Posted by MikeT23 on 3/25/2013 8:25:00 AM (view original):
How are total bases calculated? I've always thought it was start at home and, if you get a single, you get one total base. A double is two, etc, etc.
How is a leadoff single and a SB different than a double?
I outlined that difference above-- they don't lead to the same number of runs, because they don't advance other runners in the same way.
But the core of your argument is right. If you analyze historical data to evaluate what kinds of offensive events lead to how many runs, a single and a SB have generated almost exactly 90% as many runs as a double (Analysts-- I'm using Linear Weights here). If you drop 2 SB for each CS, and multiply the remaining "extra" SB by 0.9, that would still leave this guy with about 1400 bases lying around, for an "adjusted" OPS of about .370/.525.
This guy will create runs at a rate much, much closer to a typical guy with a 900 OPS than one with his actual 700 OPS. He's a legit Hall of Fame nominee, if not necessarily a Hall of Famer.