up stats that say the opposite of what this says, and it all means nothing.

Rodgers's lack of skills and abilities are obvious when you watch him play and even attempt to compare him to anyone with real skills. He relies on a system and the talent of others, then gets the hype assigned to him by people like you who place all their faith in team wins and statistics that don't show what you think they show.


Look at all the evidence I just presented!

3/25/2013 9:41 AM
You keep trying to make this about Rodgers and it isn't. Discuss Brady first, then we'll deal with Rodgers.
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