Posted by kevin_w64 on 4/28/2013 3:57:00 PM (view original):
I recently built a resume in Knight so that when the team I want becomes available I can apply for it. 15-20 seasons to get to D1 team or even a Big 6 team is an over exaggeration. I spent 1 season at a D3 program, then 5 seasons at a D2 program. I stayed longer at D2 than I needed. 4 seasons at a D1 school and I was able to get GT in the ACC. I ended up getting busy and forgot to renew so I lost them after 1 season, but CS put me back to my lower D1 school. I had to rebuild my resume, but after 5 seasons I was qualified for another Big 6 school.
I have just started the process in Phelan so I will have two chances at getting the other D1 team I want. I am a mediocre coach, but I expect to be at a Big 6 school in less than 10 seasons.
you just recently won what, 3 titles in 7 seasons, in a very competitive d1 tark? how long it takes you to move up isnt really going to be a representative sample. i dont think 15-20 seasons to replace an A prestige big 6 job is unreasonable for the public at all. some coaches can move up faster, to d1, but many have to take some time, maybe waiting to hit 200 wins. for a highly competitive coach, i could easily see a path like this:
1 season at d3, move up to a decent d2 job
5 seasons at d2, assuming some rebuild is needed when you are sort of last pick (from only 1 season in d3), culminating in a few NT appearances and a decent run or two, to allow moving up to d1 (with so few wins, more than simple back to back NT1 or NT2 spots is kind of needed). move up to a d+ prestige mid major
6 seasons at a d1 mid major, to get eligible for a low end BCS job. an awesome performance could make it happen in 4, but unless you walk into a dream situation, you usually have to rebuild and then make a few NTs, i think 6 seasons is pretty good - and with a couple bumps, i could see more. the coach still probably doesnt even have 300 wins at this point.
6 seasons to rebuild the low end BCS job to an A prestige. that is a fantastic job, if you ask me.
thats 18 seasons, and i think thats a pretty damn solid performance. in your case, which i dont think you can assume everyone else can do, you took 6 seasons to get to d1 (as in my example), 4 seasons to get to GT (which is really good) - but thats 10 seasons, and you just started a BCS rebuild. after 5 seasons you were qualified for another big 6 school - thats 15 seasons. and what prestige did you end with? regardless you just described a highly competitive coach basically getting it done in 15. so how is 15-20 an over exaggeration?
a less successful coach, one for whom getting an A prestige BCS job is one of their bigger accomplishments, can *easily* take 8 seasons to get to d1, and 8 seasons just to go through the major rebuild, before even getting any BCS job. then, they can easily take 8 more to get the program rebuild up to like a B+ level. to me, 24 seasons is not an unreasonable scenario, and that wouldn't even have them all the way there.
the situation you get, what school you draw, how good the conference is, that is a huge factor. in a tough spot even a really good coach can't always rebuild as fast as you describe. i took south carolina over at a b-, with a huge SEC ACC disadvantage, and that was even a time when i was fairly into the game, relatively speaking. i did a really solid job turning them around, and plenty of good coaches wouldnt have been as successful. taking such a tough program to be really high successful, to a last second, 1 point loss away from back to back titles, thats probably the one performance ive had in the last 3+ years that i was actually happy with. but despite that - my first great team, good chance they were #1 in the country, built on a b+ prestige, which i was super happy with - they had a tough draw, drew a great team/coach in the sweet 16, and lost. as a result, it took me 7 seasons to get an A, and i lost it immediately - took me 10 seasons to be able to maintain an A.
so, i think unless you are an incredible coach, and have a dream run with almost no bumps or poor dice rolls, spending 15-20 seasons to retake a long time, high end big 6 job is far from an over exaggeration.
edit: maybe i see the confusion, in my post, i talked about how long it could take to get back a long time job, like an A prestige BCS job. and then in the conclusion i referenced it again, but didnt say A prestige or long time successful job there, just said, for the guy who has to give up the d1 job (i meant the same guy as mentioned earlier), it could take 15-20 seasons. which is true. if that guy is a guy who pre-dated the rule, and he DOESNT have an A prestige BCS job, well i would still make the same argument. if it took him that long to get a B prestige BCS job, it could take him 15-20 seasons to do it again, because each step will take longer than the guy who is able to maintain the A prestige program. and, i dont consider any of these 3 categories of teams to be equal replacements for the others: mid major, low end BCS, high end BCS.